First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[ineedsnow]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

EPS mean bumped NW. 

That looks like a pretty good bump.. I thought the op would have moved more like that

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Did not cave. I mean its about as locked in as it can. Ignore if you must but the excuses to toss are piling up as to why. 

Sorry, But id did, It barely had any precip up here, Its .55" now , It caved.

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Did not cave. I mean its about as locked in as it can. Ignore if you must but the excuses to toss are piling up as to why. 

If it wins this we can put the crown back on it, but there’s a reason we’ve posted the King Nothing vid numerous times the past few years.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Sorry, But id did, It barely had any precip up here, Its .55" , It caved.

I think the typical GFS euro compromise has worked. GFS bumped quite a bit south over the last 18 hours.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, dryslot said:

Sorry, But id did, It barely had any precip up here, Its .55" , It caved.

QPF lol dude it got bigger with its spatial area. The thermals are locked. I encourage everyone to do soundings for your area. Man what a paste bomb here. Power issues after 8 inches of heavy paste.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

If it wins this we can put the crown back on it, but there’s a reason we’ve posted the King Nothing vid numerous times the past few years.

A great meme for it and also one of my favorite Metallica songs.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think the typical GFS euro compromise has worked. GFS bumped quite a bit south over the last 18 hours.

I don't think anyone bought the GFS being that far west or the euro being that far east.

[Ginx snewx]

Skynet is 8 to 12 for a huge area

[Prismshine Productions]

Who the fuck gave Ineedsnow the spiked eggnog

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[CoastalWx]

Brett, your area and especially up through Foxboro, Sharon, etc. has the best chance of getting closer to those clown amounts. But even that is gonna be high. You really will need to rip a hole through the atmosphere I think to get something that would wetbulb to 32 and get you those amounts. After three years of seeing -1 to -2 at 925 and nothing but cat paws to show for it. I feel like I’m on repeat here especially early in the season. We’ll see.

i’m not being pessimistic trust me there’s no one who wants things to break right more than me, I just hate when people get all disappointed because they thought they were gonna get more than actuality because they bought some of those clown amounts. So yeah south and east of 95  I definitely would not believe those amounts.

[Ginx snewx]

Jeffafafafa you looking at both storms?  as the 0z and 12 Z runs didn't change your qpf much.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Brett, your area and especially up through Foxboro, Sharon, etc. has the best chance of getting closer to those clown amounts. But even that is gonna be high. You really will need to rip a hole through the atmosphere I think to get something that would wetbulb to 32 and get you those amounts. After three years of seeing -1 to -2 at 925 and nothing but cat paws to show for it. I feel like I’m on repeat here especially early in the season. We’ll see.

i’m not being pessimistic trust me there’s no one who wants things to break right more than me, I just hate when people get all disappointed because they thought they were gonna get more than actuality because they bought some of those clown amounts. So yeah south and east of 95  I definitely would not believe those amounts.

I don’t disagree, the last 3-5 years have been dreadful and we’ve been on the wrong end of everything. No debate there.

Last year particularly it was a lot of 33 rain.

i also don’t expect the euro to be right. Even a 70/30 euro compromise isn’t snowing here. 

[moneypitmike]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Skynet is 8 to 12 for a huge area

What area?

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

What area?

Sne

[Prismshine Productions]

im thinking 3-6 for me or did I for once go way too conservative

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I don’t disagree, the last 3-5 years have been dreadful and we’ve been on the wrong end of everything. No debate there.

Last year particularly it was a lot of 33 rain.

i also don’t expect the euro to be right. Even a 70/30 euro compromise isn’t snowing here. 

I think with the thermal fields aee closer to reality on euro, but the problem is you have to understand what it’s trying to show you in our area. In my professional opinion, it’s just a little too warm for a majority of this to fall as snow. Especially south and east of 95.

I think we could flip at the end and that’s kind of what I’m hoping for. It also may briefly start as snow too.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

13 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Who the fuck gave Ineedsnow the spiked eggnog

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk
 

I was wondering where you were.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

im thinking 3-6 for me or did I for once go way too conservative

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk
 

Could be higher, but that’s a safe bet. If it goes full euro, then we might be 2-4”. 

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I think with the thermal fields aee closer to reality on euro, but the problem is you have to understand what it’s trying to show you in our area. In my professional opinion, it’s just a little too warm for a majority of this to fall as snow. Especially south and east of 95.

I think we could flip at the end and that’s kind of what I’m hoping for. It also may briefly start as snow too.

The subplot of Tblizz vs George is what I'm here for. 

Not expecting a flake here. Too bad the euro is the coldest model again. I feel like it's been prone to that in recent years, even if it ends up as a compromise. JAM

[tavwtby]

original call here of 4-6 will stand until further notice, nice compromise of GFS and Euro, think jackpot North ORH cty, looks like double digits possible.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

The subplot of Tblizz vs George is what I'm here for. 

Not expecting a flake here. Too bad the euro is the coldest model again. I feel like it's been prone to that in recent years, even if it ends up as a compromise. JAM

One thing in previous years that we kinda didn’t have around here to flip to snow, was insane rates. I suppose this one in theory could have that, so I guess that’s the only thing to hope for.

[Modfan2]

Looks like BOX hoisted a Winter Storm

Watch; nothing currently for

CT or RI

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Modfan2 said:

Looks like BOX hoisted a Winter Storm

Watch; nothing currently for

CT or RI

Lower confidence there. I tend to agree. Can always hoist early tomorrow. 

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

One thing in previous years that we kinda didn’t have around here to flip to snow, was insane rates. I suppose this one in theory could have that, so I guess that’s the only thing to hope for.

yes, a few of those intense Euro runs from 11/28 may have pulled it off even close to the coast.