November Medium/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

15 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

^yeah, GEFS and EPS both have a strong +PNA/-EPO developing around Thanksgiving with our -NAO fading away. My instinct is that the PNA+EPO ridging is more useful for our early season snow chances since it’s a more effective cold air delivery mechanism and we need more anomalous BN temps in early December to snow. 

The monthly snowfall composites back that up 

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, Ji said:

No but I’m sure you did

I predicted slightly above normal snowfall this year 

[Eskimo Joe]

30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I predicted slightly above normal snowfall this year 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

The fatal word of “delay”

[TSSN+]

Exhilarating 

 

[Steve25]

I don’t hate this. Not as cold as some are advertising out there, but seems to like an active storm track

[Eskimo Joe]

4 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

The fatal word of “delay”

Grit is famous for building in a 5 to 7 days delay on any pattern change. This is a wise choice.

[Chris78]

1 hour ago, Steve25 said:

I don’t hate this. Not as cold as some are advertising out there, but seems to like an active storm track

A December 5th snowfall would be great...

[Eskimo Joe]

11 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

A December 5th snowfall would be great...

Give us this: snow all along Appalachia: https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/05-Dec-09.html

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

CFS for December is lit! Advocating above normal precip and below normal temps. That can only mean ONE THING! We torch for the first two days of the month and rain like heck, then flip to cold and dry while the weenies cry.

 

 

[frd]

 

I don't give a crap about the Canadian warming later in the month, say what you want, I just like the pretty colors. 

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Long range models around the turn of the month are wanting to develop some kind of 500mb low north of Hawaii, +PNA under the -EPO/-WPO. There really no sign of a RNA pattern. That's why I think the 3-4 week CPC outlook put out today, Euro weeklies, and seasonal monthlies for Dec (CFS, CanSips) are wrong having the cold in the Upper Midwest, and a SE ridge, above average in the SE, US. MJO could be holding strength going into 7-8-1 around the 1st half of December, and I think it's a below average temperature pattern everywhere east of the Rockies.