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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

MAG5035
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MAG5035
MAG5035

We have a couple potential events this week. A potent shortwave traversing the Great Lakes Wednesday and another potential wave(s) over the weekend. The low on Wednesday passes north of PA, which will

ChescoWx
ChescoWx

Another 1.0" has fallen here in East Nantmeal since 6am total snow 8.5"  Still some light snow temp down to 26.9

canderson
canderson

This gorgeous shot was posted in the HBGere with.Cameras group tonight.  https://www.facebook.com/share/p/14Pmn8ttuD2/?  

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mahantango#1

mahantango#1

Posted
Posted

Hazardous Weather Outlook 

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
313 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033-034-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-058-230815-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill-
313 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Light snow is expected before turning to a mix of precipitation later
tonight. A thin coating of ice is possible on top of a light
accumulation of snow.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A coating of snow and sleet may topped by a thin coating of ice
before temperatures warm up on Tuesday.
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mahantango#1

mahantango#1

Posted
Posted
PA Weather Plus, LLC
** LATE - WEEK POTENTIAL WINTER STORM **
Before I post today's blog post with the winter system expected tonight - Tuesday morning, I want to bring attention to the end of the week storm system, as there hasn't been a lot of talk about it. What originally looked to be a warm and dry Christmas and post-Christmas period, we are now watching the risk for a potentially more significant winter/ice storm to impact Pennsylvania. Right now, the coldest air is favored to be across central and eastern Pennsylvania, favoring either significant icing or snowfall. The CMC scenario currently remains the tamest, but still brings icing to northeastern Pennsylvania. I will continue to watch trends and bring you the latest updates throughout the week -stay tuned!
May be a graphic of map and text that says 'PA WEATHER PLUS EARLY LOOK AT MODEL GUIDANCE COVERING COVERINGPENNSYLVANIASWEATHER PE NNSYLVANIA'S FRIDAY, DECEMBER FRIDAY,DECEMBER26 26th DMC DMC*SNOW 恭 SNOW Commercial Snow CommercialSnow.Management Management GFS ្នញ ECMWF ကိးတေတ်သေုးိုင် HEAWSNOW ICE STORM RAIN CMC RAIN RAIN RAIN HEAWSNOW HEAVYSNOW ICE STORM ICE STORM RAIN MIDDLE SOLUTION SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS SOUTHERN SOLUTION SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS SOUTHERN SOLUTION MODERATE IMPACTS'
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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:
PA Weather Plus, LLC
** LATE - WEEK POTENTIAL WINTER STORM **
Before I post today's blog post with the winter system expected tonight - Tuesday morning, I want to bring attention to the end of the week storm system, as there hasn't been a lot of talk about it. What originally looked to be a warm and dry Christmas and post-Christmas period, we are now watching the risk for a potentially more significant winter/ice storm to impact Pennsylvania. Right now, the coldest air is favored to be across central and eastern Pennsylvania, favoring either significant icing or snowfall. The CMC scenario currently remains the tamest, but still brings icing to northeastern Pennsylvania. I will continue to watch trends and bring you the latest updates throughout the week -stay tuned!
May be a graphic of map and text that says 'PA WEATHER PLUS EARLY LOOK AT MODEL GUIDANCE COVERING COVERINGPENNSYLVANIASWEATHER PE NNSYLVANIA'S FRIDAY, DECEMBER FRIDAY,DECEMBER26 26th DMC DMC*SNOW 恭 SNOW Commercial Snow CommercialSnow.Management Management GFS ្នញ ECMWF ကိးတေတ်သေုးိုင် HEAWSNOW ICE STORM RAIN CMC RAIN RAIN RAIN HEAWSNOW HEAVYSNOW ICE STORM ICE STORM RAIN MIDDLE SOLUTION SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS SOUTHERN SOLUTION SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS SOUTHERN SOLUTION MODERATE IMPACTS'

If the trends from 0z & 6z on the Euro & GFS continue today, the forecasts for Friday will be changing rapidly.
The 6z GFS has a snowstorm for southern PA & the 6z Euro shows an ice storm chance. The High is in a great spot, so let’s see how the trends go today.

IMG_1196.png

IMG_1202.png

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

If the trends from 0z & 6z on the Euro & GFS continue today, the forecasts for Friday will be changing rapidly.
The 6z GFS has a snowstorm for southern PA & the 6z Euro shows an ice storm chance. The High is in a great spot, so let’s see how the trends go today.

 

 

Not sure Im buyin what they are sellin, as this is a really wonky evolution, but as we are on the eastern side of the pig ridge in the central US, NAO is headed negative, and as i suggested last week, then models might be correcting once they latch on.  Could be what we are seein here as the cold press starts to work its magic. 

I'll be casually looking as its a crazy busy time, but I hope we can pull somethin off, and keep the big warmup out west....out west.  The zonalish look i suggested last week seems to be showing up as we turn the calendar.  How long it lasts....we'll find out in a couple weeks.

 

 

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted

Below normal temperatures look to continue through at least Christmas with some models now hinting at significantly colder weather than currently forecast for Friday. We do have a chance of some light snow, sleet and freezing rain arriving tomorrow morning. While amounts will be light the timing near rush hour could be a potential problem. We should dry out by tomorrow afternoon. Christmas Eve Day looks sunny. Plenty of uncertainty regarding both temperatures and precipitation by Christmas Day and Boxing Day.

image.png.b11c1066fd5368bc9cf4e98552f1f71a.pngimage.thumb.png.23e03f4c99574bfe9f2ae7b414ea1949.png

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WX-PA

WX-PA

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

If the trends from 0z & 6z on the Euro & GFS continue today, the forecasts for Friday will be changing rapidly.
The 6z GFS has a snowstorm for southern PA & the 6z Euro shows an ice storm chance. The High is in a great spot, so let’s see how the trends go today.

IMG_1196.png

IMG_1202.png

NWS  has 58 for Central PA Friday lol..I mean are they awake?

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WX-PA

WX-PA

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

You should know by now IF that scenario changes they will be the last one to the table. Key word IF.

GFS and Euro have temps in the upper 20's on Friday..that's a 30 degree difference

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 18 here.  So, what's the skinny for tonight?  Any chance the kids will have a delay tomorrow or are the amounts too meager and the temps too marginal? 

I'd like to know as well. I'll admit I've paid zero attention to tonight...just so busy right now getting ready for Santa. What I have heard is it's going to be the essence of a nuisance...anything that we do get will be gone in literally a couple of hours. Of course, it takes just a small amount of wintry precip at the wrong time...

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TimB

TimB

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Below normal temperatures look to continue through at least Christmas with some models now hinting at significantly colder weather than currently forecast for Friday. We do have a chance of some light snow, sleet and freezing rain arriving tomorrow morning. While amounts will be light the timing near rush hour could be a potential problem. We should dry out by tomorrow afternoon. Christmas Eve Day looks sunny. Plenty of uncertainty regarding both temperatures and precipitation by Christmas Day and Boxing Day.

image.png.b11c1066fd5368bc9cf4e98552f1f71a.pngimage.thumb.png.23e03f4c99574bfe9f2ae7b414ea1949.png

No model is showing below normal temperatures on Christmas in your backyard. GFS is coldest, with upper 30s to near 40, which is normal. Euro is showing closer to a +10 departure.

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted

@Mount Joy Snowman fun fact: as of this morning, here are two seasonal snowfall totals that I find interesting:

  • Itstrainingtime's house: 5.5"
  • Mammoth Lakes, CA: 4"

It has been an historically awful start to the ski/winter season in CA. There are bare spots on Mammoth right now...that's just ludicrous in late December. Good news for them, things are changing in a big way this week. Snow arrives in town tomorrow and by the weekend there should be at least 3-4' in town with at least double that on the mountain. 

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Mount Joy Snowman

Mount Joy Snowman

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@Mount Joy Snowman fun fact: as of this morning, here are two seasonal snowfall totals that I find interesting:

  • Itstrainingtime's house: 5.5"
  • Mammoth Lakes, CA: 4"

It has been an historically awful start to the ski/winter season in CA. There are bare spots on Mammoth right now...that's just ludicrous in late December. Good news for them, things are changing in a big way this week. Snow arrives in town tomorrow and by the weekend there should be at least 3-4' in town with at least double that on the mountain. 

Oh wow, I wasn't aware of that.  I usually try and check in on the western resorts a couple times during the winter season but haven't yet done so.  Thanks for the update.  Good stuff.

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, WX-PA said:

NWS  has 58 for Central PA Friday lol..I mean are they awake?

if one looks at snapshot of 12z gfs, you'll see upper 50's and 60 touching SW corner of state, while NE is knee deep in cold.  Furthermore, if you look at the last 4 runs, you'll notice the colder looks backin in from the NE.  Is that right, not sure, but i can see how this makes some sense.  

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