December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[MJO812]

East 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Atleast there's a 80% probability of a storm, I wouldn't be too worried with thermals as of now. Also with a strong enough storm will drag the cold air in,depending on actual high pressure position.

[WeatherGeek2025]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

East 

that looks like white rain south of White Plains, NY.

 

 

We need a colder solution!

[anthonymm]

12z euro quite wintry looking for the metro.

[NEG NAO]

10 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

that looks like white rain south of White Plains, NY.

 

 

We need a colder solution!

there is going to be mixing somewhere- these amounts are not accurate yet BUT GFS and Euro moved closer to their mean Ensembles - probably more adjustments to come

[WestBabylonWeather]

A good start. Something to track. Even if it doesn’t pan out for us 

[wdrag]

Am at Thanksgiving family dinner. If All goes well one or two threads will begin 9pm tonight or7am Friday.  If it’s snow it will be for odds on CP first measurable snow sleet    No time to elaborate right now.  Have a wonderful family dinner. Walt

[WeatherGeek2025]

22 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Am at Thanksgiving family dinner. If All goes well one or two threads will begin 9pm tonight or7am Friday.  If it’s snow it will be for odds on CP first measurable snow sleet    No time to elaborate right now.  Have a wonderful family dinner. Walt

happy thanksgiving everybody hope you get to enjoy it with your families!

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow and Saturday will be unseasonably cold days. Tomorrow will be windy with a possibility of some snow flurries.

There is potential for New York City's Central Park to experience its first freeze of 2025 tomorrow or, more likely, Saturday morning. The 1991-2020 normal first date is November 21. The 1961-1990 baseline was November 11. Last winter's first freeze occurred on November 30.

Saturday and Sunday will see a snowstorm blanket parts of the Great Lakes Region. Chicago and Milwaukee could see 6"-12" of snow. Detroit could pick up 4"-8". Toronto could see 3"-6".

Sunday and Monday will turn somewhat milder. Showers are possible on Monday as a cold front moves across the region. Generally colder than normal conditions could then continue into or through the second week of December. Severe cold appears unlikely through at least the first 10 days of December. 

Moreover, a storm could affect the region on Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing 0.50"-1.50" precipitation to the region. There is a distinct possibility that New York City could see its first measurable snowfall of the season. Interior sections have the highest probability of seeing accumulations of snow.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.16°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +1.97 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.036 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.1° (0.9° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.6° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[North and West]

Am at Thanksgiving family dinner. If All goes well one or two threads will begin 9pm tonight or7am Friday.  If it’s snow it will be for odds on CP first measurable snow sleet    No time to elaborate right now.  Have a wonderful family dinner. Walt

Enjoy the company of the people you love!


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