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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs


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41 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said:

Radar is pretty pathetic…good no one needs ice during the holidays and all the traveling! 

said this late last night and early today looks like local forecasts had a better handle on the radar then nws 

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18 minutes ago, canderson said:

What you are pointing out, like serval had told you all week, will mean significant ice accretion. 

lol I guess you didnt see what ive said radar is very dry and temps are all rdy higher then forecasted. 29 was the high last night for today now its been revised up to 33. all rdy 31.7

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9 minutes ago, Ruin said:

lol I guess you didnt see what ive said radar is very dry and temps are all rdy higher then forecasted. 29 was the high last night for today now its been revised up to 33. all rdy 31.7

Once rain hits temp drops.  It’s 30 now as rain starts. (Sleet / zr). It’ll continue to drop. 

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lol I guess you didnt see what ive said radar is very dry and temps are all rdy higher then forecasted. 29 was the high last night for today now its been revised up to 33. all rdy 31.7
What are you talking about? The forecast has been steady as a rock temperature wise for days. It's 29Screenshot_20251226_141802_Wunderground.jpg

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Here in Carlisle, at 2:30pm, there continues to be a mix of very light freezing rain mixed with sleet.  Every time the intensity picks up the precip quickly becomes mostly sleet.  Temp currently is down to 28.4 degrees with a rising dew point now up to 22.  Several hours ago the dew point was 15, so wet-bulbing definitely exerting its influence.  The total liquid equivalent is estimated to be around 0.03" with a hint of glaze progressively appearing.  Definitely anxious to see if the HRRR's predictions come true.

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20 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

What are you talking about? The forecast has been steady as a rock temperature wise for days. It's 29Screenshot_20251226_141802_Wunderground.jpg

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My digital temp from outside now reads 31.4 so just cause the forecast says 28 29 etc doesn't mean it's right 

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Here in Carlisle, at 2:30pm, there continues to be a mix of very light freezing rain mixed with sleet.  Every time the intensity picks up the precip quickly becomes mostly sleet.  Temp currently is down to 28.4 degrees with a rising dew point now up to 22.  Several hours ago the dew point was 15, so wet-bulbing definitely exerting its influence.  The total liquid equivalent is estimated to be around 0.03" with a hint of glaze progressively appearing.  Definitely anxious to see if the HRRR's predictions come true.
You just gave the perfect description of what I was saying regarding dryer being more ice and heavier being more sleet.

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6 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

You just gave the perfect description of what I was saying regarding dryer being more ice and heavier being more sleet.

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
 

The dying storm is gonna be our issue. 
 

Delivery update: on the way next (15 mins) and the driver said they’re cancelling all after mine 

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HRRR seems to suggest the period of steadiest/heaviest precip in the Sus Valley occurs from approx 7-10pm, with it being more scattered and in brief waves before then.

We can debate QPF and it probably ending up a bit less than it otherwise looked like a couple days ago. But to the point others are making in here, it really doesn’t take much in a freezing rain/sleet scenario to make roads icy. This isn’t a setup where the cold eventually gets routed during the storm in eastern PA, as surface/low level CAD is anchored in place and the air mass supplying it is quite cold. Ice accrual happens more readily at 29-30ºF than it would nearer to freezing.. and that should be where most folks are later on during that few hour period where the HRRR is suggesting best precip. 

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