December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Sled]

Oh my bad. All 52!

[wxsniss]

29 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It was a nice snow burst whitening the ground earlier but now a memory.

Always a thrill to see opening best rates of the season, though only for about 3 minutes… 

We’ll have our chances… this alone looks like it should bring much better results at surface than it actually has, and can tweak significantly better with time:

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Always a thrill to see opening best rates of the season, though only for about 3 minutes… 

We’ll have our chances… this alone looks like it should bring much better results at surface than it actually has, and can tweak significantly better with time:

Pretty Nice ridge placement there out west. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Always a thrill to see opening best rates of the season, though only for about 3 minutes… 

We’ll have our chances… this alone looks like it should bring much better results at surface than it actually has, and can tweak significantly better with time:

Heights still a bit compreassed there....probably why is struggles to coalesce. 

[Fozz]

37 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Always a thrill to see opening best rates of the season, though only for about 3 minutes… 

We’ll have our chances… this alone looks like it should bring much better results at surface than it actually has, and can tweak significantly better with time:

If I didn’t know any better I’d be expecting a regionwide 8-12” out of this.

[CT Valley Snowman]

18Z GFS coming in weak and south for the 12th.  

[Baroclinic Zone]

This bowling ball looks intriguing.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

This bowling ball looks intriguing.

That’s a big focus there. Gfs looking like Euro more now with that second disturbance. 

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

This bowling ball looks intriguing.

yeah, talk about dynamic. you have an actual ridge in the west, too. stout

[ORH_wxman]

Might be a nuke this run. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Powder keg setup there.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Nijad me

[WinterWolf]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

That’s a big focus there. Gfs looking like Euro more now with that second disturbance. 

 

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Might be a nuke this run. 

Didn’t somebody just say it was weak?  

[CoastalWx]

We blizzard 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

 

Didn’t somebody just say it was weak?  

Focused on wrong s/w. There are multiple s/w in the flow, it’s a matter of which one or ones may trigger something for us.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

 

Didn’t somebody just say it was weak?  

First shortwave on 12/12. The second one for 12/13-14 is the nuke. 

[WinterWolf]

Thank you Bob and Will. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

What a wild setup. That low wants to escape east but it gets pulled back in and goes ballistic.

[CoastalWx]

The second s/w looks like a piece of the PV.

[ineedsnow]

We Nuke!

[ineedsnow]

just a bit east but that's a nice setup

[ORH_wxman]

Anyways. Def potential there. Good to see an OP run blow it up nicely. It’s been showing up on a decent number of ensemble members the last couple days. 

[brooklynwx99]

west based blocking decaying around that time also argues for a storm popping up 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We blizzard 

If that happened verbatim, I might need to chase that in Yarmouth, lol. That looks like a grid collapser on the Cape. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The second s/w looks like a piece of the PV.

Yeah, if you trace it back, it breaks off from the PV in BC and dive south and east.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Digging trends over the last 24hr out west. Bodes well downstream for something to pop.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Digging trends over the last 24hr out west. Bodes well downstream for something to pop.

Amplifying ridge over west coast plus a decaying -NAO block near Hudson/Baffin and already a cold antecedent airmass equals good things happening for us usually. 
 

I think this one will be on the models quite a bit over the next couple days…let’s get the signal even stronger. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

If that happened verbatim, I might need to chase that in Yarmouth, lol. That looks like a grid collapser on the Cape. 

Lol…here we go again…hope west doesn’t gets boned if this somehow materializes.  Trapped and pulled back is always precarious for the area. 

[moneypitmike]

Mattapoisett Mauler.

In 4 days, that'll be progged to be in the Gulf of Maine.

[Baroclinic Zone]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Amplifying ridge over west coast plus a decaying -NAO block near Hudson/Baffin and already a cold antecedent airmass equals good things happening for us usually. 
 

I think this one will be on the models quite a bit over the next couple days…let’s get the signal even stronger. 

There’s a follow up wave in there as that could pop something. It’s late on this run but shows the potential is there.