12/2 Cold Rain and High Elevation Snow

[mitchnick]

Just now, CAPE said:

 h5 looks radical.

 

Surface looks mundane...

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Surface looks mundane...

I'll take it 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Surface looks mundane...

In other words surface looks very Dec 6th in the Mid-Atlantic.

[87storms]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

Believe in the N and W jackpot!

I've made my yearly transition to wanting a snowstorm, so I'm in.

[87storms]

48 minutes ago, bncho said:

18z euro is a hold, better than 12z

We're officially in the model war portion of the program.  0z will be the most important runs of the season.  I'm expecting convergence soon.

[mitchnick]

I feel like a new man knowing the Srefs are getting on-board. Giddy up!

[Ji]

 h5 looks radical.

 

Oh geez

[T. August]

Man the euro is bringing me back in - gets an inch+ even here. That would be chill.

[Solution Man]

NWS forecast continues to be more wintry like for Western Prince William county 

[Maestrobjwa]

Oh even the pretty patterns and decent setups...that dang unpredictable northern stream...

[CAPE]

25 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh even the pretty patterns and decent setups...that dang unpredictable northern stream...

Stop whining about the NS lol. In winter a busy NS is the norm more times than not, unless we are torching, then who cares. A quiet NS in a 'good winter pattern' usually only happens when we have a legit persistent NA blocking pattern like 2009-10, in something like the ideal Modoki Nino with a legit southern jet. Doesnt happen that often.

[SnowenOutThere]

[Maestrobjwa]

26 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Stop whining about the NS lol. In winter a busy NS is the norm more times than not, unless we are torching, then who cares. A quiet NS in a 'good winter pattern' usually only happens when we have a legit persistent NA blocking pattern like 2009-10, in something like the ideal Modoki Nino with a legit southern jet. Doesnt happen that often.

Oh wow I knew it was the norm but I didn't know it was THAT rare. So even in some non-Modoki ninos it's still present, huh?

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh wow I knew it was the norm but I didn't know it was THAT rare. So even in some non-Modoki ninos it's still present, huh?

In general Ninos with blocking have a less active NS, but not always. We saw a case recently where the blocking was underwhelming in reality, despite what the models persistently advertised.

[TSSN+]

Rgem for viewing pleasure 

 

[mitchnick]

Hey @TSSN+

[Chris78]

Gfs slowing creeping south.

Nice thump for N+W

[bncho]

GFS is a HAIR better.

[mitchnick]

Gfs is 6"+ for N MD and PA

[mitchnick]

[mitchnick]

Expand the Gfs coverage and you have the Euro AI

[TSSN+]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Sold let’s ride 

[bncho]

CMC is SOMETHING DIFFERENT than its last 15890 runs! Some sleet in the metros

[bncho]

ok, even though it looks all frozen for the metros idk how it's going to zr at 34. Better run though from the CMC

[87storms]

Euro continues to steer the ship.

[Ji]

ok, even though it looks all frozen for the metros idk how it's going to zr at 34. Better run though from the CMC

Maybe the ground is 32?

[bncho]

I'll say this. The Euro was more NW meaning it was slightly more amped but it had more precipitation to overcome the marginal temps. 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EURO: hope it is right!!!

[bncho]

OH @Terpeast!!!!!

 

[midatlanticweather]

Wow! Euro would make us happy!