December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It was just a poor model living off an old reputation it lost multiple "upgrades" ago.

I mean I like where it’s at. Just juice that up a bit and that’s a really good run. As is I’ll still take 2-3” anyway 

[MillvilleWx]

AIFS and ECWMF are in closer proxy to each other wrt handling the 5H pattern. A little flatter and confluence better for here, however the HP to the north isn't as pronounced compared to GFS/CMC which would play a role into the antecedent airmass domain the storm would attack. Guess is the GFS/CMC are too amped at the moment and will likely shift closer to the AIFS/ECENS combo. This has climo, fall line type event written all over it. Early in the season for the lowlands.

[bncho]

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone except the folks skipping dinner because the 18z runs are basically their dinner.

Hopefully your relatives understand why you keep “checking the oven” with a phone in your hand.

[aldie 22]

52 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ukmet 

 

My current location is in the light blue my new home will be in the 6.8" area...sadly I don't move until December 18th

[SnowenOutThere]

I think there's some interesting stuff going on up at the H5 levels that is leading to the surface differences between the Euro and GFS. If we look into the Euro's H5 it has a northern piece of energy which destructively interferes with the developing coastal as it seems to string it out. 

Meanwhile, the GFS firstly deemphasizes this piece of energy and secondly absorbs what's left of it into the system which obviously creates a more amplified storm.

At this point who knows which ones is correct but I think is something to watch for

 

[simbasad2]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It was just a poor model living off an old reputation it lost multiple "upgrades" ago.

The Euro nailed like every storm last year, no? Other than 2/20 of course but nobody got that one right

[bncho]

Just now, simbasad2 said:

The Euro nailed like every storm last year, no? Other than 2/20 of course but nobody got that one right

the one time we needed to nail a storm it didn't. but that's the euro for you

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

My current location is in the light blue my new home will be in the 6.8" area...sadly I don't move until December 18th

If this verifies for the 3rd then statistically there'll be more to come throughout the season.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, simbasad2 said:

The Euro nailed like every storm last year, no? Other than 2/20 of course but nobody got that one right

No it struggled with the one big storm we did have it was showing it as 1-3” up to like 24hrs before the event and then we got 7”. 

[WxUSAF]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'd rather the Euro be weak at this point instead of a bomb it advertised all last year to no avail. 

Euro like solution “feels” right to me based on seasonal trends

[Terpeast]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Euro like solution “feels” right to me based on seasonal trends

You just said my quiet thought out loud. The 12z gfs took a step closer to euro compared to 0z, so we’ll see if this is the start of a trend. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro like solution “feels” right to me based on seasonal trends

Euro is monthly climo snowfall for all of the folks north and west of I-95. Sign me up.

[simbasad2]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

No it struggled with the one big storm we did have it was showing it as 1-3” up to like 24hrs before the event and then we got 7”. 

Oh yeah I know which one you're talking about, 1/19. It actually did pretty well in the medium range compared to other guidance which had the storm like 100 miles off the coast. Though I do agree it did pretty bad in the short range like you said, but it's not like any other global model did much better for that storm though

[stormtracker]

35 minutes ago, snowfan said:

JC, Randy. Get a timer lol. 

lol.  That’s some internet fail. Mine is still cooking. Beer brined that bitch. 

[winter_warlock]

12 minutes ago, bncho said:

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone except the folks skipping dinner because the 18z runs are basically their dinner.

Hopefully your relatives understand why you keep “checking the oven” with a phone in your hand.

I'm eating thanksgiving dinner, the 18z runs will be dessert... Hopefully 

[stormtracker]

21 minutes ago, bncho said:

randy's got his euro run. we just wait for him to notice

Yes and no.  Kinda more into it now tho because things seem to be south/colder

20 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'd rather the Euro be weak at this point instead of a bomb it advertised all last year to no avail. 

Yup

[NorthArlington101]

Got the median for the AIFS thru 138 - pretty impressive. Not caving to the parent. Still waiting for the mean. 

 

[NorthArlington101]

Lol - maybe the AIFS output is broken 

[mitchnick]

32 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

My current location is in the light blue my new home will be in the 6.8" area...sadly I don't move until December 18th

Being chased out of town again are you?   

[WxUSAF]

^is this like tropical tidbits accumulating NAM freezing rain at 10:1 ratios??

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

^is this like tropical tidbits accumulating NAM freezing rain at 10:1 ratios??

If it is broken, that would be why imo. @Jidid you say you can see the individual AIFS members? Or just in WxBell 

[mitchnick]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

^is this like tropical tidbits accumulating NAM freezing rain at 10:1 ratios??

Shut up and embrace the technology!

[Eskimo Joe]

Euro has been trending towards a more neutral, slightly negative AO/NAO after Dec 5th. Good to see.

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Lol - maybe the AIFS output is broken 

Oh yea. Gimme.

[WEATHER53]

25 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

lol.  That’s some internet fail. Mine is still cooking. Beer brined that bitch. 

Keith is concerned about events thru 12/6

Hapoy Thanksgiving my man!

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Shut up and embrace the technology!

If I get 4-5” on Tuesday, I will bow to my AI overlords

[bncho]

EPS likes Dec 5-6 a lot more than Dec 2-3.

[Ji]

51 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

My current location is in the light blue my new home will be in the 6.8" area...sadly I don't move until December 18th

you move alot?

[WEATHER53]

8 minutes ago, bncho said:

EPS likes Dec 5-6 a lot more than Dec 2-3.

Me too 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, WEATHER53 said:

Me too 

Me too!!