E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[JTA66]

Snow on snow. HH didn’t disappoint.

[ChescoWx]

18z GFS with a Chesco Special..... book it dano!

[BBasile]

1.20" of rain for the storm thus far.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 hours ago, Duca892 said:

What would it take for this to become real to most? This thing isn’t that long out. It’s in midrange. EURO/GFS is warning level snows for many in this target area. Seeing the EURO jump up like that was awesome. Other than the GFS holding at 18z. What would others like to see latch on next 

Need to see some semblance of a system on the ensembles means. There is hardly a reflection at all.right now, and thats odd with some of the deterministic guidance showing a decent storm. That in and of itself tells me this storm on the 15th likely won't be a huge deal here. Guess there's time for that to change but we need big changes with the 0z suite imho wrt the ens support.

[ChescoWx]

23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Need to see some semblance of a system on the ensembles means. There is hardly a reflection at all.right now, and thats odd with some of the deterministic guidance showing a decent storm. That in and of itself tells me this storm on the 15th likely won't be a huge deal here. Guess there's time for that to change but we need big changes with the 0z suite imho wrt the ens support.

Not a huge believer in even the ensembles at 5 days....I will be more interested in this thread the needle potential if they start to show something at 12z tomorrow.

[Newman]

Overnight models showing a pretty reasonable "fail mode" in the fast flow we're in... 1. All of the PVA escapes east of the low and 2. The trough struggles to turn negative and fully consolidate due to the kicker system. In the end, it just turns into a paltry ULL passage with light snows. Even if a coastal low does pop, it's so far removed from any moisture. That's not to say the current OP runs are horrible, if the "floor" is a light 2-3" event with jacks to 6, that's fine. But some of the bigger solutions will only pan out if we can get this more consolidated.

[Duca892]

As always this is from a no nothing like me, but I’m kind of throwing in the towel on anything warning level this week. Just seems to be pretty consistent now that it won’t blow up in time or it’s moisture starved 

[BBasile]

Ended up with 1.66" of rain.  

[MGorse]

A total of 1.04 inches of rain.

[ChescoWx]

Here in EN we have received 0.77" of rain since Friday. We turn back to near normal temperatures for January with highs both today and tomorrow near 40 degrees. We turn a bit milder for both Tuesday and Wednesday before we turn colder on Thursday with increasing chances of our 9th winter event towards the end of this work week. I would also keep an eye on some possible snow showers or a heavier snow squall this afternoon not too long before Eagles kick off - go birds!

[ChescoWx]

We have only recorded 11 snowstorms over 6" here in the last 10 years in Chester County. On average based on history we should have seen 15 such storms in a 10 year period. Below are the 11 snowstorms recorded here in Chester County over the last 10 years with greater than 6" of accumulation at a Chester County Station.

1/23/16 - 27.4" / 2/3/21 - 16.6" / 3/22/18 - 13.5" / 3/7/18 - 11.5" / 2/13/24 - 10.5" / 12/17/20 - 9.3" / 12/14/25 - 8.8" / 3/14/17 - 8.0" / 2/18/21 - 7.5" / 11/16/18 - 7.3"

[mattinpa]

2 hours ago, Duca892 said:

As always this is from a no nothing like me, but I’m kind of throwing in the towel on anything warning level this week. Just seems to be pretty consistent now that it won’t blow up in time or it’s moisture starved 

I’m not yet. But even a little snow after this warm break would be nice. 

[JTA66]

LOL…I never had a towel in my hand. I think the only guidance depicting a warning level event was the GFS at range.

Finished with 0.75” yesterday.

[ChescoWx]

The GFS with it's 1 - 2 punch for our next model snow event. Model snow we will never have to shovel

[The Iceman]

4 hours ago, Duca892 said:

As always this is from a no nothing like me, but I’m kind of throwing in the towel on anything warning level this week. Just seems to be pretty consistent now that it won’t blow up in time or it’s moisture starved 

After 30 + years of living here, I enjoy pretty much anything that makes it white outside. Looking pretty good for that still.

[Mikeymac5306]

54 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

The GFS with it's 1 - 2 punch for our next model snow event. Model snow we will never have to shovel

I think everyone in this forum will take this in a heartbeat if it verifies. 

[JTA66]

12z Euro does a little sumthin’ sumthin’

[penndotguy]

41F/Dp28 winds Nw @15 gust 27

1-3,2-4,4-8 etc. I’ll take whatever the pattern gives us, we had pretty Decent December so let’s keep it up in January. Don’t get me wrong a SECS or MECS would be great but something is always better than nothing. 

[Birds~69]

6 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

12z Euro does a little sumthin’ sumthin’

I always like a little something something but my priorities today are etched in stone.

1.Birds

2.Birds

3.Peak at models

Worst case scenario? Birds get trounced and blow torch models with no good news in sight....

[penndotguy]

42F/Dp22 with very light snow

[JTA66]

Getting a windy snow shower at 43F. We are so back baby!

[penndotguy]

40F/Dp22 just had a 39mph gust and another brief snow shower, temp down 2* in 30 minutes 

[Mikeymac5306]

Just ripped graupel for about 20 seconds in Exton. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Gusty snow shower here. 40F

[BBasile]

Got a little squally here.  Winds 21 mph with gusts to 33.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

10 minutes ago, BBasile said:

Got a little squally here.  Winds 21 mph with gusts to 33.  

Hey, I think I see my house 

GO BIRDS!!!!!!

[BBasile]

13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Hey, I think I see my house 

GO BIRDS!!!!!!

Go Birds!! 

[tcutter]

First the Eagles and then the models crank it up ❄️

 

[BBasile]

Got a little squally at the game, too, I guess.   lol