December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[RU848789]

This might wake a few folks up.  Long way to go, but nice to see...

[eduggs]

Anybody notice how far south the Wed shortwave has gotten on the GFS? It gets the 500mb 540dm contour all the way down into the Carolinas this run (0z). It's been steadily shifting south for maybe a half dozens runs now. It probably doesn't mean much given the relative short range (and lack of support)... but any further south and northern parts of the region would be in the game for some wintry precip. The Poconos are already in the game. I-84 region is borderline.

[NorthShoreWx]

Most places in this region are going to have above freezing max Ts on Monday.  Maybe 40⁰ in NYC  area.  Temps in the wee hours are rising ahead of the Arctic front.

[Snowlover11]

Had a brief snow shower roll in, winds picking up.

[NittanyWx]

11 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Don’t think El Niño or La Niña matters really, hey we got the elusive SSWE and MJO phase 8 and we have zero threats on the horizon

 

La Nina/El Nino correlations are vastly overestimated with regards to snowfall around here.  Unless you're in a strong to very strong state for both of them you'll have winters that run the gamut.

 

[MJO812]

8 hours ago, RU848789 said:

This might wake a few folks up.  Long way to go, but nice to see...

The wave at 144 on the 6z euro is more amplified. Lets see if we can finally get on board.

[NEG NAO]

6 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Most places in this region are going to have above freezing max Ts on Monday.  Maybe 40⁰ in NYC  area.  Temps in the wee hours are rising ahead of the Arctic front.

Upton has highs in Upper 20's remainder of today

[Poker2015]

6 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Most places in this region are going to have above freezing max Ts on Monday.  Maybe 40⁰ in NYC  area.  Temps in the wee hours are rising ahead of the Arctic front.

Doubtful, maybe the city and Long Island. Large populations, but not a large part of the region.