December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[wdrag]

I've appended the week 3-4 CPC Outlook issued 11/21 and the monthly outlook issued 11/20. Click for clarity.

There has been discussion of the stratwarm impact on North America In December.  I hope I'm very wrong thinking "is that all there is around the NYS subforum?"

For now unless the 5H cold core recenters - penetrates significantly further south into Hud Bay (below 60N) or we develop a 'general' +PNA, -NAO  in December,  its impact here in the northeast may be minimal. I just don't know.  Others hereon are more informed. 

Entire month open to discussion...bring on the snow and lets get off to a good start in CP etc.  

[NEG NAO]

At least the storm track will not be too far south according to their Precip Outlook and  the Polar Vortex is not going to plunge too far south  when it is stretched by the Strat Warming Event according to their Monthly Temp Outlook. Heard that the Vortex will be stretching rather than a full displacement............

[wdrag]

31 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

At least the storm track will not be too far south according to their Precip Outlook and  the Polar Vortex is not going to plunge too far south  when it is stretched by the Strat Warming Event according to their Monthly Temp Outlook. Heard that the Vortex will be stretching rather than a full displacement............

Yes, I hear its not full blown.  I guess we cannot count on a stratwarm in late winter since they're rare.  if we end up below normal snowfall in Dec, the best of winters long nights and snow potential may be gone for the season.  

Hoping this comes together for us.

[gravitylover]

I was thinking similarly. If it stays warm up north and doesn't build serious cold early when it's dark, what's left for us later. Considering the warmer background state it seems that as the cold degrades winter will struggle to stay.

[donsutherland1]