ChescoWx Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 10 hours ago, RedSky said: Unfortunately there are no official tallies for small towns like doylestown perkasie and quakertown Actually there is historical NWS Cooperative data for some of those spots I did a quick look with some select snow examples: Sellersville since 1948 (looks like snow since 1990's) - 24.4" of snow so far this season / 2013-14 - 58.3" season snow Doylestown 1899-2017 - 1977-78 - 56.4" of snow Quakertown 1884 - 1969 Palm 1941-1922 Check out https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/request/coop/fe.phtml?network=PACLIMATE if anyone else is interested in some local official NWS amounts etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Such a tight gradient on all the eps members etc because of how wound up the system is. I feel like we’d need a pretty large shift for this range to get the city in the goods, but I still think we can muster few inches if we get lucky 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 10 hours ago, The Iceman said: Hm I have no idea, my dad’s records only go back to 1977, he started keeping track as a science project in high school and just kept with it… not really a weather nerd like me but he loves snow lol. In our combined tally of snow totals, 95-1996 was our snowiest winter at 75.6”. Do you happen to know what the tally for 57-58 was? I put the link above there are some NWS spots around that area - I grew up in NE Philly so check out: Neshaminy Falls 1915-Present - 24.5" of snow so far this season George School 1906-1978 Southhampton 1979-2013 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Another side note, but crossing the Delaware into Trenton this morning I noticed it's almost completely frozen all the way across. I have to imagine by the end of this weekend it will be completely frozen. That doesn't happen often. Will have to watch for Ice jams by the falls whenever the thaw comes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Another side note, but crossing the Delaware into Trenton this morning I noticed it's almost completely frozen all the way across. I have to imagine by the end of this weekend it will be completely frozen. That doesn't happen often. Will have to watch for Ice jams by the falls whenever the thaw comes. The Skook out by me was ~50% frozen over yesterday when I drove down River Road north of Rt. 12. This is north of the Tulpehocken, which is fed from Blue Marsh, so I don't know if it's frozen downstream. Might have to go check it out later today. I also want to see if anybody's out at Ontelawnee ice fishing. That's something I've always wanted to do, and this weekend might be a good weekend for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chadzachadam Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 21 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said: The Skook out by me was ~50% frozen over yesterday when I drove down River Road north of Rt. 12. This is north of the Tulpehocken, which is fed from Blue Marsh, so I don't know if it's frozen downstream. Might have to go check it out later today. I also want to see if anybody's out at Ontelawnee ice fishing. That's something I've always wanted to do, and this weekend might be a good weekend for it. Can confirm the Skook is frozen in Philly and looks very cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Probably wrong but think this is the 2nd run in a row the GFS has a clipper trying to spring a miller B around 260hrs. Pretty boring until then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Would take a 1-3"/2-4" (refresher) deal for Sunday and be happy. Getting shutout would kinda irk me...means we wasted a full week of cold. 17F @ 12:10pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago I got some snow squalls last night. Did anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 43 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Would take a 1-3"/2-4" (refresher) deal for Sunday and be happy. Getting shutout would kinda irk me...means we wasted a full week of cold. 17F @ 12:10pm This is all covered in the weenie handbook chapter 12 historic cold periods are dry and dull with the proverbial lull, old timers will say "it's too cold to snow" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Its interesting that later frames of NAM bring the low substantially west compared to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago BTW OP runs from what I saw, not what we wanted to see at 12z. I'm going down with the ship though, WPC as well as the local NWS have harped on 72 hours out being the period where many of these storms drift NW. It's so friggin close. I don't know how anyone from 95 E, can throw in the towel, even if it's only a few inches. Also some winters it just wants to snow... I still think this comes back some.... at least I know if we were bullseyed right now it would 100% drift NW 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago I said I'd give it until 12z tomorrow, but obviously not seeing any encouraging trends today. Not ready to pull the plug, but I am looking around the room for the outlet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 12 minutes ago, JTA66 said: I said I'd give it until 12z tomorrow, but obviously not seeing any encouraging trends today. Not ready to pull the plug, but I am looking around the room for the outlet. Same here. Not expecting anything at this point but keeping an eye out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 45 minutes ago, RedSky said: This is all covered in the weenie handbook chapter 12 historic cold periods are dry and dull with the proverbial lull, old timers will say "it's too cold to snow" Yeah..yeah I know. Point being it wouldn't take much to make me happy w/all the mounds already lying around which aren't going anywhere. (Refreshers) A squall/wind, few nickel and dime events or heavy flurries would keep me content... 18F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago EPS says don't throw in the towel for a pack refresher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 15 hours ago, The Iceman said: I was thinking this in Trenton today…absolute nightmare still! But other areas are really stacked high too. Another foot even and it’ll be really dangerous driving around. I saw dump trucks full of snow going somewhere, I know there’s a snow dump off Perry street in Trenton. Do they still dump it in the Delaware river? I think I remember that being a thing before. Back during the '96 storm, Philly was dumping so much snow in the Schuylkill that it got blocked up, so they had to dump in the Delaware. There are a few "infamous" pics of that still around. Then a week or two later, the temps went up into the 60s with overruning rain and the Schuykill flood pretty badly. I remember when the water finally went down and I was driving to work along it and you could see the water lines high up on the plowed snow mounds... plus there was a huge tree trunk that got wedged near the top of an arch of one of the stone railroad bridges that goes over the river! That tree trunk was there for months and they eventually did remove it. They have now been using huge "snow melter" trucks to melt the snow - at least downtown. They are doing that today around City Hall. I remember seeing one after I think, the 2010 or 2014 snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Both the 18z NAM and RGEM have snow in Norfolk at the end of their runs. If I were to extrapolate that, it’s usually a bad sign for us as that tends to suggest suppression/OTS. But I’m not going to extrapolate it, so never mind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Both the 18z NAM and RGEM have snow in Norfolk at the end of their runs. If I were to extrapolate that, it’s usually a bad sign for us as that tends to suggest suppression/OTS. But I’m not going to extrapolate it, so never mind. What are your thoughts regarding the possibility of cutbacks (lack of funding) to NOAA/NWS impacting model data early on and then getting better sampling later. Therefore odd model solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chadzachadam Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago NBM throws a few inches back towards Philly on Sunday and has most of South Jersey with over 6" I do think we likely end up with something here, Lehigh Valley might be out of luck but Philly and immediate burbs have a decent chance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago OP GFS only through 96 hrs is east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 10 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: OP GFS only through 96 hrs is east. The 18z AIGFS tries to tuck it in before it boots it OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said: The 18z AIGFS tries to tuck it in and before it boots it OTS. Do or do not... there is no try! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 31 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Both the 18z NAM and RGEM have snow in Norfolk at the end of their runs. If I were to extrapolate that, it’s usually a bad sign for us as that tends to suggest suppression/OTS. But I’m not going to extrapolate it, so never mind. I'm a big fan of not talking about things which don't fit my agenda and screw me over. Good move! I'm all for this... 15F @ 5:20pm Predicted low: I guess I'll have to cancel my overnight outdoor activities... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhilsFanDrew Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I've seen enough, nothing for LV this weekend. Good luck to the SEPA/NJ/DE folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 58 minutes ago Share Posted 58 minutes ago GFS for the 3rd run in a row trying to pop something around the 8th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 55 minutes ago Share Posted 55 minutes ago At least let GFS looks like our next period is 7th/9th. Been pretty consistently showing something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted 37 minutes ago Share Posted 37 minutes ago This will drive ChescoWx nuts. He'll whip out 5 different spreadsheets in a jiffy to prove this guy wrong... Today, from the Fox29 facebook page: 10F @ 6pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted 4 minutes ago Share Posted 4 minutes ago LOL and the Euro gets us back in the game... slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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