Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Eskimo Joe]

12z NAM/HRRR would imply a solid 4" - 6" for York, Lancaster, and Lebanon counties. Might be a last minute victory here folks.

[AccuChris]

12z 3km NAM kuchera snow


.

[canderson]

Gonna be leaving Philly around 8 pm. We'lll se how that goes.  

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Nothing better than an event that starts with low expectations and then ramps up towards game time. Might have to up my O/U to 3”. 

[GrandmasterB]

31 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Nothing better than an event that starts with low expectations and then ramps up towards game time. Might have to up my O/U to 3”. 

Seems like it’s been a little while since we had an event trending better and better right up until go time. Ya love to see it! 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z NAM/HRRR would imply a solid 4" - 6" for York, Lancaster, and Lebanon counties. Might be a last minute victory here folks.

Youre smarter than us (well me anyways) so keep talkin, cause were listening.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Gonna be leaving Philly around 8 pm. We'lll se how that goes.  

get a room.

 

[pasnownut]

14 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Seems like it’s been a little while since we had an event trending better and better right up until go time. Ya love to see it! 

as been of concern for the last few days, the coastal interaction is easters key to the snow globe toy chest.  Prorgressive pattern keeps this thing moving, and still worries me that any delay, will quickly rob wester LSV folks, and even me as.  Somethin to keep an eye on.  While not a Miller B, similar attributes/characteristics in play IMO

[Jns2183]

was just going to post as well.  Thats the model to hug right now.  

The cut of gradiant for this one is going to be brutal

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[pasnownut]

7 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

The cut of gradiant for this one is going to be brutal

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Lookin at nooner hi res suite, give a little hope to the continued western increase in qpf, bringing much of the LSV hope for some white gold.  Feeling a bit better, and hoping its seeing better response to coastal interaction in western qpf distribution for LSV. 

[Itstrainingtime]

8 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

The cut of gradiant for this one is going to be brutal

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Elliott agrees - as little as a coating to 1" across Franklin and Perry counties up to 5" in eastern parts of Lancaster.

[Itstrainingtime]

I honestly do not remember the last time Lanco jacked. It's been at least several years.

[ChescoWx]

Snow arrives this evening after 7pm with maybe some rain at the onset across far southern and eastern areas of Chester into Delaware Counties. The snow should be ending by daybreak tomorrow morning. It will be windy and cold tomorrow with blowing and drifting snow and temperatures falling into the teens by afternoon. Of note we only need about 3 inches of snow to go to above normal snowfall for the season to date which is 4.4" after tomorrow. Our unseasonably cold weather looks like it will continue through mid-week. We finally see some warming on Thursday before we turn closer to normal temperatures to close out the week.

[pasnownut]

Fwiw, nooner GFS continues the westward tick in qpf for LSV.  Not much more room for further adjustments, but I81 and points SE should have plows down (cause ya know they plow 1/4" or greater).  

Hoping for another HH tick west to bring Carlisle and Blizz into the good stuff as well.  

[canderson]

CTP has snow starting around 11 pm for HBG

[Itstrainingtime]

33 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Lookin at nooner hi res suite, give a little hope to the continued western increase in qpf, bringing much of the LSV hope for some white gold.  Feeling a bit better, and hoping its seeing better response to coastal interaction in western qpf distribution for LSV. 

Any concerns about us losing a couple of hours to rain or mix? With precip moving in during the early evening hours, you and me are likely going to be at least several degrees above freezing.

[Voyager]

7 minutes ago, canderson said:

CTP has snow starting around 11 pm for HBG

That's good. Tonight is our company Christmas party and any snow before 10 or 11 here will not be good for my wife and her deteriorating mobility issues.

[canderson]

34 minutes ago, Voyager said:

That's good. Tonight is our company Christmas party and any snow before 10 or 11 here will not be good for my wife and her deteriorating mobility issues.

Sorry to hear about her losing her ability to be mobile. Tough stuff. 

[Voyager]

3 minutes ago, canderson said:

Sorry to hear about her losing her ability to be mobile. Tough stuff. 

Thanks. She still gets around, but has regressed from having to use a cane to using a walker.

[MAG5035]

42 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Any concerns about us losing a couple of hours to rain or mix? With precip moving in during the early evening hours, you and me are likely going to be at least several degrees above freezing.

The HRRR is suggesting that right at the very beginning when it precip arrives into the LSV. I would think it would be brief if it happens. Surface starts above freezing but 850mb and 925mb level are plenty cold to start the event and cool further as the event progresses. I think this event should get the rest of the LSV solidly on the board in terms of first synoptic snowfall. 

[AccuChris]

12z GFS says “heck of a way to run a warm up!”


.

[GrandmasterB]

Euro Kuchie stolen from the MA. Another small bump up in totals. what’s warning criteria down here in York and Lanco? 4-6?

 

[MAG5035]

Might as well throw some accums out since this event is pretty close to starting in western PA. This is going to be a pretty big event in the western mountains. The western ridgelines of the Laurels may near double digits just from the event itself with the upslope flow and cold column (high ratios). Still going to be that corridor of reduced accums in the Ridge and Valley, although this has looked somewhat better as this has gotten into the realm of the near term guidance. I think most everyone will see at least an inch. That narrow corridor between the Allegheny front and I-99 may manage low end advisory amounts. 

Along with the somewhat better carry-over where the downsloping occurs, near term has also looked better in the Sus Valley for the precip shield reorganizing as the system gets to the coast and the column/surface cools further. Ratios won’t be as high as the Laurels, but it’ll still be pretty decent (perhaps as good as 14-15:1). The best precip coincides roughly with the -8ºC 850mb isotherm as it tracks across PA. It wouldn’t take much more QPF to make for a low end warning event in the Sus Valley. 

Western PA 

Pittsburgh metro and surrounding: 4-6”

Washington: 5-7”

Butler/Indiana: 3-5”

Seven Springs: 6-10” (+ additional with LES and upslope after)

Central PA

Johnstown/Somerset: 4-7” (+ additional with LES and upslope after)

Clearfield: 2-4”

Altoona: 2-3”

Bedford/State College: 1-2”

Huntingdon/Lewistown/Williamsport: An inch or so

Sus Valley

Selinsgrove: 1-2”

Gettysburg: 2-3”

Harrisburg area/Tamaqua: 2-4”

York/Lancaster: 2-4” (possibility of some 5”+ amounts) 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

33 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Euro Kuchie stolen from the MA. Another small bump up in totals. what’s warning criteria down here in York and Lanco? 4-6?

 

5" in 24 hours? I think?

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

Might as well throw some accums out since this event is pretty close to starting in western PA. This is going to be a pretty big event in the western mountains. The western ridgelines of the Laurels may near double digits just from the event itself with the upslope flow and cold column (high ratios). Still going to be that corridor of reduced accums in the Ridge and Valley, although this has looked somewhat better as this has gotten into the realm of the near term guidance. I think most everyone will see at least an inch. That narrow corridor between the Allegheny front and I-99 may manage low end advisory amounts. 

Along with the somewhat better carry-over where the downsloping occurs, near term has also looked better in the Sus Valley for the precip shield reorganizing as the system gets to the coast and the column/surface cools further. Ratios won’t be as high as the Laurels, but it’ll still be pretty decent (perhaps as good as 14-15:1). The best precip coincides roughly with the -8ºC 850mb isotherm as it tracks across PA. It wouldn’t take much more QPF to make for a low end warning event in the Sus Valley. 

Western PA 

Pittsburgh metro and surrounding: 4-6”

Washington: 5-7”

Butler/Indiana: 3-5”

Seven Springs: 6-10” (+ additional with LES and upslope after)

Central PA

Johnstown/Somerset: 4-7” (+ additional with LES and upslope after)

Clearfield: 2-4”

Altoona: 2-3”

Bedford/State College: 1-2”

Huntingdon/Lewistown/Williamsport: An inch or so

Sus Valley

Selinsgrove: 1-2”

Gettysburg: 2-3”

Harrisburg area/Tamaqua: 2-4”

York/Lancaster: 2-4” (possibility of some 5”+ amounts) 

 

Great write up!

But I must ask the ageless running joke on the weather boards… Lol…

”How much for Philly?!”

[Blizzard of 93]

It should just be a matter of time until CTP expands the Advisory At least into Dauphin, Lebanon & Skook.

[Blizzard of 93]

I think CTP & local news in the LSV need to update their forecasts based on short term modeling last night & today. I’m seeing a lot of “coating to an inch or two” forecasts.

Most model have a good chunk of the LSV in the 2 to 4 inch range.

This of course is a busy time of year with people out shopping & holiday parties, etc. 

The media & CTP need to put better messaging out today in my opinion which could help keep some people safe. 

[Festus]

1 hour ago, GrandmasterB said:

Euro Kuchie stolen from the MA. Another small bump up in totals. what’s warning criteria down here in York and Lanco? 4-6?

 

5"+ for Lanco.

Definitions, Thresholds, Criteria for Warnings, Watches and Advisories

 

[Blizzard of 93]

18z National Blend of Models.

[WmsptWx]

Hoo boy. Half an inch.