12/2 Cold Rain and High Elevation Snow

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Wow! Euro would make us happy! 

 

We're never happy!

[bncho]

EPS is very aggressive

[wxmeddler]

Dancing on the edge of danger as always. 10kft of above -3C temps. And this is Westminster.

[DMAC98]

Peep the GFS trending colder with the onset precip. Euro might be on to something here

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS...

[North Balti Zen]

That’s a rather nice run. 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO

[Weather Will]

Latest from NWS

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Latest from NWS

Better for all

[mappy]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Latest from NWS

Amazing

[Eskimo Joe]

18 minutes ago, mappy said:

Amazing

You're looking good for this event. 

[Terpeast]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

You're looking good for this event. 

PSU will be happy too

[TSSN+]

Just now, Terpeast said:

PSU will be happy too

Looking up shoe recipes? 

[Imgoinhungry]

Tough call for schools Tuesday? Looks like snow from 4-8am or so before transitioning to rain? Id guess FCPS in MD closes while most other districts go with a two hour delay and then reassess?


.

[TSSN+]

Nam still warm but been colder each run. The slow collapse of the Nam. 

[mappy]

35 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You're looking good for this event. 

It does look promising for accumulating amounts 

[clueless]

This is crazy. Snow/sleet this morning and I’m close to the dark blue in that map. I’ll eat Terpseast’s shoes.  

[dukeblue219]

1 hour ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Tough call for schools Tuesday? Looks like snow from 4-8am or so before transitioning to rain? Id guess FCPS in MD closes while most other districts go with a two hour delay and then reassess?

2 hour delay is the logical solution for Mo, Ho, and Lo but you know Fairfax will close.

[mitchnick]

Personally, I'd feel more comfortable with the Nam and Icon being on board. I know they have problems, but to be this close to the event and they have the rain/snow line 75+ miles north is odd, even for them, within 48 hrs.

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Personally, I'd feel more comfortable with the Nam and Icon being on board. I know they have problems, but to be this close to the event and they have the rain/snow line 75+ miles north is odd, even for them, within 48 hrs.

They aren’t as good of models to pick up on the small things that matter. Nam has trended south each run so it’s slowly getting there. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

They aren’t as good of models to pick up on the small things that matter. Nam has trended south each run so it’s slowly getting there. 

True, but I prefer to panic while I'm young enough to have the energy.

[JenkinsJinkies]

5 hours ago, DMAC98 said:

Peep the GFS trending colder with the onset precip. Euro might be on to something here

SE trend is giving us the goods this time. Imagine February where a 2/19-20 tier storm is set to hit the Erie to Buffalo area but then it starts ticking further south and east with each successive run.

[Interstate]

Meh. Not as good as the 6z for most folks. I will still take it though. 

[bncho]

GFS actually starts as SNOW in the metros. Not as good for northern crew tho

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GFS basically the same, a tick warmer, but if you are looking for a 1-3 inch event you are still in the game.

[Weather Will]

The red flag, however, is not one mesoscale model is forecasting snow. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS basically the same, a tick warmer, but if you are looking for a 1-3 inch event you are still in the game.

Bit of a step back. Just don't want it to be the start of a trend. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, Weather Will said:

The red flag, however, is not one mesoscale model is forecasting snow. 

That’s not correct. Rgem is and hrrr at hour 48 12z was heading towards a snow solution. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, Weather Will said:

The red flag, however, is not one mesoscale model is forecasting snow. 

Nam isn't, but Rgem is, though not as good as Gfs.

Still, like I posted earlier, I  would like to see the Nam and icon come for the ride.

[TSSN+]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Bit of a step back. Just don't want it to be the start of a trend. 

More in line with Rgem outcome now. And more matches nws forecast.