December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am incredibly pleased with how the season is progressing relative to my expectation....may end up with less snow than I suspected through December (of course), but pretty damn good overall.

You had cold to VA and more snow than Methuen?

[Torch Tiger]

usually my threads bring good juju. of course nne has been crushing it, but that's not surprising.  Just hope southern sne sees a 1-2" at least

[Torch Tiger]

maybe i'm off, but at a shot at warning totals on s coast/cape, somewhere?  lol  just looking over 12-18z. 

yeah sst's play a part so the immediate coast is toast 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

maybe i'm off, but at a shot at warning totals on s coast/cape, somewhere?  lol  just looking over 12-18z. 

yeah sst's play a part so the immediate coast is toast 

I’d say 10-25% chance someone pulls a 6.. most likely right now in central jersey, Trenton NJ to right over our favorite police officers backyard looks like the sweet spot 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

ICON still nothing outside of some snow showers.

We are going to need a miracle tomorrow to get anything more than a dusting to an inch 

[qg_omega]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am incredibly pleased with how the season is progressing relative to my expectation....may end up with less snow than I suspected through December (of course), but pretty damn good overall.

You seem to care more about verifying your seasonal forecast than anything else which is a bit strange unless you have paying customers and this is your business?

[UnitedWx]

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

You seem to care more about verifying your seasonal forecast than anything else which is a bit strange unless you have paying customers and this is your business?

Or personal challenge, education, fun etc.....

[powderfreak]

It's not accumulating very fast, but there's some steady gusty small flake (arctic sand) falling.  It covers things up quickly but doesn't stack very well.

Cold shallow moisture continues to stream into the region on NW flow.  Nocturnal inversion is trying to squeeze out all remaining moisture from an arctic airmass.

[mreaves]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

It's not accumulating very fast, but there's some gusty small flake (arctic sand) falling.  It covers things up quickly but doesn't stack very well.

Cold shallow moisture continues to stream into the region on NW flow.  Nocturnal inversion is trying to squeeze out all remaining moisture from an arctic airmass.

It even reached here. About an inch. Not as much as you but it all adds up. 

[WinterWolf]

18 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

ICON still nothing outside of some snow showers.

We are going to need a miracle tomorrow to get anything more than a dusting to an inch 

So, you think cuz the icon shows nothing, then that’s the final forecast?  Hard to figure you out? 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs looks a tad worse through 42. I wouldn’t expect much help from that model 

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah not very impressed by GFS. Getting a bit bleak this far north. South coast to the cape is def still in the game though. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah not very impressed by GFS. Getting a bit bleak this far north. South coast to the cape is def still in the game though. 

The gfs doesn’t have much of anything, anywhere.

Im not completely sold this ends up anything more than flurries off the cape. Going to need to see something by 12z tomorrow to believe we are getting more than just flakes in the air here 

[Torch Tiger]

i'm kinda optimistic for some weenie spots on cape cod.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Nice hit for the cape on the CMC. Cutback everywhere else though, definite slide SE

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The gfs doesn’t have much of anything, anywhere.

Im not completely sold this ends up anything more than flurries off the cape. Going to need to see something by 12z tomorrow to believe we are getting more than just flakes in the air here 

Yep, here comes Lucy. 

[ORH_wxman]

The positive tilt of the trough and having it consistently pressing southeast at the same time is giving me Bruce Willis storm vibes.
 

Where the low levels just try to suck the moisture out of the air even if things look decent at H6-7 

[CoastalWx]

See you when a threat actually comes. This is toast. 

[Torch Tiger]

150'+ cape cod special.  tbh

[Torch Tiger]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

See you when a threat actually comes. This is toast. 

Take it easy! 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep, here comes Lucy. 

Yeah, I mean, it was such a meager “event” to begin with, I don’t think anyone is losing a ton of sleep over it. I would have been thrilled with 3-4” but tonight’s runs are showcasing that unless you are on the cape, Good luck with accumulating snow

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The positive tilt of the trough and having it consistently pressing southeast at the same time is giving me Bruce Willis storm vibes.
 

Where the low levels just try to suck the moisture out of the air even if things look decent at H6-7 

Once again, we added another negative variable over the last 24+ hours. Not only is it still not turning the corner, it’s kind of lost its potency so even on some of those earlier runs without much coastal involvement we were getting a couple inches.

Now, over the last several cycles, that has kind of disappeared 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Once again, we added another negative variable over the last 24+ hours. Not only is it still not turning the corner, it’s kind of lost its potency so even on some of those earlier runs without much coastal involvement we were getting a couple inches.

Now, over the last several cycles, that has kind of disappeared 

We really need a more potent vort at this point. Otherwise it feels like a south coast event where they scrape a couple inches and the dry air in tje low levels just sucks the snow out of the sky up north. A lot of Virga probably. 

[weathafella]

Gfs AI looks ok for a light accumulating event.

[WinterWolf]

Gotta see what the Euro puts out…if that’s worse, we shut it down…and move on. 

[weathafella]

33 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Nice hit for the cape on the CMC. Cutback everywhere else though, definite slide SE

I thought cmc was 2-4 with decent stats look.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Ukie with a strong shift SE.

had advisory snow into NH and now it looks like no accumulating snow north of Boston verbatim 

[weathafella]

So gfs AI looks ok for a light fairy widespread event.  CMC looks ok.   

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

So gfs AI looks ok for a light fairy widespread event.  CMC looks ok.   

Listening to TBlizz everything is gone. 

[SnowGoose69]

I find it funny all top 3 CIPS analogs (12/5/92, 12/8/06 12/13/86) are sort of close at 500, every one was a nothing event with no snow anywhere from what I can tell, 12/5/92 was an epic bust, we had WSWs out down here and saw nothing, I think they actually dropped them late afternoon on 12/5 after putting them out at 4-5pm on 12/4.