Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[AccuChris]

12z model cycle was not very winter-friendly. The good news is run-to-run consistency is basically non-existent beyond Day 5 it seems


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[anotherman]

Thought this was a curious post by MU. Is he implying that one day in the low 50s qualifies as a “torch period”? I know he loves his warm weather but it seemed weirdly defensive to me and wasn’t sure who he was addressing. 

Definitely annoying. Go forecast in Georgia or something….

[Itstrainingtime]

53 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Thought this was a curious post by MU. Is he implying that one day in the low 50s qualifies as a “torch period”? I know he loves his warm weather but it seemed weirdly defensive to me and wasn’t sure who he was addressing. 

I think (?) he's been getting a lot of negative comments to some of his posts recently. There's been a noticeable difference in his "tone" over the past couple of months. I've really pulled back on following and posting because of it. I'm pretty sure that this post is probably in response to people's comments. Regardless, I haven't been sharing as much from him lately for a variety of reasons. I'm not trying to poke the bear so to speak. 

[AccuChris]

I think (?) he's been getting a lot of negative comments to some of his posts recently. There's been a noticeable difference in his "tone" over the past couple of months. I've really pulled back on following and posting because of it. I'm pretty sure that this post is probably in response to people's comments. Regardless, I haven't been sharing as much from him lately for a variety of reasons. I'm not trying to poke the bear so to speak. 

I miss Eric Horst. He was a great mentor to me when I was a met student at Millersville over 20 years ago now. Never emotional, just was purely objective and called it like it was. No agenda, no personal feelings. The best way to get back at keyboard warriors is to simply make your forecast and let the verification do the talking


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[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Thought this was a curious post by MU. Is he implying that one day in the low 50s qualifies as a “torch period”? I know he loves his warm weather but it seemed weirdly defensive to me and wasn’t sure who he was addressing. 

Low 50s in northern Maine is record/near-record warmth this time of the year. How much hotter does it need to be to qualify for a torch? 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

18 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Low 50s in northern Maine is record/near-record warmth this time of the year. How much hotter does it need to be to qualify for a torch? 

I mean maaaaybe, perhaps, possibly, mayhaps......but not really.  For me personally, no I do not even remotely consider 1 or 2 days in the low 50s in mid-December to be a "torch period".  I would also point out that he forecasts for the LSV, not Maine haha, and I assume the people to whom he was responding were also inquiring about the local area, not Canada.  I digress.

[Itstrainingtime]

Pribula on the move again:

https://www.ydr.com/story/sports/college/penn-state/football/2025/12/18/former-penn-state-football-qb-beau-pribula-to-transfer-from-missouri/87819340007/

[Itstrainingtime]

22 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I mean maaaaybe, perhaps, possibly, mayhaps......but not really.  For me personally, no I do not even remotely consider 1 or 2 days in the low 50s in mid-December to be a "torch period".  I would also point out that he forecasts for the LSV, not Maine haha, and I assume the people to whom he was responding were also inquiring about the local area, not Canada.  I digress.

You handled that a whole lot better than I would have.   

First, a "period" of hot/cold/warm weather is not a day. That's just silly. Second, it's kind of a weak-sauce torch to begin with. Temps much of the afternoon tomorrow are going to be very close to normal, falling below normal by sunset. 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

53 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

I miss Eric Horst. He was a great mentor to me when I was a met student at Millersville over 20 years ago now. Never emotional, just was purely objective and called it like it was. No agenda, no personal feelings. The best way to get back at keyboard warriors is to simply make your forecast and let the verification do the talking


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I got to meet him as a senior at Penn Manor while studying met in high school. It was a brief exchange but one that left a lasting impression on me. 

I consider Horst and Paul Knight (Weather World lore) to be the 2 greatest mets I've watched/listened to in my lifetime. Both were 100% objective and deadly accurate. The Blizzard of 1996 - as I recall, almost every model showed that storm missing us to the south pretty much the entire week leading up to the storm. It was only in the final 48 hours or so that they all suddenly adjusted north. Days before that on Weather World, Paul said in that night's extended forecast that the southern half of PA was going to get obliterated. He was the first to call it...and history shows he was spot on. That wasn't the only time he went against everyone/everything else and was right. 

Horst was uncanny at predicting events that featured snow mixing or changing over to ice and rain - he would harp on that for days leading up to the event when no other model or met would see it. Like Knight, he was right just about every. single. time. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

You handled that a whole lot better than I would have.   

First, a "period" of hot/cold/warm weather is not a day. That's just silly. Second, it's kind of a weak-sauce torch to begin with. Temps much of the afternoon tomorrow are going to be very close to normal, falling below normal by sunset. 

 

Haha believe me, I strongly considered not engaging at all.  The points you make are exactly correct, and why I made my post.  His entire post just felt strange to me.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

29 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Pribula on the move again:

https://www.ydr.com/story/sports/college/penn-state/football/2025/12/18/former-penn-state-football-qb-beau-pribula-to-transfer-from-missouri/87819340007/

Virginia Tech?

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Virginia Tech?

Have to figure that JF was/is going in hard after him...

[MAG5035]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

You handled that a whole lot better than I would have.   

First, a "period" of hot/cold/warm weather is not a day. That's just silly. Second, it's kind of a weak-sauce torch to begin with. Temps much of the afternoon tomorrow are going to be very close to normal, falling below normal by sunset. 

 

Agreed, I know I’m not going to nitpick what constitutes a “torch period” regarding the weather from about yesterday thru the first half of tomorrow or so. Given how potent of a southerly flow this system has that is going to tracking well north of PA, it could definitely be warmer out ahead of it here. LSV might briefly climb into the high 50s prior to FROPA tomorrow morning before a brief but potent return to some below average temps later tomorrow.

With that said, we do have an actual torch period setting up through at least the Christmas to New Year’s period… centered on the central US. Really about the only teleconnection we have going for us in this timeframe is a developing negative NAO.. which acts to keep significant warm anomalies at bay in the northeastern US. The degree of which is what modelling is back and forth about. I think in play here in Central PA are a couple of waves that may have enough cold in place to produce some kind of a wintry mix type scenario. But overall looking like more of a transient/brief cold enforcement vs the kind of persistent cold temps we had the first half of the month. I’m overall kind of pessimistic about this period, as I feel the mostly +EPO and now significantly -PNA are going to be a stronger teleconnection influence vs the -NAO/neutral AO. Keeps very cold anomalies bottled up in western Canada and storm track continues to be northern branch dominated with little southern stream action as evidenced here by a very dry southeastern US.

GEFS v Euro EPS temp anomalies (10 day avg centered beginning of Christmas week to New Year’s Day) 

[Jns2183]

Low 50s in northern Maine is record/near-record warmth this time of the year. How much hotter does it need to be to qualify for a torch? 

It's been 60-70 around Xmas here a few times. That a torch

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[canderson]

My guess for peak gust at MDT tomorrow late afternoon: 57 mph 

[Itstrainingtime]

2 hours ago, canderson said:

My guess for peak gust at MDT tomorrow late afternoon: 57 mph 

Okay - let's have some fun.

I'll go 48 at THV, 51 at MDT and 55 at LNS.

[canderson]

18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Okay - let's have some fun.

I'll go 48 at THV, 51 at MDT and 55 at LNS.

THV 46, LNS 52

Somerset with the highest - 63

CTP 59

[Yardstickgozinya]

   SPC AC 190529

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1129 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE MID ATLANTIC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated damaging winds may accompany convection over the Mid
   Atlantic today.

   ...Mid Atlantic...

   Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a notable midlevel trough
   over the MS Valley, shifting east in line with latest model
   guidance. This feature is forecast to take a more negative-tilt
   orientation by late morning as 100+kt 500mb speed max
   develops/translates across the Mid Atlantic by 18z. Impressive 12hr
   height falls at 500mb will overspread the OH Valley into New England
   where values will range from 240-300m in response to this strong
   feature. Needless to say, very strong wind fields will provide
   background support for organized frontal convection. HREF guidance
   is in general agreement that a narrow strongly forced line of
   convection will develop along the surging cold front early in the
   period. Forecast soundings do not exhibit more than weak SBCAPE with
   this frontal convection, but some mixing is expected given that
   0-3km lapse rates should be on the order of 7 C/km. 40kt mean wind
   within this layer is expected to contribute to gusty winds with this
   activity. Have introduced MRGL Risk of damaging winds to account for
   strong gusts with a narrow line of convection that will surge east
   along the front.

   Given the limited buoyancy across southern New England will not
   introduce wind probabilities at this time.

   ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/19/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 0944Z (4:44AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
        

[Voyager]

8 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Okay - let's have some fun.

I'll go 48 at THV, 51 at MDT and 55 at LNS.

Don't forget 15 in Tamaqua...lol

Not complaining, but my backyard is so sheltered by the neighborhood houses and the nearby mountains that I rarely get over 20 mph here 

[Yardstickgozinya]

Trainingtimes Hrrr graphic has been fairly accurate in its depiction of a extremely narrow line of thunderstorms moving through Western Pennsylvania and the Ohio valley overnight. However, it has produced at no detectable lightning throughout the last several hours of its life cycle tonight. Furthermore the band has weakened as advertised. It'll be interesting to see if the Hrrr can continue it's accurate depiction of reinitiation of a narrow band as it moves through cpa. If it can get going again, it definitely looked like that kind of sharp narrow band that could have some gnarly winds this time of year. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

 

Very little lightning downstream over the last twenty four hours. However, just because lightning is not detected does not mean it's not occurring. Parts of pennsylvania and the ohio valley do not have the best lightning detection systems. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

That said the lightning detection systems are plenty adequate enough to know that there's very little if any lightning occurring.

[Yardstickgozinya]

[mahantango#1]

Patiently waiting to see if this squall line will make it through my area. Was looking forward to a thunderstorm.

[mahantango#1]

 

[Yardstickgozinya]

0.5 scan out of pittsburgh was definitely showing some bite at the ground from that band. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

48 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Trainingtimes Hrrr graphic has been fairly accurate in its depiction of a extremely narrow line of thunderstorms moving through Western Pennsylvania and the Ohio valley overnight. However, it has produced at no detectable lightning throughout the last several hours of its life cycle tonight. Furthermore the band has weakened as advertised. It'll be interesting to see if the Hrrr can continue it's accurate depiction of reinitiation of a narrow band as it moves through cpa. If it can get going again, it definitely looked like that kind of sharp narrow band that could have some gnarly winds this time of year. 

I definitely worded the beginning of my post incorrectly. The point that I was trying to make, is it'll be interesting to see if trainingtimes hrrr verifies, based on what's happened in western pennsylvania and the ohio valley. 

[mahantango#1]

The snow on the ground is gone except for the piles that I created.

[Yardstickgozinya]

Ohh, snap, that's looking pretty gnarly again

[mitchnick]

Line came through here with some wind and heavy rain. Not bad. Probably because it came through so fast.