December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[jm1220]

4 hours ago, eduggs said:

There's very little support on any of the major ensembles for much snow through 10 days... or even 12 days (corrected, the GEFS shows the Dec 4/5 potential wintry event). It looks relatively active with cold air not too far away, but the multi-guidance consensus suggests the progression and evolution of the longwave pattern is not locally favorable. Even the individual members are stingy with wintry outcomes for the moment. Early December is still highly trackable... and we know that ensemble members group too close to the parent model, so favorable changes are still possible especially out past 7 days.

The worst for me is the cold/dry. If it won’t snow I’d rather it be mild. Last winter was the worst for that reason-so much wasted cold.