E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Kevin Reilly]

High 53f 

Total rain: 0.08”

currently 37f humidity 60% dew point 25f winds WNW gusting past 40 mph. 

[Mikeymac5306]

Happy Hour GFS run is giggity big time.  Right where we want it! 

[Newman]

The big ones get sniffed out 8-10 days ahead of time. I remember tracking 2016 for what seemed like ages. The emotional rollercoaster ride when everything shifted south, only for the NAM to score a coup on bringing it further north within the last 2-3 days. Obviously the pattern coming up Jan 6-10th or so looks unreal with the retrograding NAO block and split flow, but details are TBD if there's good timing with short waves in the flow. If we can get a solidly timed PNA spike WITHOUT a shortwave kicker screwing things up, I truly think the ceiling is some of the big uns in history. Just go back and look at the preloading patterns of the biggest storms for PHL, DCA, BWI, NYC, etc

Edit just to add: In no way am I guaranteeing a KU, but it's gotta be encouraging seeing some semblance of a pattern that can support said larger storms vs. Pac puke and zonal flow. Or cold and dry Northwest flow

[KamuSnow]

Man it's windy out here! In the last half hour it really picked up. Power flickered a couple of times.

[JTA66]

You know it’s windy when you’re driving and the leaves are passing you.

32F

[RedSky]

As an added bonus the trash people never picked up late after the sleet storm therefore neighbours trash is now spread through the county

[LVblizzard]

Some parts of Allentown and Bethlehem just picked up a coating from a lake effect streamer.

[LVblizzard]

7 hours ago, Newman said:

The big ones get sniffed out 8-10 days ahead of time. I remember tracking 2016 for what seemed like ages. The emotional rollercoaster ride when everything shifted south, only for the NAM to score a coup on bringing it further north within the last 2-3 days. Obviously the pattern coming up Jan 6-10th or so looks unreal with the retrograding NAO block and split flow, but details are TBD if there's good timing with short waves in the flow. If we can get a solidly timed PNA spike WITHOUT a shortwave kicker screwing things up, I truly think the ceiling is some of the big uns in history. Just go back and look at the preloading patterns of the biggest storms for PHL, DCA, BWI, NYC, etc

Edit just to add: In no way am I guaranteeing a KU, but it's gotta be encouraging seeing some semblance of a pattern that can support said larger storms vs. Pac puke and zonal flow. Or cold and dry Northwest flow

I’ve never seen a storm as consistently modeled as January 2016. Aside from the 2 days of runs which suppressed the best snow south of Philly, the models were completely locked in on a huge snowstorm for a week and a half. I remember looking at a Euro ensemble run 10 days out with a big storm - which is wild to see on an ensemble mean that far out - and just knowing we’d have lots of long days and nights of tracking ahead. And then by day 7 every model run showed this monster storm crawling up the coast. I can’t remember any other storms that showed up day after day for so long like that.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Scattered snow showers and maybe even a heftier squall or 2 over the next 3 days. Deep winter indeed.

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Picked up 2 tenths of an inch of snow overnight via a lake effect streamer.

[Birds~69]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Picked up 2 tenths of an inch of snow overnight via a lake effect streamer.

Does that officially count as an event?

[ChescoWx]

Winds have been howling much of the night and will continue this morning before slowly subsiding later today. The sun returns today but we stay with well below normal temperatures for at least the next week with temperatures remaining below freezing till at least Saturday. We only warm slightly to just above freezing this weekend into early next week. There is a chance of a little snow later New Years Eve into New Years Day. If we do see some snow amounts should be light.

[Birds~69]

Philadelphia should leap ahead of Chicago as the Windy City. My hair is wigging in all sorts of directions which I didn't even know were possible...

29F/Overcast,Windy