December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[RU848789]

This might wake a few folks up.  Long way to go, but nice to see...

[eduggs]

Anybody notice how far south the Wed shortwave has gotten on the GFS? It gets the 500mb 540dm contour all the way down into the Carolinas this run (0z). It's been steadily shifting south for maybe a half dozens runs now. It probably doesn't mean much given the relative short range (and lack of support)... but any further south and northern parts of the region would be in the game for some wintry precip. The Poconos are already in the game. I-84 region is borderline.

[NorthShoreWx]

Most places in this region are going to have above freezing max Ts on Monday.  Maybe 40⁰ in NYC  area.  Temps in the wee hours are rising ahead of the Arctic front.

[Snowlover11]

Had a brief snow shower roll in, winds picking up.

[NittanyWx]

11 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Don’t think El Niño or La Niña matters really, hey we got the elusive SSWE and MJO phase 8 and we have zero threats on the horizon

 

La Nina/El Nino correlations are vastly overestimated with regards to snowfall around here.  Unless you're in a strong to very strong state for both of them you'll have winters that run the gamut.

 

[MJO812]

8 hours ago, RU848789 said:

This might wake a few folks up.  Long way to go, but nice to see...

The wave at 144 on the 6z euro is more amplified. Lets see if we can finally get on board.

[NEG NAO]

6 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Most places in this region are going to have above freezing max Ts on Monday.  Maybe 40⁰ in NYC  area.  Temps in the wee hours are rising ahead of the Arctic front.

Upton has highs in Upper 20's remainder of today

[Poker2015]

6 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Most places in this region are going to have above freezing max Ts on Monday.  Maybe 40⁰ in NYC  area.  Temps in the wee hours are rising ahead of the Arctic front.

Doubtful, maybe the city and Long Island. Large populations, but not a large part of the region.

[RockawayRowdies]

Yeah. Rockaway wont even see 30F today.

[NorthShoreWx]

12 minutes ago, Poker2015 said:

Doubtful, maybe the city and Long Island. Large populations, but not a large part of the region.

 

15 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Upton has highs in Upper 20's remainder of today

Today's high temperatures have already occurred.  They were above freezing for just about everyone.

[EastonSN+]

Nice little early season snow event for North Carolina and Virginia. Wish it was here but happy for them.

[bluewave]

After midnight highs today. This happens quite a bit with Arctic fronts. Some of the great Arctic outbreaks from 77 to 94 would have had lower daily maxes if the front was just a little faster.
 

SXUS51 KOKX 080557
OSOOKX
New York City Metropolitan Area Weather Roundup
National Weather Service New York NY
100 AM EST MON DEC 08 2025

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Central Park   PTCLDY    38  24  57 VRB7      30.05R WCI  33
LaGuardia Arpt PTCLDY    40  21  46 W16G23    30.03R WCI  31
Kennedy Intl   PTCLDY    37  27  67 W9        30.05R WCI  30
Newark Liberty PTCLDY    37  25  61 W8        30.04S WCI  31
Teterboro Arpt PTCLDY    36  25  64 W7        30.03S WCI  30
Bronx Lehman C   N/A     37  27  65 W6          N/A  WCI  33
Queens College   N/A     39  27  60 W9          N/A  WCI  33
Breezy Point     N/A     37 N/A N/A W12         N/A  WCI  30
Brooklyn Coll    N/A     39  28  65 W10         N/A  WCI  32
Staten Island    N/A     36  28  75 W6          N/A  WCI  31

 

[Brian5671]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Nice little early season snow event for North Carolina and Virginia. Wish it was here but happy for them.

Richmond has had 2 events now.    Big winter for them even if nothing else happens rest of the way

[SACRUS]

30 / 11 and likely only going down from here.  Overall cold the next 10 days with the coldest today Dec 8 , Dec 13 - 17.   Perhaps a period of snow showers/ rain showers Wed during brief warmup. 

Then arctic front arrives Fri pm - Sat with the next shot at light snow / snow squalsl /showrs, otherwise a generally dry period.   Moderation by the 18th still on most forecasts and into the Christmas week.  

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 66 (1980)
NYC: 65 (1927)
LGA: 64 (1951)
JFK: 61 (2004)


Lows:

EWR: 14 (1934)
NYC: 4 (1900)
LGA: 18 (1976)
JFK: 16 (1976)

 

Historical:

1783: On Dec. 8th a mild period set in and by the 11th all the snow had melted and a diary entry on Dec. 8th described the mild period as "Indian Summer." Today, "Indian Summer" refers to mild fall weather after the season's first frost has occurred. (Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss)

1804: John Sayer at the Snake River Fir Trading Post near present day Pine City mentions: "Cold day. Thermometer 10 degrees below freezing." Lewis and Clark also noted this cold wave at their winter quarters in Ft. Mandan, North Dakota near present day Bismarck. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1876: The term BLIZZARD first employed in government “Monthly Weather Review” (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

1892 - A tremendous ice fall occurred at Gay Hill, TX. Ice averaged four to six inches in diameter. (David Ludlum)

1914: On December 7th through the 8th a northeast gale with a heavy glaze caused much damage in the Boston, Massachusetts area. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

1935: From the Monthly Weather Review for December 1935, "The outstanding flood of December 1935 was the record-breaking overflow of Buffalo and White Oak Bayous at Houston, Texas on the 8 and 9th. This destructive flood was caused by excessive rainfall over Harris County, Texas during a 42 hour period on the 6th, 7th, 8th, with amounts ranging from 5.50 inches at Houston" to 16.49 inches at the Humble Oil Company in the northwestern part of Harris County.

1938 - The temperature at La Mesa, CA, soared to 108 degrees to set a U.S. record for the month of December. (The Weather Channel)

1946: Many locations from the Missouri Valley, Midwest to the Great Lakes set record high temperatures. Charles City and Osage, IA recorded their highest December temperatures on record with 63 °F and 62 °F respectively. Other daily record highs included: Topeka, KS: 70 °F, St. Louis, MO: 70 °F, Kansas City, MO: 69 °F, Des Moines, IA: 69 °F, Omaha, NE, 68 °F, Springfield, IL: 67 °F, Evansville, IN: 67 °F, Fort Wayne, IN: 65 °F, Indianapolis, IN: 65 °F and Chicago, IL: 64 °F. (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

1963 - Lightning caused the crash of a jet airliner killing 81 persons at Elkton, MD. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1971: 6.8 inches of snow fell at Tucson, AZ for the city's biggest snowstorm on record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1972: Brutal record cold held a firm grip from the Rockies to the West Coast. The low at Billings, MT was a record at -25 °F, and the high was only -14 °F. This was the 3rd straight day that the high temp did not exceed -11 °F.
Record low temperatures for the date included: Great Falls, MT: -36 °F, Helena, MT: -35 °F (broke previous record by 11 degrees), Havre, MT: -33 °F, Sheridan, WY: -30 °F, Billings, MT: -25 °F, Winnemucca, NV: -25 °F, Pocatello, ID: -24 °F (broke previous record by 15 degrees), Rapid City, SD: -23 °F, Fargo, ND: -21 °F, Kalispell, MT: -20 °F, Burns, OR: -20 °F, Missoula, MT: -19 °F, Boise, ID: -19 °F (broke previous record by 17 degrees), Casper, WY: -19 °F, Eugene, OR: -12 °F (broke previous record by 30 degrees), Salem, OR: -12 °F (broke previous record by 29 degrees), Reno, NV: -12 °F (broke previous record by 12 degrees), Pendleton, OR: -11 °F (broke previous record by 14 degrees). The sunshine state lived up to its name with a few locations reporting record highs including: Fort Myers, FL: 88 °F, Orlando, FL: 86 °F and Tampa, FL: 86 °F. (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

1978: Record cold prevailed from the Rockies to the west coast thanks to a strong and deep upper level trough. Alamosa, CO tied their December record low with -42 °F. Other daily record lows for the date included: Flagstaff, AZ: -23 °F (broke previous record by 15 degrees), Pueblo, CO: -23 °F (broke previous record by 14 degrees), St. Cloud, MN: -22 °F, Sioux City, IA: -19 °F, North Platte, NE: -17 °F, Colorado Springs, CO: -14 °F, Grand Junction, CO: -12 °F (broke previous record by 15 degrees), Goodland, KS: -11 °F, Winslow, AZ: -10 °F (broke previous record by 15 degrees), Denver, CO: -10 °F, Clayton, NM: -7 °F, Roswell, NM: -7 °F (broke previous record by 13 degrees).
Meanwhile, an upper level ridge off the southeast coast brought record high temperatures to parts of the southeast including: Fort Myers, FL: 90 °F, Orlando, FL: 88 °F, Daytona Beach, FL: 85 °F, Key West, FL: 85 °F, Vero Beach, FL: 85 °F-Tied, Jacksonville, FL: 83 °F, Columbia, SC: 83 °F, Savannah, GA: 82 °F, Charleston, SC: 82 °F, New Orleans, LA: 82 °F-Tied, Meridian, MS: 81 °F, Pensacola, FL: 80 °F, Wilmington, NC: 80 °F, Columbus, GA: 79 °F, Raleigh, NC: 78 °F, Bristol, TN: 77 °F, Chattanooga, TN: 77 °F, Richmond, VA: 77 °F, Norfolk, VA: 77 °F-Tied, Atlanta, GA: 76 °F, Tupelo, MS: 76 °F-Tied, Knoxville, TN: 75 °F-Tied, Cape Hatteras, NC: 74 °F, Washington, DC: 74 °F, Roanoke, VA: 73 °F, Sterling (Dulles Airport), VA: 72 °F and Oak Ridge, TN: 72 °F-Tied.(Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

1987 - A cold front crossing the northwestern U.S. continued to produce high winds along the coast, and heavy snow blanketed parts of the western U.S. Snowfall totals in the mountains of western Nevada ranged up to 18 inches at Heavenly Valley, and near the Boreal Ski Resort, and winds at Reno NV gusted to 56 mph. Thunderstorms over southern Florida deluged the Florida Keys with up to five inches of rain. Strong winds, gusting to 48 mph at Gage OK, ushered wintry weather into the Central High Plains. Goodland KS, which one day earlier was 63 degrees, was blanketed with two inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Santa Ana winds buffeted southern California, with gusts to 92 mph reported at Laguna Peak. The high winds unroofed buildings, and downed trees and power lines, igniting five major fires, and numerous smaller ones. Damage was estimated at 15 to 20 million dollars. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A winter storm spread snow and freezing rain across much of the Atlantic Coast Region, from Georgia to New Jersey. Snowfall totals ranged up to seven inches, at Stanton VA and Tobacco MD. Up to six inches of snow blanketed the mountains of northern Georgia. More than one hundred auto accidents were reported in Gwinnett County GA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)


1991: A late-season outbreak of severe thunderstorms ahead of a cold front moved across central Illinois. Baseball-size hail was reported at Manito in Mason County, as well as Tremont in Tazewell County. In Menard County, tennis-ball size hail was reported at Petersburg. A tornado touched down near the town of McLean and moved east to near Heyworth. This tornado caused some damage to a manufacturing plant, as well as several outbuildings on farms along the storm's path. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1996: The same coastal storm the dumped heavy snow over central and northern New England produced 3 inches of rain at the Blue Hill Observatory in Milton, MA. This pushed its yearly rainfall to 65.77 inches. This set a new record for yearly rainfall for a site that has kept records at a relatively unchanged climatological location for 110 years. This new record was broken only two years later, in 1998. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1998: The most consecutive days of 70 °F or warmer in the winter season in Richmond, Virginia was 6 days in 1998 from December 3rd to December 8th. Also a maximum temperature of 81 °F occurred on the 6th and 7th in this period. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records KRIC)

2000: California braced for blackouts as the state continued to experience an electrical power crisis. Abnormally cold temperatures, 10 to 20 degrees below normal, pushed power demands to critical levels. The state warned that it was facing a Staff 3 crisis, where mandatory blackouts would occur. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2002: A tragedy unfolded as residents in North Carolina started using unorthodox methods to keep warm during the state's worst ice storm ever. Over 100 people were hospitalized and two died from carbon monoxide poisoning. One man died after using a charcoal grill to heat his home and another died while using a generator in an enclosed sun-porch area. National Guardsmen went door to door to caution residents about heating their homes improperly and to notify them about the availability of shelters.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

[SACRUS]

 

First Week Dep

EWR:  -7.3
 
12/1: 45 / 29 (-5)
12/2: 41 / 29 (-7)
12/3: 44 / 31 (-3)
12/4: 44 / 24 (-7)
12/5: 31 / 20 (-15)
12/6: 44 / 31 (-3)
12/7: 44 / 28 (-4)


NYC:  -7.5
12/1: 43 / 34 (-4)
12/2: 40 / 34 (-6)
12/3: 41 / 31 (-7)
12/4: 41 / 24 (-9)
12/5: 32 / 20 (-16)
12/6: 42 / 30 (-6)
12/7: 43 / 34 (-2)

 

A touch colder than last year
 

2024:

EWR:  - 6.1

Dec 1:  39 / 24 (-10)
Dec 2:  42 / 25 (-8)
Dec 3:  44 / 32 (-3)
Dec 4: 42 / 24 (-8)
Dec 5: 41 / 31 (-5)
Dec 6:  37 / 30 (-7)
Dec 7:  44 / 31 (-2)
 

 

NYC: - 7.3

DEC 1: 38 / 27 (-10)
DEC 2:  39 / 29 (-9)
DEC: 3 42 / 32  (-6)
Dec 4:  42 / 30 (-6)
Dec 5: 40 / 31  (-6)
Dec 6: 34 / 30 (-10)
Dec 7: 41 / 31 (-5)

[bluewave]

Ski resorts continue to be the big winner the overpowering Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet.

 

 

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Ski resorts continue to be the big winner the overpowering Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet.

 

And the southern Piedmont of Virginia

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, eduggs said:

And the southern Piedmont of Virginia

Fits the Great Lakes cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger and Rain-snow gradient, and suppressed Southern stream which has dominated since 2018-2019.

Very difficult to achieve a true benchmark KU track with such a fast  Pacific Jet.

Way too many issues with kicker lows, amplified ridges pushing the gradient just north of NYC, and generally very poor wavelength spacing with so many shortwaves racing through the fast flow. 

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Fits the Great Lakes cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger and Rain-snow gradient, and suppressed Southern stream which has dominated since 2018-2019.

Very difficult to achieve a true benchmark KU track with such a fast  Pacific Jet.

Way too many issues with kicker lows, amplified ridges pushing the gradient just north of NYC, and generally very poor wavelength spacing with so many shortwaves racing through the fast flow. 

We don't need a benchmark track or a major snowstorm. There are a hundred ways to get snow in our area. We just need a little luck with shortwave evolution. Sometimes "suppression" favors coastal Georgia, and other times it favors our area. It depends on minor details in the upper level and its progression. I believe it is wrong to lump everything into a box to try to explain it considering the forces that drive weather are extremely complex and variable. Every day, every weather map, every situation is unique. This year Chicago, Albany, NY, Richmond, and Mt. Mansfield are way ahead of ave. snowfall to date. That random list of cities could easily have included NYC with minor changes to how events played out.

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, eduggs said:

We don't need a benchmark track or a major snowstorm. There are a hundred ways to get snow in our area. We just need a little luck with shortwave evolution. Sometimes "suppression" favors coastal Georgia, and other times it favors our area. It depends on minor details in the upper level and its progression. I believe it is wrong to lump everything into a box to try to explain it considering the forces that drive weather are extremely complex and variable. Every day, every weather map, every situation is unique. This year Chicago, Albany, NY, Richmond, and Mt. Mansfield are way ahead of ave. snowfall to date. That random list of cities could easily have included NYC with minor changes to how events played out.

We haven’t had a single average or above average snowfall season since the mid 90s without having at least one NESIS 1 or higher BM KU snowstorm.

So KU benchmark storms have been mandatory for reaching average to above average snow since 93-94.

Prior to the mid 90s this wasn’t the case in the much colder climate. We could string together a series of smaller snow events and reach into the 20s for snowfall. 
 

 

[North and West]

Nice little early season snow event for North Carolina and Virginia. Wish it was here but happy for them.

Hope that people who enjoy snow there were able to do so. Just because we’re not enjoying it at this doesn’t mean we can’t be happy for them.


.

[Brian5671]

Nasty day out there with the wind and temps holding in the mid 20's.  Deep January like day.

[eduggs]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We haven’t had a single average or above average snowfall season since the mid 90s without having at least one NESIS 1 or higher BM KU snowstorm.

So KU benchmark storms have been mandatory for reaching average to above average snow since 93-94.

Prior to the mid 90s this wasn’t the case in the much colder climate. We could string together a series of smaller snow events and reach into the 20s for snowfall. 
 

 

You seem to have a very narrow and rigid way of looking at weather and statistics. That's fine. Considering the relatively small sample size of seasons and the highly variable nature of local weather, I prefer to use a less rigid framework when assessing future possibilities... just a difference of preference and interpretation.

[North and West]

We haven’t had a single average or above average snowfall season since the mid 90s without having at least one NESIS 1 or higher BM KU snowstorm.
So KU benchmark storms have been mandatory for reaching average to above average snow since 93-94.
Prior to the mid 90s this wasn’t the case in the much colder climate. We could string together a series of smaller snow events and reach into the 20s for snowfall. 
 
 

Eh, but those days are over, right? It’s like manual transmissions or writing in cursive.


.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, North and West said:

Eh, but those days are over, right? It’s like manual transmissions or writing in cursive.


.

yeah I don't think anyone's looking for average or above average snowfall this year.

[eduggs]

There's pretty good support for some wintry precipitation for the I-84 corridor early Wed. This has been trending colder for several days. Some guidance gets it as close as Morris, Rockland, Westchester counties. A cold Tue night will give some a chance, but the boundary layer will warm quickly early Wed. Does the initial precip. pass well to the north and then basically a cold front passage, or does it shift far enough south for a few hour burst of snow/IP/ZR... something to watch...

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, eduggs said:

You seem to have a very narrow and rigid way of looking at weather and statistics. That's fine. Considering the relatively small sample size of seasons and the highly variable nature of local weather, I prefer to use a less rigid framework when assessing future possibilities... just a difference of preference and interpretation.

30 years since the mid 90s and over 100 years prior to that period isn’t a small sample size. What you describe as rigid is actually a very comprehensive approach which I have used with great success for long range outlooks.

Since my approach is data driven, I haven’t come to any firm ideas yet on whether we can eventually shift back to at least some occasional benchmark tracks in the future.

But the long term decline in snowfall has been unmistakable. So I leave open the idea of a bounce off these lows in coming years if we can weaken the Pacific Jet a bit. But this is very uncertain since the recent shifts have been so extreme. 

[psv88]

Yay cold and dry

[NEG NAO]

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah I don't think anyone's looking for average or above average snowfall this year.

I am sure Virginia wasn't looking for average or above average snowfall and they are getting closer to it and its only December 8 - totally unexpected - could easily have happened around these parts = also these Clipper systems are not being handled well by the models or the arctic air - have to take them one at a time - this supposed warmup Christmas week is suspect too at this point