Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[pasnownut]

14 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Overnight runs must have sucked lol

Or maybe you just need to go look.  Op and Ens guidance if believable, are looking fine IMO

Man6y peeps are just getting back to work to start the year.

I'm not postin maps, but verbatim and if verified, the GFS would have several chances of snow and ens pattern would support it.  Tellies arent too bad, but not sure the big trough in the east is going to lock in.

[anotherman]

To be completely fair - 
My first love when it comes to weather is snow. A close second is winter in general. And that is likely why MOST of us are here...
This is; however, the American Weather forum. It is not solely about winter weather. There is a very active tropical thread that has the "hot" tag during every US tropical threat/event. Others are here for Severe weather...there are a couple in the MA thread that almost exclusively post only during the spring/summer storm season. I'll add here that I enjoy tracking weather events that are not snow producers in our area...one of the greatest storms I've tracked in my lifetime was Sandy. 
I just want to make sure that we all respect what each person happens to enjoy. I will also say that complaining about winter weather won't gather much sympathy since most here are rooting for just that. Including cold weather. 

Maybe we should have separate central PA threads. Make a warm weather one for people rooting for 70s in January then I’ll know to stay far away from it.

[mahantango#1]

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

To be completely fair - 

My first love when it comes to weather is snow. A close second is winter in general. And that is likely why MOST of us are here...

This is; however, the American Weather forum. It is not solely about winter weather. There is a very active tropical thread that has the "hot" tag during every US tropical threat/event. Others are here for Severe weather...there are a couple in the MA thread that almost exclusively post only during the spring/summer storm season. I'll add here that I enjoy tracking weather events that are not snow producers in our area...one of the greatest storms I've tracked in my lifetime was Sandy. 

I just want to make sure that we all respect what each person happens to enjoy. I will also say that complaining about winter weather won't gather much sympathy since most here are rooting for just that. Including cold weather. 

Our forum clearly know the whos who on the board, from warmies, storm chasers, to snow hounds.  The last part is really all of it in a nutshell, yet every year, we hav to have this dialog.  While newbies have to figure out "how we roll", the ones that have been here forever should just do exactly what you state, and respect those of us who are now in "our time". 

Snow is much harder to get than warmth, and EVERYONE here knows it, and for us snow lovers, trackin snow and winter landscapes mean a lot to us.

Most of us don't wish it cold in July.  We just know better and let the warmies have their time.... 

[mahantango#1]

Yes i'm rooting for a big, big snowstorm. One that keeps people home for a few days. But constant cold without any threat of storms to me imo is a waste of the cold. Maybe if i'd see the sun more here this winter it wouldn't' be so bad. It just seems so dismal out.

this increase in daylight will definitely help me out. Harrisburg sunrise and sunset times:

<< Previous Month   Next Month >>

Date	Wkday	Sunrise		Sunset		Day Duration	Day  Difference	Solar Noon
		Time	Azimuth	Time	Azimuth			Time	Altitude:
Jan-01-2026	Thu	07:30:21 AM	119.97°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	16:52:14 PM	240.08°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	09 Hr 21 Min 52 Sec	+ 50 Sec	12:11:12 PM	26.80°
Jan-02-2026	Fri	07:30:28 AM	119.85°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	16:53:05 PM	240.21°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	09 Hr 22 Min 37 Sec	+ 44 Sec	12:11:40 PM	26.89°
Jan-03-2026	Sat	07:30:32 AM	119.72°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	16:53:57 PM	240.35°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	09 Hr 23 Min 24 Sec	+ 48 Sec	12:12:08 PM	26.99°
Jan-04-2026	Sun	07:30:34 AM	119.58°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	16:54:51 PM	240.49°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	09 Hr 24 Min 16 Sec	+ 52 Sec	12:12:35 PM	27.09°
Jan-05-2026	Mon	07:30:34 AM	119.42°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	16:55:45 PM	240.65°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	09 Hr 25 Min 11 Sec	+ 55 Sec	12:13:02 PM	27.21°
Jan-06-2026	Tue	07:30:31 AM	119.26°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	16:56:42 PM	240.82°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	09 Hr 26 Min 10 Sec	+ 59 Sec	12:13:28 PM	27.33°
Jan-07-2026	Wed	07:30:27 AM	119.09°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	16:57:39 PM	241.00°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	09 Hr 27 Min 12 Sec	+ 1 Min 02 Sec	12:13:54 PM	27.45°
Jan-08-2026	Thu	07:30:20 AM	118.91°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	16:58:38 PM	241.18°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	09 Hr 28 Min 18 Sec	+ 1 Min 06 Sec	12:14:19 PM	27.59°
Jan-09-2026	Fri	07:30:11 AM	118.71°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	16:59:38 PM	241.38°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	09 Hr 29 Min 27 Sec	+ 1 Min 09 Sec	12:14:44 PM	27.73°
Jan-10-2026	Sat	07:29:59 AM	118.51°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	17:00:39 PM	241.59°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	09 Hr 30 Min 39 Sec	+ 1 Min 13 Sec	12:15:08 PM	27.88°
Jan-11-2026	Sun	07:29:46 AM	118.30°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	17:01:41 PM	241.81°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	09 Hr 31 Min 55 Sec	+ 1 Min 16 Sec	12:15:32 PM	28.04°
Jan-12-2026	Mon	07:29:30 AM	118.08°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	17:02:44 PM	242.03°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	09 Hr 33 Min 14 Sec	+ 1 Min 19 Sec	12:15:55 PM	28.20°
Jan-13-2026	Tue	07:29:12 AM	117.85°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	17:03:49 PM	242.27°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	09 Hr 34 Min 37 Sec	+ 1 Min 22 Sec	12:16:18 PM	28.37°
Jan-14-2026	Wed	07:28:51 AM	117.60°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	17:04:54 PM	242.52°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	09 Hr 36 Min 02 Sec	+ 1 Min 25 Sec	12:16:40 PM	28.55°
Jan-15-2026	Thu	07:28:29 AM	117.36°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	17:06:00 PM	242.77°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	09 Hr 37 Min 30 Sec	+ 1 Min 28 Sec	12:17:01 PM	28.73°
Jan-16-2026	Fri	07:28:04 AM	117.10°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	17:07:06 PM	243.03°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	09 Hr 39 Min 01 Sec	+ 1 Min 31 Sec	12:17:22 PM	28.92°
Jan-17-2026	Sat	07:27:38 AM	116.83°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	17:08:14 PM	243.31°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	09 Hr 40 Min 36 Sec	+ 1 Min 34 Sec	12:17:42 PM	29.12°
Jan-18-2026	Sun	07:27:09 AM	116.55°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	17:09:22 PM	243.59°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	09 Hr 42 Min 12 Sec	+ 1 Min 37 Sec	12:18:01 PM	29.32°
Jan-19-2026	Mon	07:26:38 AM	116.27°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	17:10:30 PM	243.87°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	09 Hr 43 Min 52 Sec	+ 1 Min 40 Sec	12:18:19 PM	29.53°
Jan-20-2026	Tue	07:26:05 AM	115.98°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	17:11:40 PM	244.17°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	09 Hr 45 Min 34 Sec	+ 1 Min 42 Sec	12:18:37 PM	29.75°
Jan-21-2026	Wed	07:25:30 AM	115.67°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	17:12:50 PM	244.48°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	09 Hr 47 Min 19 Sec	+ 1 Min 45 Sec	12:18:54 PM	29.97°
Jan-22-2026	Thu	07:24:53 AM	115.36°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	17:14:00 PM	244.79°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	09 Hr 49 Min 07 Sec	+ 1 Min 47 Sec	12:19:10 PM	30.20°
Jan-23-2026	Fri	07:24:14 AM	115.05°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	17:15:11 PM	245.11°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	09 Hr 50 Min 57 Sec	+ 1 Min 50 Sec	12:19:26 PM	30.43°
Jan-24-2026	Sat	07:23:32 AM	114.72°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	17:16:22 PM	245.44°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	09 Hr 52 Min 49 Sec	+ 1 Min 52 Sec	12:19:40 PM	30.68°
Jan-25-2026	Sun	07:22:49 AM	114.39°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	17:17:34 PM	245.78°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	09 Hr 54 Min 44 Sec	+ 1 Min 55 Sec	12:19:54 PM	30.92°
Jan-26-2026	Mon	07:22:05 AM	114.05°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	17:18:45 PM	246.12°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	09 Hr 56 Min 40 Sec	+ 1 Min 57 Sec	12:20:07 PM	31.17°
Jan-27-2026	Tue	07:21:18 AM	113.70°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	17:19:57 PM	246.47°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	09 Hr 58 Min 39 Sec	+ 1 Min 59 Sec	12:20:19 PM	31.43°
Jan-28-2026	Wed	07:20:29 AM	113.35°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	17:21:10 PM	246.83°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	10 Hr 00 Min 40 Sec	+ 2 Min 01 Sec	12:20:31 PM	31.70°
Jan-29-2026	Thu	07:19:39 AM	112.99°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	17:22:22 PM	247.20°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	10 Hr 02 Min 43 Sec	+ 2 Min 03 Sec	12:20:42 PM	31.96°
Jan-30-2026	Fri	07:18:46 AM	112.62°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	17:23:35 PM	247.57°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	10 Hr 04 Min 48 Sec	+ 2 Min 05 Sec	12:20:51 PM	32.24°
Jan-31-2026	Sat	07:17:52 AM	112.24°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/East-Southeast.gif	17:24:48 PM	247.95°   http://www.world-timedate.com/images/West-Southwest.gif	10 Hr 06 Min 55 Sec	+ 2 Min 07 Sec	12:21:00 PM	32.52°

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 24.  I ended December with 4.7" of snow and 2.04" of total precipitation.  For the year, I recorded measurable precip on 135 days totaling 52.41", nearly 13" more than MDT's 39.69".  MDT ended the year with a mean temp of 54.3, exactly equal to its climate normal period average.  The Northeast has been dominating the national lows lately, with the latest iteration being won by Mt. Washington at -17.  A spot in Maine hit -27 the prior night.  Onward.

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 24.  I ended December with 4.7" of snow and 2.04" of total precipitation.  For the year, I recorded measurable precip on 135 days totaling 52.41", nearly 13" more than MDT's 39.69".  MDT ended the year with a mean temp of 54.3, exactly equal to its climate normal period average.  The Northeast has been dominating the national lows lately, with the latest iteration being won by Mt. Washington at -17.  A spot in Maine hit -27 the prior night.  Onward.

Thank you for sharing!

My final 2025 precip came out to 54.27". Interesting in that I'm closer to MDT than you but still managed more total precip even though amounts dropped off significantly to my NW. 

My seasonal snowfall stands at 5.8". 

[Voyager]

I'll add that while I have a general disdain for winter, I still enjoy tracking the big dogs. When it comes to a straight up Miller A or KU storm, I'm right there with the rest of you rooting it on. I'm a go big or go home person.

I just don't care for prolonged arctic outbreaks, small nuisance storms, mixed events, endless cloudy days, and most of all, the ice at work.

[pasnownut]

Nooner GFS gave me some tingles..

SS now showing up in a nice way and just need NS to play along timing wise.  I'll be watching.

 

and fwiw, I pulled my groin pretty bad while slipping on ice under the snow at cabin....but I'm not gonna complain, nor will i ask for any of you to give my inner thigh a massage.  I'll get over it.   

Our group of 6 slipped and fell at least a dozen times in total while trekking the north woods for a couple days.  I had 2 falls that if were recorded....I'd be a social media sensation with a gazillion likes.  

[WmsptWx]

5 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Or maybe you just need to go look.  Op and Ens guidance if believable, are looking fine IMO

Man6y peeps are just getting back to work to start the year.

I'm not postin maps, but verbatim and if verified, the GFS would have several chances of snow and ens pattern would support it.  Tellies arent too bad, but not sure the big trough in the east is going to lock in.

Not sure what the moodiness is about but you know goddamned well nine times out of ten if the 2AM run showed anything of note, it's posted on here. 

[canderson]

The wintry December I think has morphed minds. 

I’ve heard 5 people today talk about spring fever. 

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, WmsptWx said:

Not sure what the moodiness is about but you know goddamned well nine times out of ten if the 2AM run showed anything of note, it's posted on here. 

its just about the moodiness.....

 

[pasnownut]

if ens guidance has a clue we have a window of opp coming, but not sure how long it holds. Twds the end, Pac looks better but with NAO headed pos, not sure how deep cold will be.    AO highly questionable, but verbatim would be slightly neg.  to my eyes, MJO low amp is muted signal, so I guess it really is up in the air, but lets focus on next week and see how this cookie crumbles.  Not great...not horrible.

 

 

 

 

[AMDEW80]

4 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Nooner GFS gave me some tingles..

SS now showing up in a nice way and just need NS to play along timing wise.  I'll be watching.

 

and fwiw, I pulled my groin pretty bad while slipping on ice under the snow at cabin....but I'm not gonna complain, nor will i ask for any of you to give my inner thigh a massage.  I'll get over it.   

Our group of 6 slipped and fell at least a dozen times in total while trekking the north woods for a couple days.  I had 2 falls that if were recorded....I'd be a social media sensation with a gazillion likes.  

Yea, still very icy up here, I for one am ready for the warm up this week, really hoping it will get rid of the ice.  My driveway and sidewalks are still a sheet of ice! Almost falling every time you go outside is getting very old.  However after this melts, I’m ready for plenty more cold and snow… just hoping for no more ice like this! 

[pasnownut]

43 minutes ago, AMDEW80 said:

Yea, still very icy up here, I for one am ready for the warm up this week, really hoping it will get rid of the ice.  My driveway and sidewalks are still a sheet of ice! Almost falling every time you go outside is getting very old.  However after this melts, I’m ready for plenty more cold and snow… just hoping for no more ice like this! 

Be careful up there. After this past weekend, we agreed it was some of the worst getting around in the hills that we've seen in some time. 

I agree, the warmup is going to be welcome for the northers, in hopes that the ice layer takes a beating.  Like yours, my driveway was a mess up there.  I didnt do a great job of plowing/cleaining driveway, because my UTV couldnt get through it.  I feel bad for the animals that cant get through it for overwinter browse.  One farm we know lost a cow Friday as it fell and broke stuff.  Hard on them too.  

[AMDEW80]

46 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Be careful up there. After this past weekend, we agreed it was some of the worst getting around in the hills that we've seen in some time. 

I agree, the warmup is going to be welcome for the northers, in hopes that the ice layer takes a beating.  Like yours, my driveway was a mess up there.  I didnt do a great job of plowing/cleaining driveway, because my UTV couldnt get through it.  I feel bad for the animals that cant get through it for overwinter browse.  One farm we know lost a cow Friday as it fell and broke stuff.  Hard on them too.  

Nothing can clear this mess, I gave up a long time ago.  Just throwing a combination of salt, sand and ash from my wood stove to get enough traction to get in and out.  
 

For sure this has been really hard on the animals.  I’m not seeing nearly as many or seeing tracks like I usually do, think it’s just impossible for them to move around.  Fingers crossed for a thaw.  

[ChescoWx]

Below are the top 25 January Snowstorms across the philly burbs of Chester County since 1893 - of note 5 of the top 25 have occurred since the year 2000.

[Blizzard of 93]

4 hours ago, pasnownut said:

if ens guidance has a clue we have a window of opp coming, but not sure how long it holds. Twds the end, Pac looks better but with NAO headed pos, not sure how deep cold will be.    AO highly questionable, but verbatim would be slightly neg.  to my eyes, MJO low amp is muted signal, so I guess it really is up in the air, but lets focus on next week and see how this cookie crumbles.  Not great...not horrible.

 

 

 

 

As you mentioned, ensemble guidance again today showed a workable pattern for week 2 that should offer chances for Winter storms.

Good agreement on the ensembles as well.

[Blizzard of 93]

0z GFS for the 15th has a low approaching from the south that rides up & off of the coast. It was closer to something more this run, but most of us at this point would take it as depicted this run.

[Blizzard of 93]

0z GFS has another potential juicy looking system approaching this run on day 16.

 

•  

[mahantango#1]

[sauss06]

If i was a betting man, i'd put my money on Friday 1/30-2/1 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 27.  There is no greater joy in life than waking up to Blizz having posted GFS 240+ hour snow threats. Always brings a smile to my face haha. 

[pawatch]

32 degrees this morning. Big question? Is there going to be sun showing at all today?

Doesn’t appear so….

[pasnownut]

50 minutes ago, pawatch said:

32 degrees this morning. Big question? Is there going to be sun showing at all today?

Doesn’t appear so….

Negative ghost rider.  Specially up in your neck of the woods.  i'd think SE of the mtns might get a few peeks, but w/ that SLP traversing to your north, I'd think you are socked in.  

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said:

his split flow is evident aoa 1/17 and beyond.  Just like the wierd cold pattern we've been in, its about timing of two streams/vorts.  At least the SS will be open for some business and cold will be a bit more stable and close by when needed.  

[pasnownut]

fwiw, looks like an extra day of thaw is being added on the backend of this weeks Jan thaw.  Fropa now sunday.   

[Itstrainingtime]

2 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

There is no greater joy in life than waking up to Blizz having posted GFS 240+ hour snow threats

Huh. If I quoted you to my wife, I'd likely have no joy left in my life...

[ChescoWx]

Today we should be seeing the temperature warming to near normal for early January with highs in the low 40's. We could see some light rain later this evening and into tomorrow morning. We then start a stretch tomorrow with above normal temperatures for the next 4 days through Saturday before we chill back down to normal temperatures to close out the weekend and will stay seasonably chilly all of next week.

[pasnownut]

Really like the ridging in AK that is showing up on ENS guidance.  Gives NS a chance to lock in and not be as transient as we've seen when big storms come up and cut.  Hoping pattern gets storms back to coming at/under us, and not cutting so far west.  Looks like that starts to happne abt a week from today.  IF this look holds, I'd think trackers will start to show up again.  till then...we thaw.