First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[HoarfrostHubb]

5-7 here seems likely.  I do think sleet will be a bit of a factor as the warm tinge erodes its way in.  

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

5-7 here seems likely.  I do think sleet will be a bit of a factor as the warm tinge erodes its way in.  

I think any mix is really limited. Seems more like a rain or snow deal.

[moneypitmike]

12z HRRR and RAP.  These are essentially the last maps that will capture the entire storm (subsequent ones will miss any earlier accums).

 

 

[WinterWolf]

I’ll take those…between 1-2 inches on those…it’s a start. 

[Torch Tiger]

You know its a shit storm when oes streamers from block island are your best bet

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

12z HRRR and RAP.  These are essentially the last maps that will capture the entire storm (subsequent ones will miss any earlier accums).

 

 

I actually like this depiction for this ... I mentioned yesterday to Henry that I though roughly White Plains-Hartford-Worcester-Portsmouth was going to be hard to penetrate warmth beyond that axis. 

I've also been scratching my head as to what I feel were bloated modeled QPF numbers.   The 06z NAM has abruptly corrected down and is just 1/3 of the previous modeled totals at Logan... while the Euro has been moving the system so damn fast - in fact ..that's the theme with this all along.  Real quick hitter.  This is a candidate to both be marginally colder than the consensus, while also ... a bit lighter as a total result.  

 

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not sure what Dinx is referring to but enjoy it dude. You live there for a reason and it’s for things like today . Hopefully you get 10” and poles and trees are snapped. I’ll be rooting for you 

Thanks Kev.. and ya I moved here for a reason I would be losing it if I was still in the valley.. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Thanks Kev.. and ya I moved here for a reason I would be losing it if I was still in the valley.. 

Or in the hills of Tolland 

[weatherwiz]

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s warming quickly just off the deck 

Even inland farther inland (outside of SE CT, RI, E MA)?

[ineedsnow]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Or in the hills of Tolland 

hoping you get something and we trend a bit colder

[tavwtby]

first flakes here 9:00, sitting at 26/21

[ineedsnow]

13z HRRR coming in a bit colder again

[Typhoon Tip]

It's starting to slowly penetrate my dense skull. If this system was encountering a better +PP N of the region, its affects might not be felt this far N, anyway. 

Kind of a trade off.   The system is ultimately not very significant in the tropospheric wave space. It's positively tilted, and partially absorbed into the background fast progressive/velocitysoaked circulation type. 

Also, as Will commiserated recently, we're lacking that higher pressure pattern situated N.  These fast flow types make static +PP over-topping harder to come by, because the confluent structures break down to quickly and transition away.  It's been plaguing our winters for a few years ... this fast shit.  It's annoying.  But there's a reason for it, and the resulting less high pressure situated N while storm systems move into and/or under our latitude, has become the leitmotif - frustrating for pure snow enthusiasts because the consequence means enter warming implications here [  hint, add today ]. 

That said, this system is middling and subtly trended less.  If there were more high pressure N, I'm starting to see that the meaningful impact may have ended up more suppressed, perhaps too much so to have even risen this thread to 50+ pages. 

Having said all that...in this situation, I agree with Scott's sentiment to Kevin there - it's a bit of a race.  The low is moving well S of LI down there. When it gets roughly to HFD's longitude, the flow will begin to torque around and come more E than S...then, NE and end N... At some point during that rotation, the warm simply won't be able to get farther NW.

 

[ORH_wxman]

3k NAM has a decent ending in E MA....prob a couple inches anyway. Esp near and N of pike. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's starting to occur to penetrate my dense skull if this system was encountering a better +PP N of the region, its affects might not be felt this far N. 

Kind of a trade off.   The system is ultimately not very significant in the tropospheric wave space. It's positively tilted, and partially absorbed into the background fast progressive/velocitysoaked circulation type. 

Also, as Will commiserated recently, we're lacking the higher pressure situated N.  These fast flow types make static +PP over-topping harder to come by, because the confluent structures break down to quickly and transition away.  It's been plaguing our winters for a few years ... this fast shit.  It's annoying.  But there's a reason for it, and the resulting less high pressure situated N while storm systems move into and/or under our latitude, has become the leitmotif - frustrating for pure snow enthusiasts because the consequence means enter warming implications here [  hint, today ]. 

That said, this system is middling and subtly trended less.  If there were more high pressure N, I'm starting to see that the meaningful impact may have ended up more suppressed. 

Funny you say this because I've been thinking the same thing. If we had better positioned highs with these setups, we would see suppressed storms or really strung out garbage in which the northern shield of the precipitation shield gets eroded away with drier air draining in. For HP positioned to our north, we want that when systems are coming up the coast, probably not advancing WNW out of the deep south. 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Funny you say this because I've been thinking the same thing. If we had better positioned highs with these setups, we would see suppressed storms or really strung out garbage in which the northern shield of the precipitation shield gets eroded away with drier air draining in. For HP positioned to our north, we want that when systems are coming up the coast, probably not advancing WNW out of the deep south. 

I added to that....in this situation, I agree with Scott's sentiment to Kevin there - it's a bit of a race.  The low is moving well S of LI down there. When it gets roughly to HFD's longitude, the flow will begin to torque around and come more E than S...then, NE and end N... At some point during that rotation, the warm simply won't be able to get farther NW.

[ORH_wxman]

Nice snow map on the HRRR (I'm the red dot)

 

 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I added to that....in this situation, I agree with Scott's sentiment to Kevin there - it's a bit of a race.  The low is moving well S of LI down there. When it gets roughly to HFD's longitude, the flow will begin to torque around and come more E than S...then, NE and end N... At some point during that rotation, the warm simply won't be able to get farther NW.

Yeah no disagreement there...I was just more curious as to where this race is occurring more quickly right now...like where that cutoff is. I could probably pull up radarscope and look for melting layers like Scott referenced. Mesoanalysis is actually not very useful for these warming situations, especially when the warming is in between layers.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Yeah no disagreement there...I was just more curious as to where this race is occurring more quickly right now...like where that cutoff is. I could probably pull up radarscope and look for melting layers like Scott referenced. Mesoanalysis is actually not very useful for these warming situations, especially when the warming is in between layers.

I like these HRRR recent returns.  They seem to compromise between interior cold wall resistance, versus the erosion of lacking +PP situated N.  I'm good with a compromise, because it shows at least that the models f'n can see that it's 27/19 in Sutton ( for ex.)

[moneypitmike]

Fugly for here.

 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I like these HRRR recent returns.  They seem to compromise between interior cold wall resistance, versus the erosion of lacking +PP situated N.  I'm good with a compromise, because it shows at least that the models f'n can see that it's 27/19 in Sutton ( for ex.)

Yeah I think there is some encouragement here seeing the HRRR tick a bit colder in spots versus warmer. This could bode well for those right on the line. When the HRRR gradually ticks in a particular direction, it's generally sniffing something out but crawls at a turtle's pace to get there

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nice snow map on the HRRR (I'm the red dot)

 

 

You and Ray did you move recently?  I thought you were NW of there -   why would you of all people move to that warm caldron lower elevation.  lol

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah no disagreement there...I was just more curious as to where this race is occurring more quickly right now...like where that cutoff is. I could probably pull up radarscope and look for melting layers like Scott referenced. Mesoanalysis is actually not very useful for these warming situations, especially when the warming is in between layers.

The mix line will surge north quicker to the east but eventually slow near NH border. Where Kevin is, it will be slower but it’s coming. Hrrr still seems a little too warm today over the interior.

[Damage In Tolland]

Light snow just started 29.5

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You and Ray did you move recently?  I thought you were NW of there -   why would you of all people move to that warm caldron lower elevation.  lol

Lol yeah...I got married and had kids, so it had to be close enough to work. Still not a bad location (and a bit of elevation near 400 feet) but not nearly as good as winter hill was....that place was a relative snow magnet with the 900+ elevation.