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Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion


michsnowfreak
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Eyeing next tuesday-wednesday-thursday for the next possible system of note around here. GRR mentions a lot of uncertainty, but the west ridge being a little more amplified should allow for a sw or two to ride the ridge down to the GL area and maybe bring a couple inches of snow. Would be a nice send-off from Michigan 

EPS 24hr snowfall very cluttered in that timespan but that 2nd system, late on the 10th-11th, has been uptrending a little bit the past few runs. 

gefsens-sfcmslp-meanmem-conus-2025120406-156.thumb.jpg.164dca11b81b12790fc2b7c887173d08.jpg

850621277_Screenshot2025-12-04at10-32-39Modelviewer.thumb.jpg.17604d2eb4e018518196331640986c38.jpg

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12 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Kind of a shame to see that nice weekend clipper quickly crap the bed as it enters Iowa.  Hopefully the models are too quick to crap it.

You look to be in the best position of almost anybody in the forum to see some decent accumulations before it peters out.

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Today's 12Z EPS suggests that any mid month moderation will be short lived. Earlier in the week, it was becoming apparent there would be a modest warm up in the 3rd week of December. However, EPS no longer even gets the ridge east of the Mississippi. It makes it midway, then gets squashed to the SW as another trough develops in the East at the end of the run.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-6145600.thumb.png.6412c029335a44edc37ae5d87190d675.png

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