Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mimillman]

8 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

looking like a bust

12z ECMWF says not so fast 

[A-L-E-K]

meh

[mimillman]

More mean cashing in a bit more on present pattern. Clippers are back 

[hlcater]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

meh

Some reason to believe week 3 might be a return to a cooler pattern which is why I posted in the other thread that the lead system this weekend matters so much as it would help mitigate warming in week 2 in the northern half of the sub.

[cyclone77]

Kind of a shame to see that nice weekend clipper quickly crap the bed as it enters Iowa.  Hopefully the models are too quick to crap it.

[nvck]

Eyeing next tuesday-wednesday-thursday for the next possible system of note around here. GRR mentions a lot of uncertainty, but the west ridge being a little more amplified should allow for a sw or two to ride the ridge down to the GL area and maybe bring a couple inches of snow. Would be a nice send-off from Michigan 

EPS 24hr snowfall very cluttered in that timespan but that 2nd system, late on the 10th-11th, has been uptrending a little bit the past few runs. 

[A-L-E-K]

yeah that wave has had the most promise of the bunch

[IWXwx]

12 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Kind of a shame to see that nice weekend clipper quickly crap the bed as it enters Iowa.  Hopefully the models are too quick to crap it.

You look to be in the best position of almost anybody in the forum to see some decent accumulations before it peters out.

[hawkeye_wx]

It's a very active pattern over the next couple weeks.  There will be an alternating series of brief mild and cold surges.  The Euro is showing quite a temp contrast a week from now between the plains and lakes.

[A-L-E-K]

clippers really are baroclinic systems at the end of the day

[Chicago916]

Just now, A-L-E-K said:

clippers really are baroclinic systems at the end of the day

Winter "MCS" szn

[migratingwx]

Today's 12Z EPS suggests that any mid month moderation will be short lived. Earlier in the week, it was becoming apparent there would be a modest warm up in the 3rd week of December. However, EPS no longer even gets the ridge east of the Mississippi. It makes it midway, then gets squashed to the SW as another trough develops in the East at the end of the run.

 

[A-L-E-K]

starting to look like p type issues for next week as we enter a moneyman pattern

[IWXwx]

moneyman

[nvck]

all-time weenie run for Mid-Michigan on the 6z gfs...

[A-L-E-K]

mid range gfs is really pure zzzzs for the entire CONUS, nothing but the occasional minor league duster racing across the midwest

for better or worse, nw flow pattern looks stuck af  

[sbnwx85]

Hoping we can cash in on some short duration lake effect events following the clippers next week on this side of the lake.

[RogueWaves]

13 hours ago, nvck said:

all-time weenie run for Mid-Michigan on the 6z gfs...

And not 300+ hours away, lol

[nvck]

11 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

And not 300+ hours away, lol

#lockingitin  (its 15mb weaker and a fifth of the snow on the new runs)

[Spartman]

6-10 day:


8-14 day:

[A-L-E-K]

euro teasing out some fun looking solutions for late week/weekend period, time to lock in

[ChiTownSnow]

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

euro teasing out some fun looking solutions for late week/weekend period, time to lock in

AIFS has an interesting play as well on that dec 14thish system that has the arctic front associated with it.   could be interesting as GFS beginining to show support for it 

[A-L-E-K]

it's got that suppression stink, hopefully the snowier solutions gain favor here over the next couple days

most guidance gets p fugly in a week or so, so our window may be closing for a bit

[sbnwx85]

16 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

euro teasing out some fun looking solutions for late week/weekend period, time to lock in

Saturday looking interesting.

[KeenerWx]

Expected variability in the outcomes modeled over the next 7 days. But good signals of snow across the sub and looking solid for Josh & crew to get some moments. Have to appreciate the run we’re having after stacking some abysmal seasons. 

[A-L-E-K]

4 hours ago, sbnwx85 said:

Saturday looking interesting.

Yeah euro continues to have more exciting solutions to this piece, gem not awful, gfs a suppressed slider

Per EPS it's still looking like the pattern becomes more hostile mid to late month, so this is our moment to stack a good December number

[Baum]

23 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Yeah euro continues to have more exciting solutions to this piece, gem not awful, gfs a suppressed slider

Per EPS it's still looking like the pattern becomes more hostile mid to late month, so this is our moment to stack a good December number

Ive heard the rumors on both.

[A-L-E-K]

Quote

It`s still too early to have much
confidence in snow amounts with each of these snowfall
opportunities. However, it can be said that the cold and dry air
infiltrating the region should support generally lower QPF
amounts, but higher snow-to-liquid ratios that correlate to
fluffier snow characters (and possibly even dust-like snow,
particularly in the case of this weekend).

ready 2 b dusted

[hawkeye_wx]

It appears we could get a couple more refresher snows before the bottom drops out next weekend.  The Euro has a -35º wind chill here Sunday morning.  

[nvck]

looks like 4-6" probable here by tomorrow afternoon, the hrrr finally got with the program and came way south.