December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[MillvilleWx]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

It's early and cold air is iffy down here, but the midwest storms today and Nov 30 will pay a role in laying down snow cover and reducing modification of cold air setting us up for the threat next week.

Agreed! Will be interesting to see the trends on guidance through the weekend. I'll be keeping tabs on AI model outputs as well. Want to see some consistency on handling of the wave ejection at this lead and as we get closer to any event potential. Still a ways to go, but nice to see something worthwhile to kick off the season around these parts 

[TSSN+]

Welp may as well start this crap… 12z is the biggest run since 6z… 

[H2O]

I am not happy that the chances of me getting a tiny bit of snow will hinge on if the corn stalks in Iowa are too warm.  

[wxmvpete]

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

I'll say this....This is actually a pretty classic way for this area to get on the board for the season. Waving timing and thermal gradient positioning will be the keys unless something else sneaks up to affect the pattern. Not too complicated, but still a tight rope walk in a way. Inside 7 days. We're keeping an eye on it here at the National Center. 

You and I are both on the winter desks this weekend when this potential storm is inside 72 hours.  We'll see how this trends over the next couple days!