Winter 2025-26 Short Range Discussion

[Radtechwxman]

3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Peoria looking like the better spot to be for the first wave.  Northern IL is trending towards a dog turd duster on the globals.  

Im sure it will find a way to shift north or south of me still. The dome is strong. Ha. I feel most optimistic about Thurs. Sat I feel might end up even more south unfortunately. 12z gfs has me on northern edge. We shall see. Definitely a notable south trend. 

[RCNYILWX]

It's basically the CAMs and RAP against the globals, with the GFS the farthest northeast of these. Wouldn't be surprised at a compromise in which the better f-gen banding and accum axis is indeed farther southwest, while farther north and east we get several hours of pixies accumulating to an inch or two.

Could certainly be wrong but my current lean is away from a complete whiff with the first system. Too soon to write off Saturday for adjustments back (a decent % of 06z EPS members still had solid snow up into parts of the metro).

[ILSNOW]

12z Euro

[KeenerWx]

12 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

12z Euro

No love in that heart.

[A-L-E-K]

done and dusted

[sbnwx85]

Congrats Decatur 

[Baum]

Ground zero.

[ChiTownSnow]

15 minutes ago, Baum said:

Ground zero.

I like the optimism.. need to will it to happen

[Baum]

31 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

I like the optimism.. need to will it to happen

I can’t be wrong.

[Radtechwxman]

If hrrr is right N IL scores again and I will be on southern edge. Cams definitely more north and globals more south. Crazy how much variability there still is the day before. 

[Chicago Storm]

If hrrr is right N IL scores again and I will be on southern edge. Cams definitely more north and globals more south. Crazy how much variability there still is the day before. 

we saw this exact scenario with the event last weekend.

[ILSNOW]

riding the HRRR and RAP

[A-L-E-K]

2 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

riding the HRRR and RAP

[Radtechwxman]

37 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

we saw this exact scenario with the event last weekend.

And cams ended up being right. 18z nam more south than hrrr but more north of globals. So might be a good compromise. Hrrr definitely the most north. But would be par for course to get missed north Thurs and missed south Sat. 

[A-L-E-K]

5 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

And cams ended up being right. 18z nam more south than hrrr but more north of globals. So might be a good compromise. Hrrr definitely the most north. But would be par for course to get missed north Thurs and missed south Sat. 

the pros at lot say toss that shit (the hrrr is the shit btw)

 

 

[Chicago Storm]

3 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

And cams ended up being right. 18z nam more south than hrrr but more north of globals. So might be a good compromise. Hrrr definitely the most north. But would be par for course to get missed north Thurs and missed south Sat. 

the cams ended up caving, as did the globals.

in the end a split scenario was what occurred. (not to say that will be the case this go-around, though)

[Radtechwxman]

9 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

the pros at lot say toss that shit (the hrrr is the shit btw)

 

 

Live and die by hrrr. Usually dont give it any credibility till day of event

8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

the cams ended up caving, as did the globals.

in the end a split scenario was what occurred. (not to say that will be the case this go-around, though)

Clippers are a nightmare to forecast. Seems like a lot of last second shifts with these. Also could be a relatively narrow corridor of frontogenic banding with areas outside getting more of a pixie dust snow. Definitely not spread the wealth. Sat has a little bit better coverage.