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The Return of the 12/5 Snowstorm


SnowenOutThere
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8 minutes ago, bncho said:

0z HRRR will make friends with lots of us. 2-3x as much snow DC and points north than 18z. And I'm 99% sure this is the right run lol

Screenshot 2025-12-03 at 8.41.05 PM.png

Almost WSW criteria in S. central VA.  You are reeling this one in for us.  Hats off sir! 

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The one thing that annoys me about the HRRR is how the best forcing arrives with the precip (which makes sense I suppose). However, according to the soundings we have an entrenched layer of dry air (someone pointed this out earlier) which would sublimate before it could be saturated. HRRR shows this taking a couple hours which would be painful (though another actually smart met will need to chime in on how much that matters in relation to its molded snowfall output or if its factored into it). The good news to my eyes is once the column does saturate its game on with a saturated DGZ and good lift aligned with it! I know @psuhoffman mentioned that strong winds in the DGZ can break apart crystals but from my (admittedly chatgpt) understanding this soundings seems fine in that regard.

hrrr_2025120400_030_37.98--78.97.png

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2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

He’s young.

 

I’ve recently retired HS math teacher and maybe it’s time to take some met classes. I’m impressed with how much@SnowenOutThere has learned in his short time studying meteorology. Frankly, it’s inspiring.

I sort of retired from my engineering job two years ago and decided to pick up weather in my free time last year.  I'm an EE major and applied mathematics minor so I can hang with with the math but I was disappointed looking through the Atmospheric mechanics text book I bought since it was mostly fluid dynamics calculus, which I guess makes sense since the atmosphere is a fluid, duh, but all those dels and curls bummed me out. I just wanted to skip forward to the part about how noreasters form.  

 

As luck would have it they dragged me back in and now I'm doing engineering consulting for all these data center powerplants getting built so I have no time for weather.  Maybe during my second attempt at retirement...  Rest assured, I'm doing my part to help bring your electric bills back down. 

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