Overnight Wednesday, November 5, 2025 Wind Event

[weatherwiz]

A potent shortwave trough will continue amplifying as it progresses across New England characterized by a narrow 130+ knot jet streak rounding the base of the trough. Amplifying trough with diffluent upper-level flow will help strengthen a west-to-east surface low across the Great Lakes region across northern New England while lifting a warm front from southwest to northeast across the region during the day and a cold front through during the evening. There are two potential hazards with this system:

1) Convective showers (which may or may not contain lightning) moving through during the evening ahead of the cold front. 

     - Forecast model guidance yields very weak surface based instability as dewpoints climb through the 40's under steepening lapse rates. Given the combination of increasing flow aloft and inverted V signatures on many forecast soundings, these showers will have potential to produce localized damaging wind gusts with evaporative cooling aiding in the transport of downward momentum. There is potential for convection to blossom, especially towards eastern Mass and Cape Cod in which there could be a small window for some more concentrated pockets of damaging wind gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado.

2) Behind the passage of the cold front, strong CAA ranks from the northwest as the low-level flow continues to significantly strengthen for several hours. Forecast model soundings yield very strong mixing up through 3-4K resulting in very steep low-level lapse rates. Given potential for 50+ knots of wind at 850mb and favorable thermal profile to tap into these winds, a several hour period of wind gusts in the 45-55 mph range are likely; including potential for some gusts upwards of 55-65 mph in the typical wind prone areas. Scattered power outages are likely due to the strong winds.

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

As you note, @weatherwiz, this is a different setup than our usual modeled wind events that fail. I'm very impressed by the level of mixing that's showing up across guidance, and obviously, a NW flow event is a far more common way for us to get big wind across the interior than relying on southerly flow. I could absolutely see max gusts late tomorrow/early Thursday ranging in the 50-65mph range depending on location. The saving grace for damage is that we are past peak with a lot of leaf drop. 

06z Euro

 

12z GFS

[SJonesWX]

please, I beg all of you to please stay safe during these trying times.

[dendrite]

Looks more like a SNE deal, but it’s too bad it doesn’t go through midday vs overnight. 

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks more like a SNE deal, but it’s too bad it doesn’t go through midday vs overnight. 

Yeah, then we'd really be talking about Kevin's grid collapse. 

[Snowcrazed71]

12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, then we'd really be talking about Kevin's grid collapse. 

He'd get his wish!

[Torch Tiger]

Maybe ORH hits 60 or 65, but probably 20-30 g50 here.  nbd

[weatherwiz]

Waiting on the 18z HRRR bufkit but the 18z HRRR has a pretty solid line moving through which may or may not contain some thunder/lightning. There are some important notes about this to keep in mind:

1) Typically (probably often) we don't see much in the way of wind transported down to the surface within these lines in this kind of setup. There are several reasons for this, however, perhaps the most important is the air becomes too stable too quickly, inhibiting winds from mixing to the surface. 

2) The presence of any thunder/lightning (as we saw last night) increases the potential for strong winds to make it to the surface via downward momentum transfer and this indicates the presence of instability. The challenge tomorrow evening will be, will the weak instability we may have be just enough to aid in this process? 

3) In terms of the region as a whole, the winds will likely begin to increase significantly and quickly just behind the line. You'll have strong CAA advecting within the 1-3km level which is going to vastly increase your low-level lapse rate - this will be the catalyst for mixing down stronger winds. Also, there may be some evaporative cooling going on just behind the line (as we may still have some llvl moisture present) which will further help to initially mix down winds. 

4) There are always going to be very local mesoscale and microscale processes which will have a great impact locally. With this, we will likely see this either perform accordingly or maybe even slightly overperform within areas which are prone to higher wind events. Subsequently, there will be areas where the wind doesn't seem impressive at all. That has nothing to do with the setup, that is a product of microscale processes and local topography. (This is something that also can be applied to just about any weather event). 

But with many forecast soundings showing nearly a dry adiabatic profile up though 3-4k with a drying profile, we should mix sufficiently...but there could be some caveats such as if there happen to be any subtle just above sfc inversions. If this was coming during the day it would be difficult to find any concerns

[CoastalWx]

Feel like 18z runs backed down a bit. 

[moneypitmike]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Feel like 18z runs backed down a bit. 

 

thread cancel.

[OrangeCTWX]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Feel like 18z runs backed down a bit. 

Was thinking the same thing. 

[vortex95]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Feel like 18z runs backed down a bit. 

The 18z HRRR looks almost identical synoptically.  The low is just as deep and comma head stout.

[CoastalWx]

25 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

The 18z HRRR looks almost identical synoptically.  The low is just as deep and comma head stout.

I know but things like orientation of the low when the LLJ swings by matter. 50-55 at 925 vs 65kts is bigly difference. 
 

Hopefully 00z is damaging. 

[CoastalWx]

18z GFS backed off too. Time to cancel.

[Torch Tiger]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

18z GFS backed off too. Time to cancel.

pretty much the same as 12z? 

[Torch Tiger]

I'm not really seeing any big changes from 12z near the S shore

[ineedsnow]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

18z GFS backed off too. Time to cancel.

She gone 

[Damage In Tolland]

Everything looks on track .

You can use last night as an example. It looked like a line of light showers and ended up severe with damage , hail, tornadoes and strong rise/fall couplet gusts behind . All systems go

[vortex95]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

18z GFS backed off too. Time to cancel.

CoastalWx would be surprised what the event here yesterday turned into over Atlantic Canada.  Sting jet and all! 

This next storm does something similar, expect New England catches the RI phase, and the low ends up 968 mb almost in the same exact
position S of Newfoundland Thu aftn.  This shows how good a pattern it is -- it reloads on the fly!

 

[Krs4Lfe]

18 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

CoastalWx would be surprised what the event here yesterday turned into over Atlantic Canada.  Sting jet and all! 

This next storm does something similar, expect New England catches the RI phase, and the low ends up 968 mb almost in the same exact
position S of Newfoundland Thu aftn.  This shows how good a pattern it is -- it reloads on the fly!

 

If we can get this pattern to last into winter, it can funnel cold air on the backside of these storms which would allow cold air to be in place for the following storm (similar to the winter storm parade of Jan-Feb 2015 and Feb 2017.) one storm moves in after the other and it creates some blocking in Atlantic Canada and North Atlantic, funnels cold air down from Canada just in time for the next storm behind that. Been a while since we’ve seen that happen. 

[CoastalWx]

28 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

CoastalWx would be surprised what the event here yesterday turned into over Atlantic Canada.  Sting jet and all! 

This next storm does something similar, expect New England catches the RI phase, and the low ends up 968 mb almost in the same exact
position S of Newfoundland Thu aftn.  This shows how good a pattern it is -- it reloads on the fly!

 

I’m not saying there won’t be strong winds, but the higher end stuff at least at 18Z definitely backed off.

 

by the way, I know you talked about the possible tornadoes in Southeast mass, but there was big-time wind damage in certain spots. I saw a picture at Bourne and there was also tons of trees flattened. 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

18z GFS backed off too. Time to cancel. 

Close it down. Next!

[WinterWolf]

18z is always a spoof….watch as 0z ramps it up again.  F**k 18z garbage. 

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I know but things like orientation of the low when the LLJ swings by matter. 50-55 at 925 vs 65kts is bigly difference. 
 

Hopefully 00z is damaging. 

We are talking basically mesoscale stuff here.  Sting jets are tricky.  Location and timing are everything!  Recall how localized the real crazy winds were on Dec 9, 2005?  Had to be on the S Coast and Cape.  PVD and GHG were not nearly as bad!

[Damage In Tolland]

We sting 

[Damage In Tolland]

Float like a butterfly… sting Scooter like a bee 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

We are talking basically mesoscale stuff here.  Sting jets are tricky.  Location and timing are everything!  Recall how localized the real crazy winds were on Dec 9, 2005?  Had to be on the S Coast and Cape.  PVD and GHG were not nearly as bad!

This is not even close to 12/9/05.  GHG had 70+. This is a seabreeze compared  to that. 

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m not saying there won’t be strong winds, but the higher end stuff at least at 18Z definitely backed off.

 

by the way, I know you talked about the possible tornadoes in Southeast mass, but there was big-time wind damage in certain spots. I saw a picture at Bourne and there was also tons of trees flattened. 

The LSR does not mention Bourne damage?  Also, just b/c it is called a gustnado, does not make it not a tornado.  The official definition is if a gustnado is attached to the cloud base, it is a tornado.  And gustnadoes do not typically stay coherent for very long, esp. if it is not flat terrain, yet you have an interminent damage in a 50 mi swath from RI to the CC Canal.   So it was all gustnadoes then?  Given the high shear/low CAPE environment, brief tornadic spin-ups are not a stretch at all, and this event warrants a closer, in situ look IMHO.

[vortex95]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is not even close to 12/9/05.  GHG had 70+. This is a seabreeze compared  to that. 

What I am saying is that these RI events can be sneaky and surprise us.  I am not talking a Dec 9, 2005 repeat.  But wind is wind, so is a sting jet.

And don't you recall?  Did anyone have a clue even that morning on Dec 9, 2005 what was going to happen?  I recall it was a just going to be a run-of-the-mill 4-8" event N of the Pike!  Only the Dec 23, 1997 ++SN (the BOS Herald "THEY BLEW IT!" event, rivals the Dec 2005 surprise!  CoastalWx's favorite though is the early March 2013 event.  Sfc low 600 mi out, and Blue Hill gets 30"!  Biggest bust ev-A!

And we know we are in an ideal position from a longwave pattern POV to take full advantage of systems moving through.  The building blocks are there, so that's why I am cautiously optimistic here it could be a good weenie event!  

G70?  The 12z HRRR showed that easily right offshore in ern MA.  G70 is nothing compared to the G100 on the S Coast for the Dec 2005 storm.  You do realize that about the only time low elevations of New England get G100 is w/ hurricanes.  It's quite rare in winter storms.
 

[Krs4Lfe]

9 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

What I am saying is that these RI events can be sneaky and surprise us.  I am not talking a Dec 9, 2005 repeat.  But wind is wind, so is a sting jet.

And don't you recall?  Did anyone have a clue even that morning on Dec 9, 2005 what was going to happen?  I recall it was a just going to be a run-of-the-mill 4-8" event N of the Pike!  Only the Dec 23, 1997 ++SN (the BOS Herald "THEY BLEW IT!" event, rivals the Dec 2005 surprise!  CoastalWx's favorite though is the early March 2013 event.  Sfc low 600 mi out, and Blue Hill gets 30"!  Biggest bust ev-A!

And we know we are in an ideal position from a longwave pattern POV to take full advantage of systems moving through.  The building blocks are there, so that's why I am cautiously optimistic here it could be a good weenie event!  

G70?  The 12z HRRR showed that easily right offshore in ern MA.  G70 is nothing compared to the G100 on the S Coast for the Dec 2005 storm.  You do realize that about the only time low elevations of New England get G100 is w/ hurricanes.  It's quite rare in winter storms.
 

October 2021 had gusts to 50-60 mph in NYC, further out east. 100+ mph gusts in Cape Cod. That was wild. January 2022 blizzard had gusts to 35-40 (borderline blizzard in NYC), and gusts to 80s in east Mass. These events are pretty rare but they're pretty impactful when they happen.