December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Ginx snewx]

90% of my annual snow occurs after Dec 21st. The urge down here to rush snow is undoubtedly understandable with all the cold. I feel for those that are emotionally invested.

[weatherwiz]

The GFS/Euro for the second half of the week across the country are not even on the same planet lol. Not sure if its because the GFS has some cut off energy held in the deep South but it's absolutely insane how different they are. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

40 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Come to the GTG Lukey. I know the pope wont.

Pope is probably a tiny little man.he would never show up.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is funny. Below zero windchills and bare ground for Christmas.

Solid consensus for Christmas day

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

90% of my annual snow occurs after Dec 21st. The urge down here to rush snow is undoubtedly understandable with all the cold. I feel for those that are emotionally invested.

Yea. It sucks wasting cold in Dec but long ways to go. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Solid consensus for Christmas day

At least this GIF is festive  

Looks like the color changing Christmas Lights people hang outside 

[amarshall]

27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Patriots snow game?

I'm going, haven't been interested in going to a game for many years. 

[Spanks45]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Solid consensus for Christmas day

If there isn't any snow on the ground, please let the GFS have a clue.... 

[WinterWolf]

Pope is absolutely nuts…that guy cannot be a meteorologist…no way. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, amarshall said:

I'm going, haven't been interested in going to a game for many years. 

That’s gonna be a great game.

[Ginx snewx]

Monday is going to be deep deep winter with snow otg and wind chills below zero

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Monday is going to be deep deep winter with snow otg and wind chills below zero

Well hopefully snow otg. Might be a lot of sublimating half inch deals too.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

If there isn't any snow on the ground, please let the GFS have a clue.... 

If it makes you feel any better Euro AI sides with the gfs.

I’m always intrigued my Christmas day weather, but we’re still a good 5-7 days away from having a clue.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s gonna be a great game.

Fantasy playoff semifinals for me. I have to choose between Maye (snow/Buf) and Lamar (injury). I feel like Vrabel would be ground and pound with snow.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Fantasy playoff semifinals for me. I have to choose between Maye (snow/Buf) and Lamar (injury). I feel like Vrabel would be ground and pound with snow.

I'm sure there will be a passing game for just snow showers 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

I mean anyone who understands NE weather in winter knows that setup is conducive to CAD . With Eastern Canada in an icebox and NNE buried in snow odds favor a colder scenario by Christmas. Aspeta santus una Padre Santus.

Yea, just because on a larger scale the pattern is mild doesn't necessarily mean it translates to ubiquitous warmth at the surface....especially near the winter solstice.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Fantasy playoff semifinals for me. I have to choose between Maye (snow/Buf) and Lamar (injury). I feel like Vrabel would be ground and pound with snow.

I think field will be ok by 1. They’re gonna try and throw I bet. 

[dendrite]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, just because on a larger scale the pattern is mild doesn't necessarily means it translates to ubiquitous warmth at the surface....especially near the winter solstice.

Sure, but these “ice storm” ideas with +10C 850s are pretty farfetched too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dendrite said:

Sure, but these “ice storm” ideas with +10C 850s are pretty farfetched too.

I never said that  I know some have...haven't looked too much yet.

[jbenedet]

It’s beginning to look at lot like torchmas…everywhere you gooooo

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Fantasy playoff semifinals for me. I have to choose between Maye (snow/Buf) and Lamar (injury). I feel like Vrabel would be ground and pound with snow.

Snow games, as long as the wind is manageable, are actually favorable for passing games. But, I think Lamar goes off this week. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

He must have not gotten the altar boy he was eyeing…

[CoastalWx]

Did Christmas move up a week? Mary have to have an emergency C-section?

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Snow games, as long as the wind is manageable, are actually favorable for passing games. But, I think Lamar goes off this week. 

Agree (minus Mac Jones getting 3 pass attempts in Buffalo). Brady used to light teams up. I’m just not sure how much experience Drake has throwing in those conditions and how pass happy Vrabel would want to be…but I’m sure Josh would love to go pass heavy with Stef and Pop running a bunch of quick cut routes from the slot.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

It’s beginning to look at lot like torchmas…everywhere you gooooo

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Agree (minus Mac Jones getting 3 pass attempts in Buffalo). Brady used to light teams up. I’m just not sure how much experience Drake has throwing in those conditions and how pass happy Vrabel would want to be…but I’m sure Josh would love to go pass heavy with Stef and Pop running a bunch of quick cut routes from the slot.

I am playing Maye because well he the only QB I have, or need, but if I could play Lamar over him I think I would. Bengals defense sucks so this should be a shootout. If Anything, he needs a big bounceback game. 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 hours ago, weathafella said:

lol…skynet with the Christmas Eve sizable snowstorm.

The  0z GFS was similar in principle.  From this range ...of course, neither has much substantive value.  Have to wait it out on details and dailies.  However, there is a new character that's shown up to the plot.  

The EPS made a move overnight that may offer nostalgia's salvation for the the Holiday week.  It's very new, so we'll have to see if this continues.   It's the North Atlantic Oscillation. The thing is, the actual index numbers from the GEPs and GEFs do show a slight correction down .. hmm. The EPS was a bit more representative, though. 

It's very all or nothing in that last 10 days of the month.  If we end up on the N side of the ambient polar boundary, than record warm still - likely - happens in the conus, it just won't make it in here...where we will be at risk for something like a 00z GEFs and/or Skynet type of stalled boundary with mixy shit running along.   So big contrasts along the boundary... A west-limb -NAO expression would limit warmth expansion over the eastern continent no farther than 40N.  

Again, it's a fledgling signal... But, as we had that -NAO about 6 weeks ago, when it decayed ... we relayed into the -EPO mode.  The NAO's been in hiatus since.  The EPO now failing to refit ( while the -WPO continues to fester ..different story - ), and with the PNA going negative, the longer term correlation on -PNA is actually the           -NAO.  So there's climate-wise support for NAO to reassert.  These index correlations are not 1::1 of course; they can verify in an aberrant/unexpected state.    

Something to keep an eye on if your the winter/Holiday symbolism types. It's at least based on a real observation from the tools themselves.  Yesterday at this time, this observation could not be made;  I  posted direly, accordingly... but, sometimes, that's all that is needed LOL

[Ginx snewx]

Take the under on the Popes torch mas

[weatherwiz]

Could get some snow showers Monday night, maybe even squalls which could drop a quick coating to an inch 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Could get some snow showers Monday night, maybe even squalls which could drop a quick coating to an inch 

Hold me....I yearn for safety-