E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[penndotguy]

1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Good Lord, you'll never learn.

You may experiencing a upper frontal lobe past memory brain infection which affects expectations on future events which are unrealistic results/outcomes. Happens mainly within the weather community.

Treatment: Review the 99.999% of the time this didn't occur then smack yourself in the head 6 or 7 times, kick trashcans then tell yourself don't do this again until it happens again. Repeat therapy as needed... 

29F/Cloudy

Im good with it as long as no one starts a Storm thread outside of 5 days that's grounds for therapy.  

[ChescoWx]

Below is the 2025 Chester County PA Climate Summary

[Ralph Wiggum]

Euro has snow showers around overnight and again Monday AM. 

[Kevin Reilly]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro has snow showers around overnight and again Monday AM. 

Overriding warm air I’d suspect meeting up with the northern stream vort to the north and storm gliding by south. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Overriding warm air I’d suspect meeting up with the northern stream vort to the north and storm gliding by south. 

Warm front essentially

[Birds~69]

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro has snow showers around overnight and again Monday AM. 

Yep, I'm expecting overnight stuff into early AM. Just enough to give that wintry feel/look...

28F

[Birds~69]

1 hour ago, penndotguy said:

Im good with it as long as no one starts a Storm thread outside of 5 days that's grounds for therapy.  

That's even pushing it. 3 days out is fine by me...

[Mikeymac5306]

3 hours ago, penndotguy said:

Im good with it as long as no one starts a Storm thread outside of 5 days that's grounds for therapy.  

I at least I make sure the NAM has it before a thread is started.

 

I mean at least it's something to look at. Like watching fish in an aquarium.  

 

[Albedoman]

5 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

That's even pushing it. 3 days out is fine by me...

Mods should set as separate policy on starting new storm threads.  For example- The innitial storm post must be shown on at least 2 of  the the SR models at 3 days to be an immediate posting.  On the LR range models  the storm must be shown between 5-7 days on the at least two of the models such as GFS, CMC and or Euro IN AT LEAST TWO CONSECTUTIVE DAILY RUNS.   Anything else out further than 7 days is BS and is not immediate.  The problem is that the media and youtube hucksters out there pick up one model run 10-15 days out and run with it like it is a major crisis unfolding, like the polar vortex, one Noreaster pattern etc. They are ruining the relaibility of the forecasters on this site right now too. Hyped media is selling the weather story and not professional forecasting.  I welcome comments, especially from the long timers here. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

That's even pushing it. 3 days out is fine by me...

Jan 2016 storm I think I started a week out. That was a well-modeled storm.

[Ralph Wiggum]

32 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

Mods should set as separate policy on starting new storm threads.  For example- The innitial storm post must be shown on at least 2 of  the the SR models at 3 days to be an immediate posting.  On the LR range models  the storm must be shown between 5-7 days on the at least two of the models such as GFS, CMC and or Euro IN AT LEAST TWO CONSECTUTIVE DAILY RUNS.   Anything else out further than 7 days is BS and is not immediate.  The problem is that the media and youtube hucksters out there pick up one model run 10-15 days out and run with it like it is a major crisis unfolding, like the polar vortex, one Noreaster pattern etc. They are ruining the relaibility of the forecasters on this site right now too. Hyped media is selling the weather story and not professional forecasting.  I welcome comments, especially from the long timers here. 

If those are going to be the ground rules then AI can just create the threads. Scary to think that's where forecasting might be headed. The days of humans making the calls will be a thing of the past someday probably. I hope not, but you can kind of see the beginnings of that now. Heck, some of the weather apps just use the GFS output and an AI system fills in the forecast and sends it to the app. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Jan 2016 storm I think I started a week out. That was a well-modeled storm.

Im watching old clips on YouTube from that storm. 

31 inches here in NYC

[JTA66]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If those are going to be the ground rules then AI can just create the threads. Scary to think that's where forecasting might be headed. The days of humans making the calls will be a thing of the past someday probably. I hope not, but you can kind of see the beginnings of that now. Heck, some of the weather apps just use the GFS output and an AI system fills in the forecast and sends it to the app. 

It can be a frustrating hobby, but the unexpected also makes it fun. The day will come when we’ll know on June 16th that it will snow the following February 4th for 5 hours before changing over to light drizzle with a total accumulation of 3.2”.

I’ll accept the rugs pulls for the occasional unexpected overachievers. Guess I’ll always be an old timey weenie  

[ChescoWx]

11 hours ago, Albedoman said:

Mods should set as separate policy on starting new storm threads.  For example- The innitial storm post must be shown on at least 2 of  the the SR models at 3 days to be an immediate posting.  On the LR range models  the storm must be shown between 5-7 days on the at least two of the models such as GFS, CMC and or Euro IN AT LEAST TWO CONSECTUTIVE DAILY RUNS.   Anything else out further than 7 days is BS and is not immediate.  The problem is that the media and youtube hucksters out there pick up one model run 10-15 days out and run with it like it is a major crisis unfolding, like the polar vortex, one Noreaster pattern etc. They are ruining the relaibility of the forecasters on this site right now too. Hyped media is selling the weather story and not professional forecasting.  I welcome comments, especially from the long timers here. 

I have zero issues with folks posting long range models as sometimes they are onto something and as I always tell folks on my FB page....the good news is we never have to shovel or scrape even one run of model snow! I know folks on this forum understand what a model is and what it is not. That said on my FB page I always qualify any model post with NOT A FORECAST! This helps folks understand it is not hype, it is not a forecast it is simply one tool of many in the professional meteorologists tool box to make a forecast.  A model can never replace a professional meteorologists forecast! I also do not believe as Albedoman says "they are ruining the reliability of the forecasters on this site".  Professional forecasters and our NWS are not harmed by posting models that will never actually occur. They our NWS are the only true resource for real forecasts!! Imagine if we actually had to shovel or plow the amount of model snow output by these models the last 2 winters? If so my blower would have been broken long ago! LOL!!

[ChescoWx]

Today and tomorrow look to be our last below normal temperature days for almost a week. This week will be a welcome but likely brief break from wintry temperatures. The warmest days look to be next Friday and Saturday with highs in the low to mid 50's. Those days also look to feature our next best chances of some rain. There is a slight chance of some light snow or flurries tomorrow morning.

[Birds~69]

11 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Jan 2016 storm I think I started a week out. That was a well-modeled storm.

And more times than not it doesn't pan out. Either the precipitation is down or the rain snow line is trending toward the Poconos.

I have high blood pressure. No sense of stressing myself for 5 days following models 24hrs/day when I can do it in 3.

Looks like we have about a week+ of probably nothing. Maybe I'll get some shit done.

Go Birds and let's get the number two seed today...hope all the Bears players have the flu and can't play.

29F

[The Iceman]

59 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

And more times than not it doesn't pan out. Either the precipitation is down or the rain snow line is trending toward the Poconos.

I have high blood pressure. No sense of stressing myself for 5 days following models 24hrs/day when I can do it in 3.

Looks like we have about a week+ of probably nothing. Maybe I'll get some shit done.

Go Birds and let's get the number two seed today...hope all the Bears players have the flu and can't play.

29F

Huge Dan Campbell fan, he’ll have his guys ready to play. Enjoy the week off of tracking, after Monday we get a nice warm up for a few days to defrost before heading back into the freezer the following week. I’m hoping I can squeeze a day at the golf range before the rain next weekend.

[Birds~69]

27 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Huge Dan Campbell fan, he’ll have his guys ready to play. Enjoy the week off of tracking, after Monday we get a nice warm up for a few days to defrost before heading back into the freezer the following week. I’m hoping I can squeeze a day at the golf range before the rain next weekend.

Although I like the cold and winter weather, a week break is nice once in a while (but no more!) I can catch up on things without freezing my ass off every time I go outside.

Still some nice mounds in the parking lots which my weenie eyes observes probably too often. An accident waiting to happen especially in parking lots where  people have their head up their asses searching for parking spots which are literally 5 ft closer than an already open spot....

33F/partly sunny

[JTA66]

I wouldn’t mind a driving rain storm to wash away all the salt and brine.

[JTA66]

Amazing moonrise this evening 

[Mikeymac5306]

Nothing even fun to look at long range. What some might call a storm misses us off the coast around the 15th, then some blah in fantasy land. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

17 hours ago, JTA66 said:

I wouldn’t mind a driving rain storm to wash away all the salt and brine.

I actually miss the days we would get a steady rainstorm with times of driving rain...for 48 hrs...and finish with 3-4" of rain. Feel like that used to be common once if not twice a year.