Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Malacka11]

I think honest to jah I'm on the Alek train of just wanting interesting weather and then maybe tack on a white Christmas being mandatory for an A winter even if it's unreasonable 

[Frog Town]

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Prayers 4 McHenrysnow

I think this includes all of us..

[DocATL]

Let’s shut it down. Today officially reprogrammed my brain for the season. The warmer the better.


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[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, Frog Town said:

I think this includes all of us..

World of difference in the type of winter it was between western and eastern sub this winter. Though I do have to correct McHenry, chicagos winter will not end up warmer than avg.

[michsnowfreak]

46 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Let’s shut it down. Today officially reprogrammed my brain for the season. The warmer the better.


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There's no need to shut it down. If theres nothing to discuss, then no need to post. But snow potential is nowhere near finished. 

[A-L-E-K]

Zzzzz

[Baum]

8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

There's no need to shut it down. If theres nothing to discuss, then no need to post. But snow potential is nowhere near finished. 

Really have no need for snow after March 15

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, Baum said:

Really have no need for snow after March 15

Youre in the majority on that train of thought....but it still doesn't mean its not going to happen lol. 

[roardog]

It’s the time of year where I just hope it’s active. Those days of sunny and 40s we seem to get a lot of in March around here are boring. 

[A-L-E-K]

Very bad

Warm and wet turning into nw flow and cad

[DocATL]

There's no need to shut it down. If theres nothing to discuss, then no need to post. But snow potential is nowhere near finished. 

Low likelihood outside of climo favored areas to the north. At least for majority of March.


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[Chicago Storm]

Very bad
Warm and wet turning into nw flow and cad

looks like this will have significant pull after-all…

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, DocATL said:

Low likelihood outside of climo favored areas to the north. At least for majority of March.


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Not true. I understand youre still relatively new to the region, but March/April climo is its own entity. Unless an abnormally cold pattern is in place to start March, this is the end of deep/sustained winter for the southern Lakes. However the mere chance of a snowstorm, much less measurable snow, is very much there into mid April amd sometimes beyond.

[frostfern]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Not true. I understand youre still relatively new to the region, but March/April climo is its own entity. Unless an abnormally cold pattern is in place to start March, this is the end of deep/sustained winter for the southern Lakes. However the mere chance of a snowstorm, much less measurable snow, is very much there into mid April amd sometimes beyond.

Yes, but April concrete slop sucks.  I’ll take the moisture, but its not the same as a deep winter storm.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, frostfern said:

Yes, but April concrete slop sucks.  I’ll take the moisture, but its not the same as a deep winter storm.

I understand. My entire point was that snowfall potential us nowhere near done.

[DocATL]

I understand. My entire point was that snowfall potential us nowhere near done.

I just think you’ll be banking on April. March looks pretty cooked through the first 3 weeks. Not saying it can’t happen up here and certainly you’d know better. Just seems like the odds are stacked against us at least in MBY.

[A-L-E-K]

def looks like winter temps will make a reappearance after pre spring #2

 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, DocATL said:

I just think you’ll be banking on April. March looks pretty cooked through the first 3 weeks. Not saying it can’t happen up here and certainly you’d know better. Just seems like the odds are stacked against us at least in MBY.

Remember, while a big snowstorm can happen, im simply referring to getting accumulating snow. I dont think you realize how rare it is to get NO measurable snow after Feb 28th. Since 1884, it happened once at Chicago (1994) and since 1880 it happened twice at Detroit (1946, 2010). In 2010 we had snow on the ground to start March, so only 1946 saw no semblance of measurable snow after Feb 28.

 

 

[DocATL]

Remember, while a big snowstorm can happen, im simply referring to getting accumulating snow. I dont think you realize how rare it is to get NO measurable snow after Feb 28th. Since 1884, it happened once at Chicago (1994) and since 1880 it happened twice at Detroit (1946, 2010). In 2010 we had snow on the ground to start March, so only 1946 saw no semblance of measurable snow after Feb 28.
 
 

We’ve had 0.2 inches at ORD since like Feb 2nd so it’ll be a lengthy stretch.


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[hawkeye_wx]

Last night's Euro has a high of 80º+ next Tuesday ahead of a strong cold front, with a few pockets reaching the mid 80s, before the pattern turns much colder.

[A-L-E-K]

the cad that follows is gonna really sting huh

[DocATL]

Hopefully we get some decent rain before drying out in the northwest flow. Gotta hope it’s over-modeled.


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[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, DocATL said:

Hopefully we get some decent rain before drying out in the northwest flow. Gotta hope it’s over-modeled.


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Who says the NW flow will be all dry?

[cyclone77]

10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Who says the NW flow will be all dry?

Probably for everyone other than Michigan if it's like the rest of the winter.  

[DocATL]

Who says the NW flow will be all dry?

Past is prologue.

[DocATL]

Probably for everyone other than Michigan if it's like the rest of the winter.  

True…not a universal thing. Michigan may still do well.

[A-L-E-K]

0z gfs crapped out a season saver in fantasy range but it quickly went poof 

[WestMichigan]

37 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

0z gfs crapped out a season saver in fantasy range but it quickly went poof 

As soon as I saw 0z gfs I knew this wasn't going to end well.

[A-L-E-K]

on the plus side, most of us hanging onto decent qpf totals on ensemble guidance over the next week or so

[frostfern]

5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

on the plus side, most of us hanging onto decent qpf totals on ensemble guidance over the next week or so

Badly in need of a road wash.  Looking grimy out here.