December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[MillvilleWx]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

It's early and cold air is iffy down here, but the midwest storms today and Nov 30 will pay a role in laying down snow cover and reducing modification of cold air setting us up for the threat next week.

Agreed! Will be interesting to see the trends on guidance through the weekend. I'll be keeping tabs on AI model outputs as well. Want to see some consistency on handling of the wave ejection at this lead and as we get closer to any event potential. Still a ways to go, but nice to see something worthwhile to kick off the season around these parts 

[TSSN+]

Welp may as well start this crap… 12z is the biggest run since 6z… 

[H2O]

I am not happy that the chances of me getting a tiny bit of snow will hinge on if the corn stalks in Iowa are too warm.  

[wxmvpete]

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

I'll say this....This is actually a pretty classic way for this area to get on the board for the season. Waving timing and thermal gradient positioning will be the keys unless something else sneaks up to affect the pattern. Not too complicated, but still a tight rope walk in a way. Inside 7 days. We're keeping an eye on it here at the National Center. 

You and I are both on the winter desks this weekend when this potential storm is inside 72 hours.  We'll see how this trends over the next couple days!

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, wxmvpete said:

You and I are both on the winter desks this weekend when this potential storm is inside 72 hours.  We'll see how this trends over the next couple days!

Good luck. We're all praying you two have the mojo this winter. 

[H2O]

7 minutes ago, wxmvpete said:

You and I are both on the winter desks this weekend when this potential storm is inside 72 hours.  We'll see how this trends over the next couple days!

Please let us know if the cold air is gonna be like the LA Rams defense and strong or the Commanders defense that lets Barkley(warm air) get 200 yds

[clskinsfan]

Pretty classic HP position on both models for CAD at least. Maybe an early season thumper to slop?

[Heisy]

Icon might hop on board here



.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Icon might hop on board here



.

You just beat me! I saw the same thing. Decent cold too.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2025112612&fh=120

[winter_warlock]

Icon at 120. Big slug of moisture primed in the gulf!!

 

 

[NorthArlington101]

7 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Icon might hop on board here



.

It’s a light hit of snow before mostly ZR, but nice to have it in the ballpark of a better outcome. 

[clskinsfan]

That cold over Canada on the ICON is legit. Lack of sleep is going to be an issue over the next few days.

[ravensrule]

37 minutes ago, wxmvpete said:

You and I are both on the winter desks this weekend when this potential storm is inside 72 hours.  We'll see how this trends over the next couple days!

Bring it home and we will name this storm after you. 

[frd]

Interesting,  past times when we had a warming. 

[TSSN+]

Icon shows rain on precip depiction up to PA but has the 32 line down across DC. Decent looking track I’d take 

[aldie 22]

On 11/23/2025 at 5:17 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea we're in real trouble. Winter is essentially on life support at this point. 

Excellent point...tell me more please

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Icon shows rain on precip depiction up to PA but has the 32 line down across DC. Decent looking track I’d take 

 Looks good for being 7 to 8 days out!

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

 Looks good for being 7 to 8 days out!

Actually down to 5.5–6 now. Starts Monday night to Tuesday morning. 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Actually down to 5.5–6 now. Starts Monday night to Tuesday morning. 

Wow  that creeped up quick. But I still wouldn't worry about thermal profiles till we're withing 72 hours especially with the ICON

[JenkinsJinkies]

11 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Icon shows rain on precip depiction up to PA but has the 32 line down across DC. Decent looking track I’d take 

Freezing rain

[Eskimo Joe]

11 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Excellent point...tell me more please

We still have a week to find our fail point. Could be any of the following:

1.) High slides offshore and we nibble away at CAD with antecedent southeast winds.

2.) Last minute de-amplification trend.

3.) Primary drives into Pittsburgh and it's just cold rain.

[mitchnick]

Icon is close enough for this range.

[NorthArlington101]

GFS looks like it’ll probably hold to me - don’t quote me if I’m wrong in a few minutes. 

[SnowenOutThere]

17 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Icon shows rain on precip depiction up to PA but has the 32 line down across DC. Decent looking track I’d take 

Yeah I think it just doesn’t show freezing rain for some reason 

[mitchnick]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS looks like it’ll probably hold to me - don’t quote me if I’m wrong in a few minutes. 

I just had to do it!

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS looks like it’ll probably hold to me - don’t quote me if I’m wrong in a few minutes. 

Looks a tad bit deamped with maybe a bit more confluence which honestly may give us more breathing room 

[clskinsfan]

GFS is actually a lot colder at the surface than 6Z. Actually it is colder at all levels. 

[Eskimo Joe]

12z GFS has a much better CAD signature compared to its 00z/06z iterations.

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Despite the colder look initially starting mixy at 138… I’d still expect a flip 

Vort not quite as consolidated. Might stay icier. Shark privileges revoked 

[Eskimo Joe]

My benchmark is 1" - 3" that doesn't get washed away. Would get us to December climo.