Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[mahantango#1]

US National Weather Service State College

Unseasonably mild with occasional rain today

Rain ends late tonight; returns to start the weekend

Windy and colder with snow showers on Sunday

Slight warmup with no precipitation early next week

[mahantango#1]

Good discussion with DT and others.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

6z GFS is the Best run yet with more room for upside with a more tucked track.

Here’s the 6z GFS snow by the 16th.

[Blizzard of 93]

Lol, My old handbook says to take the GFS for the first chance & the 0z Euro for the one a few days later.

[WmsptWx]

50 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

6z GFS is the Best run yet with more room for upside with a more tucked track.

Here’s the 6z GFS snow by the 16th.

Oh look... Giant ass hole right where it always seems to be. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 36 with a trace of rain overnight.  My highs for today and tomorrow are now down to 52 and 44, quite the change.

[pasnownut]

21 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 36 with a trace of rain overnight.  My highs for today and tomorrow are now down to 52 and 44, quite the change.

I took advantage of the nice evening sans howling wind, and took christmas lights down last night as well as brought another load of wood down.  

Pattern looks loaded later next week and beyond.  Trough axis hurtin us as best qpf well off shore, but IF we can get better spacing and less progressive w/ the flow, it might give something a chance to spin up a nice miller A.  Going to be a lot of sorting out in the next few days, but it's fun to look at no matter the result. 

The chase is a big part of the fun for me.  

TGIF boys n girls.  

[paweather]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

I took advantage of the nice evening sans howling wind, and took christmas lights down last night as well as brought another load of wood down.  

Pattern looks loaded later next week and beyond.  Trough axis hurtin us as best qpf well off shore, but IF we can get better spacing and less progressive w/ the flow, it might give something a chance to spin up a nice miller A.  Going to be a lot of sorting out in the next few days, but it's fun to look at no matter the result. 

The chase is a big part of the fun for me.  

TGIF boys n girls.  

Hopefully I won’t need to chase somewhere else and can stay in Palmyra.

[ChescoWx]

Mild temperatures continue today with rain chances increasing this afternoon. A brief break in the rain tonight before we turn chillier with more rain tomorrow into Saturday night. Temperatures turn colder after Sunday with temperatures not too far from normal for mid-January before trending much colder by the end of next week into the weekend. We could see between 0.75” to 1” of rain tomorrow night. Winter weather opportunities start to ramp up by later next week.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

12z GFS with s solid look for next weekend after missing just wide right a couple days prior to that.

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said:

12z GFS with s solid look for next weekend after missing just wide right a couple days prior to that.

Was just coming to post this - man, the storm a few days earlier is THIS close to being an east coast nuke bomb. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Next Thursday through MLK weekend has incredible potential. Of course, I'll be heading to Florida in the middle of all of it. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Next Thursday through MLK weekend has incredible potential. Of course, I'll be heading to Florida in the middle of all of it. 

Have fun down there!  Next Thursday is my birthday so I'll be hoping for some nice action, both with weather and my wife 

[Itstrainingtime]

29 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Have fun down there!  Next Thursday is my birthday so I'll be hoping for some nice action, both with weather and my wife 

This post could have gotten several different reactions...all appropriate.  

[Voyager]

50 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Next Thursday through MLK weekend has incredible potential. Of course, I'll be heading to Florida in the middle of all of it. 

I'll trade places with you...lol

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

12z GFS with s solid look for next weekend after missing just wide right a couple days prior to that.

 

trough axis a bit more neg tilted thx to that 500 ull diving in.  I can see how this might go boom in next few runs if this look holds.  

1/15-16 looks like not much, but may still get a little appetizer in hopes for the main course to follow next weekend.  I hope to be watchin the Eagles in the snow.  (probably just jinxed them).  

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Was just coming to post this - man, the storm a few days earlier is THIS close to being an east coast nuke bomb. 

Yes it is.  You can see the energy and how close it is, but as we know all too well, when patterns change, sometimes the first one sets the table for the good stuff to follow.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Have fun down there!  Next Thursday is my birthday so I'll be hoping for some nice action, both with weather and my wife 

Which has better odds of happening???

 

 

[canderson]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Have fun down there!  Next Thursday is my birthday so I'll be hoping for some nice action, both with weather and my wife 

Cold weather, cold shoulder - same thing right? 

[Superstorm]

12z GFS with s solid look for next weekend after missing just wide right a couple days prior to that.

That is becoming a dream map!


.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

33 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

That is becoming a dream map!


.

Canadian is also a nice hit and Euro is a close miss.  The next week of tracking should be fun.

[Itstrainingtime]

17 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Canadian is also a nice hit and Euro is a close miss.  The next week of tracking should be fun.

Add the MU warminsta to the group who is invested in next weekend's storm. Says the event centered around Thursday will just be a frontal passage, but he's going to be issuing a first look outlook for next weekend on Tuesday. For him to say that now, he's onboard. (not that we need that but if HE'S onboard, it's telling.) 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Add the MU warminsta to the group who is invested in next weekend's storm. Says the event centered around Thursday will just be a frontal passage, but he's going to be issuing a first look outlook for next weekend on Tuesday. For him to say that now, he's onboard. (not that we need that but if HE'S onboard, it's telling.) 

Yeah I'm surprised by that but good to hear.

[mahantango#1]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Add the MU warminsta to the group who is invested in next weekend's storm. Says the event centered around Thursday will just be a frontal passage, but he's going to be issuing a first look outlook for next weekend on Tuesday. For him to say that now, he's onboard. (not that we need that but if HE'S onboard, it's telling.) 

DT is starting to get excited too. But I don't know if that includes Pennsylvania.

[Blizzard of 93]

18z GFS is a long duration Warning level event this run for next Sunday into Monday.

 

[mahantango#1]

From DT: 

ABOUT  JAN 15-16   only 6  days away ....  

You undoubtedly will see some dumb weather weenie  trying to play Jim Cantore  OR some  meteorologist  on TV or social media attempt to tell you that this thing is a week away blah blah blah . That is  Bullshit 

Remember folks the purpose of issuing  weather forecasts is to get the weather information out to people /businesses. organizations BEFORE  the event actually begins. 

If the data is correct the event begins on January 15 which is 6 days away -do the math 

Anybody telling you this is 7 or   8 days away is full of shit-  either they are  stupid  or too lazy to be bother so they  bullshitting you  hoping that  they dont have to work too hard.