December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yup...but the 50+/50+ is what absolutely eviscerates it in short order.

The magic dewpoint number is really in the high 30s. Beyond a wetbulb of about 37-38F, the pack melting really takes off. That’s why sometimes you can get a 34F rainstorm on a decent pack and basically see almost no melting. But do it at 40F and it’s a different ballgame. The ice crystal structure changes faster. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Likely already discussed but I didn't really love the 6z Euro Op. But good to hear the AI looked better. Let's start getting some better improvements across the board at 12z. 

12/23 might be tough in SE areas. Southerly or southwesterly flow in the low levels is never good there. The key though will be how cold we start. Could start off cold enough that it doesn’t matter as much. 

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

12/23 might be tough in SE areas. Southerly or southwesterly flow in the low levels is never good there. The key though will be how cold we start. Could start off cold enough that it doesn’t matter as much. 

Ya that one is tenuous down here without some shifts southward. Something like the 6z ICON has, where it transfers to a secondary east of the Cape, but futher south and sooner would be desirable. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

8 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Dude .. you are broken. You've now joined the ranks of Torch Tiger and Qshmegma 

Was I wrong? A clipper going near or north of us with a marginal airmass isn’t a recipe for snow. Did you even look? I’m not sure why so many people on this forum are adverse to facts and truths.

[Pennfisherman]

51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ll just say this. I love winter more than anything. This pains me. However, I am getting absolute joy out of watching these clown social media Mets absolutely eat shit with all their “wild times” calls and all the rubbing out to the stratosphere. There is no worse cancer to the field than these clowns.

This might be impossible but... are there any good social media Mets to follow? Specifically on twitter.

[SouthCoastMA]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Was I wrong? A clipper going near or north of us with a marginal airmass isn’t a recipe for snow. Did you even look? I’m not sure why so many people on this forum are adverse to facts and truths.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Was I wrong? A clipper going near or north of us with a marginal airmass isn’t a recipe for snow. Did you even look? I’m not sure why so many people on this forum are adverse to facts and truths.

It’s not about if you were wrong on that point…it’s the constant and incessant negativity CONSTANTLY.  
 

We’ve had some decent runs, on different models…and you are nowhere to be found. But as soon as something remotely negative comes up…you’re Usain Bolt to jump on it.   But whatever. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s not about if you were wrong on that point…it’s the constant and incessant negativity CONSTANTLY.  
 

We’ve had some decent runs, on different models…and you are nowhere to be found. But as soon as something remotely negative comes up…you’re Usain Bolt to jump on it.   But whatever. 

What’s there to be positive about? The pattern looks like dog shit, especially south of the pike. I don’t like to pin my snow on a hope and prayer. We need to get very lucky, and that’s a bad spot to be.

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

The ear turn gets me every time.

“Is that TauntonBlizz’s keyboard I hear again?”

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Pennfisherman said:

This might be impossible but... are there any good social media Mets to follow? Specifically on twitter.

I honestly don’t know, I don’t really follow those people. Your best bet is to follow the people that are already established. For instance, those who might be on TV, or those who post here.

[512high]

Jeez, up to 51/ fog

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, 512high said:

Jeez, up to 51/ fog

54/51 here. one little sad pile in the backyard remaining

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Merry Christmas!

Happy Hanukkah!  

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Ya that one is tenuous down here without some shifts southward. Something like the 6z ICON has, where it transfers to a secondary east of the Cape, but futher south and sooner would be desirable. 

6z euro was plain paltry.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s not about if you were wrong on that point…it’s the constant and incessant negativity CONSTANTLY.  
 

We’ve had some decent runs, on different models…and you are nowhere to be found. But as soon as something remotely negative comes up…you’re Usain Bolt to jump on it.   But whatever. 

Well, there was reason to doubt that cold guidance for latter December....not to mention we have become conditioned to expect the less appealing outcomes over the course of the past 7 years.

[UnitedWx]

17 minutes ago, Pennfisherman said:

This might be impossible but... are there any good social media Mets to follow? Specifically on twitter.

On twitter, near zero chance. The place is all garbage now. Try YouTube. There are a couple decent guys amongst many, many weenies. It's really easy to pick them judge them in the first couple minutes if you have some weather knowledge

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, there was reason to doubt that cold guidance for latter December....not to mention we have become conditioned to expect the less appealing outcomes over the course of the past 7 years.

Rolling with the worst case scenario for snow has been solid forecasting for some time now. Damn.

[ORH_wxman]

Twitter is pretty useless for weather. I was thinking about posting on there this winter but not sure I’m going to. Lots of hype. You’ll get that anywhere on social media but it’s especially pervasive where people scroll quickly and you want clicks. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

Rolling with the worst case scenario for snow has been solid forecasting for some time now. Damn.

I get the argument against persistence forecasting, but independent of that, I have explained in great detail why I expected December to warm up.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Twitter is pretty useless for weather. I was thinking about posting on there this winter but not sure I’m going to. Lots of hype. You’ll get that anywhere on social media but it’s especially pervasive where people scroll quickly and you want clicks. 

You should, though...it needs it.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You should, though...it needs it.

I used to but unless you’re always cold and snow nobody pays attention. Look at all the crap Fisher gets lol.

[UnitedWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Twitter is pretty useless for weather. I was thinking about posting on there this winter but not sure I’m going to. Lots of hype. You’ll get that anywhere on social media but it’s especially pervasive where people scroll quickly and you want clicks. 

Don't waste your time. With YouTube at least they aren't all bad, still lots to weed out but it IS easier to find some at least decent individuals. Works for Ryan...

[dendrite]

I thought about doing a youtube channel with a mash of weather, plants, and chickens, but then I remembered I generally don’t like people.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I used to but unless you’re always cold and snow nobody pays attention. Look at all the crap Fisher gets lol.

I have an extremely meager following....don't get me wrong, I'm sure some it is because of how outdated my blogger medium is, as pope has so eloquently and gracefully pointed out on several occasions....but I think it's also because I pride myself on objectivity. I completely ignore threats that some of these dopes use to generate thousands of clicks.

I think a lot of my stuff isn't very digestible for the laymen, as well..especially my outlooks. They are long and academic, which is a turn off today...society doesn't want to think critically, or focus for protracted periods of time. They want a pretty picture that strokes their primal weather schlong in short order.

[dryslot]

Models are all over the place for the next 10 days or so, Nothing looks immanent. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think @512high Phil is the only person that religiously follows my content  I'm okay with it....I do it for myself, for the most part.....to keep learning and maintain my writing skills.

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I thought about doing a youtube channel with a mash of weather, plants, and chickens, but then I remembered I generally don’t like people.

I believe it, You didn't even go help your neighbors a week or so ago.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I believe it, You didn't even go help your neighbors a week or so ago.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Man 6z euro AI saves winter. 

Details?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Details?

It’s just better all around. Better for the 23rd and offers chances after that. Overall colder and snowier look.