December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Cabby]

peek-a-boo.... 

[SnowenOutThere]

26 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Canadian is out and it's an ice storm... feel like the Canadian always goes ice. Temps are genuinely below freezing DC metro and east almost the whole event but it's close

Would start right before daylight with temps in the upper 20s so pretty legit 

[frd]

Oh my, the SER is taking a vacation. 

Ensembles playing catch up as well.   

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, frd said:

Oh my, the SER is taking a vacation. 

Ensembles playing catch up as well.   

 

 

Now that would make me eat my words. Huge ridge out west with some increasing heights in the NAO domain.

[NorthArlington101]

torch 

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

[WEATHER53]

17 hours ago, mitchnick said:

The weeklies change every day! In 3 days they will be different and it will be a new concern. The fact is, the modeling just can't do what we want and hope for it to do. As I get older, it's clear that long range modeling must be viewed with an eye on seasonal trends, both in the actual weather and the model errors/biases. IOW, how have the models been doing with medium and long range forecasts of late and what is the general tenor of the weather. This year, modeling has general been too warm at longer ranges and it frankly hasn't been a toaster oven for the past few months. All this considered, advertised medium/long range warmups should be viewed skeptically until they start to prevail. Until then, don't worry about it at all.

And on a related note, it maybe fine to dissect every medium and long range model run because it's what we do. But until the mr/lr modeling can prove they are worth anything by being accurate and do so with day-to-day consistency, they cause more useless angst than they're worth imho and making forecasts off them with any certainty as I see being made are folly.

Enjoy the cold Thanksgiving holiday weekend (another sign of the coming winter flavor) and forget about December's weather until December!

Rant over.

Amen and I have been getting crucified for years for saying this.  It’s good to have a more popular poster finally get on board

Lets go over the needed changes.

Nothing beyond 5 days out.

Drop the microscope approach and do a broader naked eye or binoculars approach 

stop trying to find out why the last forecast needs changing 

ingest more AI analog historical outcomes 

accept the FACT that 50 different outcomes is Not a forecast nor prediction but rather a needless cover all bases conglomeration 

There are mire  but until and unless the consumers of models stop paying for and extolling the virtue of failing models then nothing will change 

 

 

[WEATHER53]

16 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Gotta love Gfs temp anomalies after the snow and sleet fest.

So DCA would be 20 at 1 am 

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Dec 5, 2005, Dec 5, 2009 and Dec 8, 2013 were winners for many. December used to be a light snow month.

3/4 days ago I responded to Ji that I was excited about 12/4-5.  That comes from my memory and records of analog past events  

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

3/4 days ago I responded to Ji that I was excited about 12/4-5.  That comes from my memory and records of analog past events  

Ray's Winter Storm Archive, while focused primarily on New Jersey, is an excellent resource for winter storms during the 1993 - 2013 time frame.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Oh my, the SER is taking a vacation. 

Ensembles playing catch up as well.   

Wow, Pacific pattern is completely different. 

[WEATHER53]

23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Ray's Winter Storm Archive, while focused primarily on New Jersey, is an excellent resource for winter storms during the 1993 - 2013 time frame.

Yes his is stellar. My records started in 1966 and really got going 1980-present .  What happened from April into Setptember and what’s been happening last 15 or so days, each with a weighted average.  
When I find , for example, that May and June with near historically wet then July with very high heat indexes then August dry and normal temps  and Nov 1-15 damp dreary snd chilly-what followed all that? When I can find  4 out of 5 matches or 7 out of 10 then I reveal my thoughts 

I like 12/4-5 

[SnowenOutThere]

Looks like 18z GFS while giving us a bit of ice with the system before the 3rd might shear out the 3rd system 

[NorthArlington101]

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Looks like 18z GFS while giving us a bit of ice with the system before the 3rd might shear out the 3rd system 

It’s a hit - least a modest one 

[bncho]

18z GFS is actually pretty nice. Nov 30 flurries + ice and then 1-3", even more points south of DC

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

18z GFS is actually pretty nice. Nov 30 flurries + ice and then 1-3", even more points south of DC

It continues with the same idea. All that matters on an op run at this range.

[SnowenOutThere]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s a hit - least a modest one 

Would get me out of my chem exam the 3rd so I’m happy with it 

[2015Wrx]

Wow, Pacific pattern is completely different. 

Can you or someone explain/show what we should look for in the Pacific as opposed to what we do not want? I enjoy reading and learning from you all in here.


.

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Would get me out of my chem exam the 3rd so I’m happy with it 

Think you are gonna find out colleges don’t cancel easy - UVA had just a half day off during finals after Dec. 2018!

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Think you are gonna find out colleges don’t cancel easy - UVA had just a half day off during finals after Dec. 2018!

How much did uva get for that storm? Besides it’s not finals yet so who knows.