winter_warlock Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 I would really hate to see this cold pattern with an MJO phase 7-8-1 without a nice snowstorm!! Seems like a waste 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 8 minutes ago, bncho said: 0z HRRR will make friends with lots of us. 2-3x as much snow DC and points north than 18z. And I'm 99% sure this is the right run lol Almost WSW criteria in S. central VA. You are reeling this one in for us. Hats off sir! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Let’s pull off a 1/30/10 And the two weeks that followed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Hrrr support from the Srefs Just Keep a creeping northp plzzz.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 4, 2025 Author Share Posted December 4, 2025 The one thing that annoys me about the HRRR is how the best forcing arrives with the precip (which makes sense I suppose). However, according to the soundings we have an entrenched layer of dry air (someone pointed this out earlier) which would sublimate before it could be saturated. HRRR shows this taking a couple hours which would be painful (though another actually smart met will need to chime in on how much that matters in relation to its molded snowfall output or if its factored into it). The good news to my eyes is once the column does saturate its game on with a saturated DGZ and good lift aligned with it! I know @psuhoffman mentioned that strong winds in the DGZ can break apart crystals but from my (admittedly chatgpt) understanding this soundings seems fine in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Let’s pull off a 1/30/10 https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/model_l.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: And the two weeks that followed. The two weeks that followed were the best 2 weeks I've ever had in any winter!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Models fully account for precip evaporating or subliming during descent. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: He’s young. I’ve recently retired HS math teacher and maybe it’s time to take some met classes. I’m impressed with how much@SnowenOutThere has learned in his short time studying meteorology. Frankly, it’s inspiring. I sort of retired from my engineering job two years ago and decided to pick up weather in my free time last year. I'm an EE major and applied mathematics minor so I can hang with with the math but I was disappointed looking through the Atmospheric mechanics text book I bought since it was mostly fluid dynamics calculus, which I guess makes sense since the atmosphere is a fluid, duh, but all those dels and curls bummed me out. I just wanted to skip forward to the part about how noreasters form. As luck would have it they dragged me back in and now I'm doing engineering consulting for all these data center powerplants getting built so I have no time for weather. Maybe during my second attempt at retirement... Rest assured, I'm doing my part to help bring your electric bills back down. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 NAM looks like a good step from 18z so far. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 10 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Almost WSW criteria in S. central VA. You are reeling this one in for us. Hats off sir! You are thanking the wrong person. @SnowenOutThere has reeled this in for us. I'll be able to say it's "SnowenOutThere" two days from now. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Alright, good trends, Nam you’re next 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 So far 00z nam looking more robust a bit to my untrained eye compared to 18z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: So far 00z nam looking more robust a bit to my untrained eye compared to 18z. Gonna be better for all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Nam thru hour 30. Compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: Gonna be better for all So far looks better. Baby steps!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 8 minutes ago, LP08 said: NAM looks like a good step from 18z so far. Agreed!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Significant improvements in precipitation field @33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Snow in DC and NOVA at 36 , 7amish fri 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: Snow in DC and NOVA at 36 Really. Well I’ll be a monkey’s uncle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Still snowing at 39 and into so. Md Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Snow almost to the m/D line at 39. Was south of EZF at 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 21 minutes ago, mitchnick said: https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/model_l.html That’s the one that keeps me interested lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
susqushawn Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 DC needs a good Namming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Moving out @ 42, somebody post a map please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Parent NAM looks good, but the 3km isn’t playing ball yet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Just now, MN Transplant said: Parent NAM looks good, but the 3km isn’t playing ball yet. 3km still more north though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: Moving out @ 42, somebody post a map please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Trend compared to 18z. Definitely a move north!! Hope trend continues!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted December 4, 2025 Share Posted December 4, 2025 Nam and hrrr start time a lot earlier than other models? Thought this was going to be a Friday late afternoon deal. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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