December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[wdrag]

I've appended the week 3-4 CPC Outlook issued 11/21 and the monthly outlook issued 11/20. Click for clarity.

There has been discussion of the stratwarm impact on North America In December.  I hope I'm very wrong thinking "is that all there is around the NYS subforum?"

For now unless the 5H cold core recenters - penetrates significantly further south into Hud Bay (below 60N) or we develop a 'general' +PNA, -NAO  in December,  its impact here in the northeast may be minimal. I just don't know.  Others hereon are more informed. 

Entire month open to discussion...bring on the snow and lets get off to a good start in CP etc.  

[NEG NAO]

At least the storm track will not be too far south according to their Precip Outlook and  the Polar Vortex is not going to plunge too far south  when it is stretched by the Strat Warming Event according to their Monthly Temp Outlook. Heard that the Vortex will be stretching rather than a full displacement............

[wdrag]

31 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

At least the storm track will not be too far south according to their Precip Outlook and  the Polar Vortex is not going to plunge too far south  when it is stretched by the Strat Warming Event according to their Monthly Temp Outlook. Heard that the Vortex will be stretching rather than a full displacement............

Yes, I hear its not full blown.  I guess we cannot count on a stratwarm in late winter since they're rare.  if we end up below normal snowfall in Dec, the best of winters long nights and snow potential may be gone for the season.  

Hoping this comes together for us.

[gravitylover]

I was thinking similarly. Considering the warmer background state it seems that as the early cold degrades winter may struggle to stay.

[donsutherland1]

 

 

[NEG NAO]

Looks like the main storm track will stay west of us at least through the Ohio Valley up into Canada through December 5th with quick shots of colder air - progressive pattern with no established cold air YET....Southeast ridge in control as we migrate from MJO phase 6 into 7 and then 8 2nd week of DEC

[SnoSki14]

You won't see MJO 8, it's already curling back to COD

[NEG NAO]

16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

You won't see MJO 8, it's already curling back to COD

wanna make a bet ?

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

You won't see MJO 8, it's already curling back to COD

No its not

Stop posting nonsense 

[MJO812]

[eduggs]

If there's any way the 12z ICON is on the right track at the end of its run, that would play out a lot better for early December than 0z/6z GFS/CMC/ECM...

We'll see if the ICON is far off on its own or a harbinger of a 12z trend.

[eduggs]

The 12z CMC is trying to snow to the CA beaches again. That won't work out well for us. When we stop seeing strong ULLs over southern CA we will have a shot of wintry.