TSSN+ Posted November 27, 2025 Share Posted November 27, 2025 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It was just a poor model living off an old reputation it lost multiple "upgrades" ago. I mean I like where it’s at. Just juice that up a bit and that’s a really good run. As is I’ll still take 2-3” anyway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 27, 2025 Share Posted November 27, 2025 AIFS and ECWMF are in closer proxy to each other wrt handling the 5H pattern. A little flatter and confluence better for here, however the HP to the north isn't as pronounced compared to GFS/CMC which would play a role into the antecedent airmass domain the storm would attack. Guess is the GFS/CMC are too amped at the moment and will likely shift closer to the AIFS/ECENS combo. This has climo, fall line type event written all over it. Early in the season for the lowlands. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted November 27, 2025 Share Posted November 27, 2025 Happy Thanksgiving to everyone except the folks skipping dinner because the 18z runs are basically their dinner. Hopefully your relatives understand why you keep “checking the oven” with a phone in your hand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 27, 2025 Share Posted November 27, 2025 52 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Ukmet My current location is in the light blue my new home will be in the 6.8" area...sadly I don't move until December 18th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 27, 2025 Share Posted November 27, 2025 I think there's some interesting stuff going on up at the H5 levels that is leading to the surface differences between the Euro and GFS. If we look into the Euro's H5 it has a northern piece of energy which destructively interferes with the developing coastal as it seems to string it out. Meanwhile, the GFS firstly deemphasizes this piece of energy and secondly absorbs what's left of it into the system which obviously creates a more amplified storm. At this point who knows which ones is correct but I think is something to watch for 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simbasad2 Posted November 27, 2025 Share Posted November 27, 2025 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It was just a poor model living off an old reputation it lost multiple "upgrades" ago. The Euro nailed like every storm last year, no? Other than 2/20 of course but nobody got that one right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted November 27, 2025 Share Posted November 27, 2025 Just now, simbasad2 said: The Euro nailed like every storm last year, no? Other than 2/20 of course but nobody got that one right the one time we needed to nail a storm it didn't. but that's the euro for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted November 27, 2025 Share Posted November 27, 2025 2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: My current location is in the light blue my new home will be in the 6.8" area...sadly I don't move until December 18th If this verifies for the 3rd then statistically there'll be more to come throughout the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 27, 2025 Share Posted November 27, 2025 1 minute ago, simbasad2 said: The Euro nailed like every storm last year, no? Other than 2/20 of course but nobody got that one right No it struggled with the one big storm we did have it was showing it as 1-3” up to like 24hrs before the event and then we got 7”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 27, 2025 Share Posted November 27, 2025 12 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I'd rather the Euro be weak at this point instead of a bomb it advertised all last year to no avail. Euro like solution “feels” right to me based on seasonal trends 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 27, 2025 Share Posted November 27, 2025 Just now, WxUSAF said: Euro like solution “feels” right to me based on seasonal trends You just said my quiet thought out loud. The 12z gfs took a step closer to euro compared to 0z, so we’ll see if this is the start of a trend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 27, 2025 Share Posted November 27, 2025 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro like solution “feels” right to me based on seasonal trends Euro is monthly climo snowfall for all of the folks north and west of I-95. Sign me up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simbasad2 Posted November 27, 2025 Share Posted November 27, 2025 Just now, TSSN+ said: No it struggled with the one big storm we did have it was showing it as 1-3” up to like 24hrs before the event and then we got 7”. Oh yeah I know which one you're talking about, 1/19. It actually did pretty well in the medium range compared to other guidance which had the storm like 100 miles off the coast. Though I do agree it did pretty bad in the short range like you said, but it's not like any other global model did much better for that storm though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 27, 2025 Share Posted November 27, 2025 35 minutes ago, snowfan said: JC, Randy. Get a timer lol. lol. That’s some internet fail. Mine is still cooking. Beer brined that bitch. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 27, 2025 Share Posted November 27, 2025 12 minutes ago, bncho said: Happy Thanksgiving to everyone except the folks skipping dinner because the 18z runs are basically their dinner. Hopefully your relatives understand why you keep “checking the oven” with a phone in your hand. I'm eating thanksgiving dinner, the 18z runs will be dessert... Hopefully 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 27, 2025 Share Posted November 27, 2025 21 minutes ago, bncho said: randy's got his euro run. we just wait for him to notice Yes and no. Kinda more into it now tho because things seem to be south/colder 20 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I'd rather the Euro be weak at this point instead of a bomb it advertised all last year to no avail. Yup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 27, 2025 Share Posted November 27, 2025 Got the median for the AIFS thru 138 - pretty impressive. Not caving to the parent. Still waiting for the mean. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 27, 2025 Share Posted November 27, 2025 Lol - maybe the AIFS output is broken 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 27, 2025 Share Posted November 27, 2025 32 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: My current location is in the light blue my new home will be in the 6.8" area...sadly I don't move until December 18th Being chased out of town again are you? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 27, 2025 Share Posted November 27, 2025 ^is this like tropical tidbits accumulating NAM freezing rain at 10:1 ratios?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 27, 2025 Share Posted November 27, 2025 Just now, WxUSAF said: ^is this like tropical tidbits accumulating NAM freezing rain at 10:1 ratios?? If it is broken, that would be why imo. @Jidid you say you can see the individual AIFS members? Or just in WxBell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 27, 2025 Share Posted November 27, 2025 Just now, WxUSAF said: ^is this like tropical tidbits accumulating NAM freezing rain at 10:1 ratios?? Shut up and embrace the technology! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 27, 2025 Share Posted November 27, 2025 Euro has been trending towards a more neutral, slightly negative AO/NAO after Dec 5th. Good to see. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 27, 2025 Share Posted November 27, 2025 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Lol - maybe the AIFS output is broken Oh yea. Gimme. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 27, 2025 Share Posted November 27, 2025 25 minutes ago, stormtracker said: lol. That’s some internet fail. Mine is still cooking. Beer brined that bitch. Keith is concerned about events thru 12/6 Hapoy Thanksgiving my man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 27, 2025 Share Posted November 27, 2025 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Shut up and embrace the technology! If I get 4-5” on Tuesday, I will bow to my AI overlords 6 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted November 27, 2025 Share Posted November 27, 2025 EPS likes Dec 5-6 a lot more than Dec 2-3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 27, 2025 Share Posted November 27, 2025 51 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: My current location is in the light blue my new home will be in the 6.8" area...sadly I don't move until December 18th you move alot? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 27, 2025 Share Posted November 27, 2025 8 minutes ago, bncho said: EPS likes Dec 5-6 a lot more than Dec 2-3. Me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 27, 2025 Share Posted November 27, 2025 Just now, WEATHER53 said: Me too Me too!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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