Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[pawatch]

8 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

0z GFS shows heavy sleet for most of us on Friday.

Warning level snow for northeast PA this run.

Boy that’s a sharp cut off. Interested to see how this one plays out. 
Stiil chucking the temperature swing in the beginning.

[pawatch]

11 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

I think I have the flu. Whatever just hit me in the last hour has me laying in my bathroom floor, with pillows, blankets, far too sick to move.

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Get better soon!

35 degrees this morning. Not really windy out this morning.

[Jns2183]

Boy that’s a sharp cut off. Interested to see how this one plays out. 
Stiil chucking the temperature swing in the beginning.

That's 2-3" of white goodness with the density of cement! Think of awesome the trees will be Saturday morning

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[Jns2183]

Thank goodness that wind is not hitting until Monday.

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[canderson]

But it’s windy today. Winds to 37 mph. 
 

Efit nm into the mid 40s this is awesome yay wind you rock 

[Jns2183]

But it’s windy today. Winds to 37 mph. 

I finally saw that kmdt hit 68mph with wind this past weekend. That has to be a top 5 guest ever recorded there. Any idea on top 5 list? I guess that also explains how my Adirondack chair was completely flipped on its head.

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[Blizzard of 93]

CTP’s thoughts on Friday.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The weather looks largely benign for the rest of Christmas Day
with cloudy skies, WNW breeze and max temps +5-10F above the
historical average. High pressure ridge drifts over CPA Thursday
night bringing some clearing and colder min temps in the 15-25F
range. The sfc ridge and cold air wedge channels down the east
side of the Appalachians by Friday morning - setting the stage
for a classic CAD "overrunning" post-Christmas wintry mix event.

Strong warm air advection, isentropic lift, and healthy mid-to-
upper level ascent (ahead of sfc low tracking from IA/IL border
eastward to western PA btwn 12-24Z Friday) will send anomalous
moisture plume into a cold and dry boundary layer (sub-freezing
wet bulb temperatures at the surface). This will allow for an
icy mix of sleet/freezing rain over the southwest 1/3 of the
CWA. The best ice signal >0.25" is over the Laurel Highlands.
Farther to the northeast where cold layer is gradually deeper,
snow/sleet/zr transition is forecast. A deep cold layer below
the elevated warm nose could favor the majority of precip
falling as sleet over the interior central ridge and valley
region where WPC WWD shows a broad area of 0.50"+ of sleet
accumulation. Precip should stay snow the longest over the
northeast periphery of the CWA with perhaps up to 4-6" in the
eastern portions of Tioga/Sullivan/Columbia/Schuylkill Cos.

There remains ongoing fluctuations in the forecast track which
could result in additional changes to which areas see the most
snow and ice. That being said, we have high confidence in an
impactful post-Christmas winter wx event. We issued a winter
storm watch for the entire CWA with an emphasis on hazardous
travel impacts

[Blizzard of 93]

CTP recorded .3” of snow yesterday bringing the seasonal total to date to 5.0” ,which is 1.0 above normal season to date.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 33 and .3” of snow off of .11” qpf. All I’m asking for Christmas is an inch or two of white followed by a sleet bomb. What a glorious mess that would be. 

[Jns2183]

Low of 33 and .3” of snow off of .11” qpf. All I’m asking for Christmas is an inch or two of white followed by a sleet bomb. What a glorious mess that would be. 

Sleet bombs bring back some pretty core childhood memories around this area. It's a mid 90's throwback kinda December!

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[mahantango#1]

2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Sleet bombs bring back some pretty core childhood memories around this area. It's a mid 90's throwback kinda December!

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I remember the sleet bomb in the early 80s The forecast was sleet changing to rain. But the sleet never changed to rain. The sleet accumulated 6". That was something to shovel.

[pasnownut]

5 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

That's 2-3" of white goodness with the density of cement! Think of awesome the trees will be Saturday morning

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thats my hopes as well and if tomorrow night cools enough, we could get our wish.  NWS currently has me down to 22, but if clouds come in soon enough, they could cap how cold we get.  Thinkin we'll be ok, and happy to see one sneak up on us.  I was surely a skeptic.  

[AccuChris]

12z 12km NAM has no snow for many but a pure sleet-fest. Impressive with temps in the mid-20s



.

[Itstrainingtime]

One interesting thing I noticed in my forecast from CTP - hardly any mention of sleet. It's snow, then snow/freezing rain, followed by freezing rain possibly mixed with snow and sleet at times.

[Blizzard of 93]

39 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 33 and .3” of snow off of .11” qpf. All I’m asking for Christmas is an inch or two of white followed by a sleet bomb. What a glorious mess that would be. 

Agreed, if we must have a slop fest, I don’t mind them as much when we actually get the 1 or two inches of snow before the mix to sleet/freezing rain. The  look of snow on the ground plus the building layer of ice makes the scenery much better. 
This storm looks to change over to mostly sleet in the LSV, so we can hopefully measure & pad stats too.

[mahantango#1]

1 minute ago, AccuChris said:

12z 12km NAM has no snow for many but a pure sleet-fest. Impressive with temps in the mid-20s



.

Any freezing rain?

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

One interesting thing I noticed in my forecast from CTP - hardly any mention of sleet. It's snow, then snow/freezing rain, followed by freezing rain possibly mixed with snow and sleet at times.

Lol, their word salad point & clicks are amusing.

[AccuChris]

Any freezing rain?

Only in western/southwestern parts of the state


.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

22 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

One interesting thing I noticed in my forecast from CTP - hardly any mention of sleet. It's snow, then snow/freezing rain, followed by freezing rain possibly mixed with snow and sleet at times.

I wouldn’t put much stock in it. Their algorithms get all wonky in situations like this. The wording will probably change ten times between now and Friday. All I know is this, give me .5-1” of qpf thrown into a freezing cold airmass and let the chips fall where they may. 

[paweather]

24 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol, their word salad point & clicks are amusing.

AGREE! 

[GrandmasterB]

I’ve been tentative about getting invested in this Friday thing. I don’t remember seeing a set-up quite like this one.
Pros IMO, temps don’t appear to be an issue. I’m an ice guy (prefer snow of course) but it beats rain or mostly cloudy. So whatever falls will be frozen. Tracking something is great. 
Cons. Sharp cutoff of precip just across the MD line. Being in the south of this forum, I’ve been burned by the north trend once already this year. Some small trends northeast in modeling over the last 24 hours with probably more to come. Might get the rug pull.

In any event, I’m hoping we all get the goods! (outside of Voyager I guess). Thanks everyone for contributing to this forum. Part of the fun for me is hitting refresh here so please keep it up!

[paweather]

New York City special 3-5” 

[Jns2183]

I maybe the minority here but a 2"-3" sleet bomb is going to be a lot memorable than 4" of snow

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[AccuChris]

12z RGEM follows the NAM showing the snow staying to the northeast part of the state but mostly a sleet storm for central PA




.

[Jns2183]

Temperature is going to be in upper 20's. Let the pieces fall where they may.

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[canderson]

Sleet > zr all day, any day, so if we can't get snow I'm all-in on Team Sleet. 

[Blizzard of 93]

For those of us team heavy sleet, the 12z GFS delivers around 2 inches of sleet in the LSV on Friday with minimal freezing rain this run.

[Blizzard of 93]

12z GFS is bringing .50 to .75 of precip into the cold dome. Hopefully heavy rates at the start can put down a little snow before the warming aloft kicks in, but it that amount of sleet would be impressive.

[ChescoWx]

Merry Christmas to all of you!

Dry and breezy with near normal temperatures today a slight chance of a shower or snow flurry tomorrow morning and then a significant winter event for the entire area by later Friday. This will not be a significant snow event but will be impactful with mixed precipitation that falls occurring with temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 20's. I suspect the predominant precipitation type will be sleet with increasing chances of freezing rain further south and more snow especially as we go north and east toward Trenton and NYC. Rain returns on Sunday night and we turn sharply colder again on Monday.

[Jns2183]

12z GFS is bringing .50 to .75 of precip into the cold dome. Hopefully heavy rates at the start can put down a little snow before the warming aloft kicks in, but it that amount of sleet would be impressive.

This is all so beautiful

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