12/2 Cold Rain and High Elevation Snow

[mitchnick]

Just now, CAPE said:

 h5 looks radical.

 

Surface looks mundane...

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Surface looks mundane...

I'll take it 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Surface looks mundane...

In other words surface looks very Dec 6th in the Mid-Atlantic.

[87storms]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

Believe in the N and W jackpot!

I've made my yearly transition to wanting a snowstorm, so I'm in.

[87storms]

48 minutes ago, bncho said:

18z euro is a hold, better than 12z

We're officially in the model war portion of the program.  0z will be the most important runs of the season.  I'm expecting convergence soon.

[mitchnick]

I feel like a new man knowing the Srefs are getting on-board. Giddy up!

[Ji]

 h5 looks radical.

 

Oh geez

[T. August]

Man the euro is bringing me back in - gets an inch+ even here. That would be chill.

[Solution Man]

NWS forecast continues to be more wintry like for Western Prince William county 

[Maestrobjwa]

Oh even the pretty patterns and decent setups...that dang unpredictable northern stream...

[CAPE]

25 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh even the pretty patterns and decent setups...that dang unpredictable northern stream...

Stop whining about the NS lol. In winter a busy NS is the norm more times than not, unless we are torching, then who cares. A quiet NS in a 'good winter pattern' usually only happens when we have a legit persistent NA blocking pattern like 2009-10, in something like the ideal Modoki Nino with a legit southern jet. Doesnt happen that often.

[SnowenOutThere]

[Maestrobjwa]

26 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Stop whining about the NS lol. In winter a busy NS is the norm more times than not, unless we are torching, then who cares. A quiet NS in a 'good winter pattern' usually only happens when we have a legit persistent NA blocking pattern like 2009-10, in something like the ideal Modoki Nino with a legit southern jet. Doesnt happen that often.

Oh wow I knew it was the norm but I didn't know it was THAT rare. So even in some non-Modoki ninos it's still present, huh?

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh wow I knew it was the norm but I didn't know it was THAT rare. So even in some non-Modoki ninos it's still present, huh?

In general Ninos with blocking have a less active NS, but not always. We saw a case recently where the blocking was underwhelming in reality, despite what the models persistently advertised.