The Return of the 12/5 Snowstorm

[winter_warlock]

I would really hate to see this cold pattern pattern with mjo phase 7-8-1  without a nice snowstorm!! Seems like a waste  

[BristowWx]

8 minutes ago, bncho said:

0z HRRR will make friends with lots of us. 2-3x as much snow DC and points north than 18z. And I'm 99% sure this is the right run lol

Almost WSW criteria in S. central VA.  You are reeling this one in for us.  Hats off sir! 

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Let’s pull off a 1/30/10

And the two weeks that followed. 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Hrrr support from the Srefs

Just Keep a  creeping northp plzzz.!

[SnowenOutThere]

The one thing that annoys me about the HRRR is how the best forcing arrives with the precip (which makes sense I suppose). However, according to the soundings we have an entrenched layer of dry air (someone pointed this out earlier) which would sublimate before it could be saturated. HRRR shows this taking a couple hours which would be painful (though another actually smart met will need to chime in on how much that matters in relation to its molded snowfall output or if its factored into it). The good news to my eyes is once the column does saturate its game on with a saturated DGZ and good lift aligned with it! I know @psuhoffman mentioned that strong winds in the DGZ can break apart crystals but from my (admittedly chatgpt) understanding this soundings seems fine in that regard.

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Let’s pull off a 1/30/10

https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/model_l.html

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

And the two weeks that followed. 

 The two weeks that followed were the best 2 weeks I've ever had in any winter!!!

[WxUSAF]

Models fully account for precip evaporating or subliming during descent. 

[IronTy]

2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

He’s young.

 

I’ve recently retired HS math teacher and maybe it’s time to take some met classes. I’m impressed with how much@SnowenOutThere has learned in his short time studying meteorology. Frankly, it’s inspiring.

I sort of retired from my engineering job two years ago and decided to pick up weather in my free time last year.  I'm an EE major and applied mathematics minor so I can hang with with the math but I was disappointed looking through the Atmospheric mechanics text book I bought since it was mostly fluid dynamics calculus, which I guess makes sense since the atmosphere is a fluid, duh, but all those dels and curls bummed me out. I just wanted to skip forward to the part about how noreasters form.  

 

As luck would have it they dragged me back in and now I'm doing engineering consulting for all these data center powerplants getting built so I have no time for weather.  Maybe during my second attempt at retirement...  Rest assured, I'm doing my part to help bring your electric bills back down. 

[LP08]

NAM looks like a good step from 18z so far.

[bncho]

10 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Almost WSW criteria in S. central VA.  You are reeling this one in for us.  Hats off sir! 

You are thanking the wrong person. @SnowenOutThere has reeled this in for us. I'll be able to say it's "SnowenOutThere" two days from now.

[Solution Man]

Alright, good trends, Nam you’re next

[winter_warlock]

So far 00z nam looking more robust a bit to my untrained eye compared to 18z.

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

So far 00z nam looking more robust a bit to my untrained eye compared to 18z.

Gonna be better for all

[winter_warlock]

Nam thru hour 30. Compared to 18z

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Gonna be better for all

So far looks better. Baby steps!!

[winter_warlock]

8 minutes ago, LP08 said:

NAM looks like a good step from 18z so far.

Agreed!!

[Solution Man]

Significant improvements in precipitation field @33

[Solution Man]

Snow in DC and NOVA at 36 , 7amish fri

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Snow in DC and NOVA at 36 

Really.  Well I’ll be a monkey’s uncle 

[Solution Man]

Still snowing at 39 and into so. Md

[LP08]

Snow almost to the m/D line at 39.  Was south of EZF at 18z

[87storms]

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/model_l.html

That’s the one that keeps me interested lol

[susqushawn]

DC needs a good Namming

[Solution Man]

Moving out @ 42, somebody post a map please 

[MN Transplant]

Parent NAM looks good, but the 3km isn’t playing ball yet.

[bncho]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

Parent NAM looks good, but the 3km isn’t playing ball yet.

3km still more north though

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Moving out @ 42, somebody post a map please 

[winter_warlock]

Trend compared to 18z. Definitely a move north!!  Hope trend continues!!

[Imgoinhungry]

Nam and hrrr start time a lot earlier than other models? Thought this was going to be a Friday late afternoon deal.


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