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NNE Cold Season Thread 2025-2026


Boston Bulldog
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As of this morning we’d picked up 6-7” of snow in the valley from our most recent Clipper, and Bolton Valley was reporting 10” of new snow in the last 48 hours. Based on my tour up at Bolton yesterday afternoon/evening, I knew that all the additional snow that fell overnight was going to create some excellent conditions.

Temperatures were in the single digits F this morning, so I considered touring at Timberline with its lower elevations and typically warmer conditions, as long as the snowpack looked like it was ready. Indeed the base depths and powder seemed fine even down at 1,500’. In terms of powder depths, I was finding 8-12” around 1,500’ at the Timberline Base and roughly 12-16” up near 2,500’. The snow was quite dry (liquid analyses for the storm revealed an average of 4-5% H2O), and that was helpful, because it was deep enough that you needed to be on moderate to steep pitches for good speed. The cold temperatures made the snow even a bit slower, so low-angle areas weren’t enough if you were in untracked powder.

With bright sun and no wind, the temperatures were actually quite comfortable for touring, and the feel was much different than what single digits F feel like with clouds, snowfall, and wind.

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08DEC25E.thumb.jpg.410e311cb8f139159e992780b901dbc5.jpg

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Winter Weather Advisory up.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST 
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 7 
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northwest, and southern Vermont.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions will impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heaviest snow is expected to occur between 10 
  AM and 3 PM Wednesday.

 

 

mapgen.php?office=BTV&summary=true&pointpreferences=BTV&ptype=prob_sn&product=expected&2025120920

 

 

 

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Posting this here because the main thread is a dumpster fire. I’m going to be right on the mix line with tomorrow’s system in the foothills of Maine. Quick look at the NAM temp profiles and it seems more of a surface level issue than mid level warmth look so I’m leaning a slightly colder solution than modeled for my area. Tough forecast here. 

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30 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Posting this here because the main thread is a dumpster fire. I’m going to be right on the mix line with tomorrow’s system in the foothills of Maine. Quick look at the NAM temp profiles and it seems more of a surface level issue than mid level warmth look so I’m leaning a slightly colder solution than modeled for my area. Tough forecast here. 

I think we're riding the razors edge at the house, groomer garage should do 2-3 inches better I think based on what I've seen, there is a change 6 miles north of here where they split the county for the NWS purposes and it's almost spot on overall as there is a few hundred feet gain in elevation between here and there. 

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It looks like the Winter Weather Advisories in this area start up at 7:00 A.M. tomorrow, and the forecast here in the valley suggests accumulations in the 3-6” range. That seems to line up well with the BTV NWS Event Total Snow Accumulation map through Thursday morning. The forecast also calls for a few inches of snow beyond that period, which is probably covered in the longer period map that mreaves posted.

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09DEC25B.thumb.jpg.0f4e04e58f30056128a6b73e20ebc244.jpg

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Light WAA snow has commenced in the Champlain Valley. Looks like the LLJ is here too with strong southerly channeled winds of S24G36. 22.7°F / 12°F. Incoming returns look a little stronger than I expected so maybe we’ll squeeze out 0.5” of windy snow before the clipper arrives around 7am. 
IMG_6676.thumb.png.c750d85221484515054649f109ca5538.png

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Coldest start to December since 1989, which was 14° BN for Dec 1-9 (in Gardiner).   First flakes at 10:25 this morning, not including the 0.1" dusting last night.
(Had to use the decimal as T mucks up my formulas.)

DECEM 2025                
Date High Low Mean HDDs Rain Snow Snowpak Departure
1 34 16 25 40     1 -2.4 -2.4
2 21 10 15.5 49.5 0.43 5.2 6 -11.2 -6.8
3 33 19 26 39 0.06 1.7 7 -0.2 -4.6
4 30 6 18 47 0.00005 0.00005 6 -7.8 -5.4
5 16 -9 3.5 61.5     6 -21.8 -8.7
6 18 -4 7 58 0.00005 0.00005 5 -17.8 -10.2
7 26 3 14.5 50.5 0.04 0.5 6 -9.9 -10.1
8 20 -3 8.5 56.5 0.05 0.9 6 -15.5 -10.8
9 18 -18 0 65     6 -23.3 -12.2
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I spoke too soon. Last night we produced with the backside fluff. Final of 3.1" not including the other inch in the prior day. 

Very interesting that nighttime produces so well here. There's a meaningful difference even when temperatures are solidly below freezing. It's stark compared to anywhere else I've lived. Not sure why that is. 

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45 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I spoke too soon. Last night we produced with the backside fluff. Final of 3.1" not including the other inch in the prior day. 

Very interesting that nighttime produces so well here. There's a meaningful difference even when temperatures are solidly below freezing. It's stark compared to anywhere else I've lived. Not sure why that is. 

100% agree and same for down here, speaking mainly for my experience with W/NW orographic /upslope snow.  The good producers are almost always at night here.  Maybe places like Stowe or Jay it is more even, but I can say for down here there is a stark difference.  

I feel this has been talked about at some point maybe years ago, I just cant remember that reason.  I think one of the possible reasons was during the day with the Sun it can make them more convective in nature vs at night more stratiform without the daytime heating (relative).  I may be completely off on that though...lol.   

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Totals for VT

...Vermont...

 

...Addison County...

Starksboro 4.4 ENE           2.7 in    0900 AM 12/11   44.24N/72.97W

Bristol                      2.2 in    0645 AM 12/11   44.14N/73.09W/533

Shoreham 3.5 NNE             2.0 in    0800 AM 12/11   43.94N/73.28W/275

Vergennes                    1.4 in    0430 AM 12/11   44.17N/73.25W/194

 

...Bennington County...

5 NNW Londonderry            12.0 in   0710 AM 12/11

5 S Woodford State Park      7.8 in    1029 PM 12/10   Public

Stamford 5.0 NNE             3.6 in    0400 PM 12/10   COCORAHS

 

...Caledonia County...

Wheelock 1.6 S               5.4 in    0600 AM 12/11   44.56N/72.09W/1158

Sutton                       5.3 in    0821 AM 12/11   44.61N/72.05W/1500

Wells River 2.1 WNW          5.0 in    0656 AM 12/11   44.23N/72.11W/1206

2 NE East Lyndon             5.0 in    0700 AM 12/11   44.54N/71.94W

West Burke                   5.0 in    0728 AM 12/11   44.64N/71.98W

Danville 0.4 N               4.0 in    0700 AM 12/11   44.42N/72.14W/1406

St. Johnsbury 0.4 N          3.2 in    0730 AM 12/11   44.42N/72.02W

 

...Chittenden County...

Underhill 5.1 NNE            5.1 in    0630 AM 12/11   44.60N/72.92W/908

2 NNE Underhill              4.0 in    0822 AM 12/11   44.55N/72.93W/1000

Underhill 3.6 ESE            3.5 in    0740 AM 12/11   44.50N/72.88W

Williston 0.2 WSW            3.0 in    0700 AM 12/11   44.44N/73.07W/518

Nashville 1 E                2.9 in    0645 AM 12/11   44.45N/72.93W/825

Huntington 1.1 E             2.8 in    0700 AM 12/11   44.32N/72.97W/991

Huntington 6.5 S             2.8 in    0800 AM 12/11   44.23N/72.96W/1096

Hinesburg 0.9 N              2.8 in    0854 AM 12/11   44.34N/73.11W/519

Hinesburg 1.5 SW             2.2 in    0700 AM 12/11   44.32N/73.14W/435

Shelburne 0.5 ENE            1.7 in    0700 AM 12/11   44.38N/73.22W

South Burlington 2.6 SSW     1.7 in    0800 AM 12/11   44.42N/73.19W

South Burlington 2.4 NNE     1.5 in    0908 AM 12/11   44.49N/73.16W

Burlington 3.8 NW            0.8 in    0800 AM 12/11   44.52N/73.26W/177

 

...Essex County...

1 NW Maidstone State Park    8.5 in    0906 AM 12/11   44.66N/71.65W

Lunenburg 2.3 NNW            5.0 in    0500 AM 12/11   44.49N/71.70W/1472

Island Pond                  4.0 in    0932 AM 12/11   44.81N/71.89W/1200

 

...Franklin County...

Enosburg Falls 2.5 N         5.9 in    0730 AM 12/11   44.94N/72.80W

Montgomery 4.1 ESE           5.0 in    0700 AM 12/11   44.88N/72.56W/1005

Swanton 0.5 NNE              3.3 in    0700 AM 12/11   44.93N/73.12W/139

 

...Lamoille County...

Morrisville                  7.3 in    0726 AM 12/11   44.56N/72.60W

Johnson 2 N                  6.0 in    0730 AM 12/11   44.66N/72.68W/980

Stowe 0.2 SW                 5.7 in    0730 AM 12/11   44.46N/72.69W/731

Jeffersonville 1.3 SSW       5.2 in    0700 AM 12/11   44.63N/72.84W/804

2.5 N Smugglers Notch        5.1 in    0730 AM 12/11   44.58N/72.79W/1163

Cambridge                    5.0 in    0918 AM 12/11   44.65N/72.88W

 

...Orange County...

Randolph                     7.5 in    1031 PM 12/10   43.92N/72.67W

Braintree 2.8 SW             4.1 in    0700 AM 12/11   43.94N/72.75W/1610

Bradford 2.2 NNW             3.8 in    0530 AM 12/11   44.02N/72.15W/1124

1.5 E Corinth Corners        3.7 in    0650 AM 12/11   44.01N/72.32W/1180

2 SE Strafford               3.2 in    0630 AM 12/11   43.83N/72.36W

Williamstown 3.0 WSW         2.4 in    0700 AM 12/11   44.11N/72.60W/1565

 

...Orleans County...

Westfield 0.8 WNW            8.5 in    0730 AM 12/11   44.89N/72.44W/1068

1 WNW Albany                 6.5 in    0736 AM 12/11   44.74N/72.40W

Craftsbury Common            6.2 in    0700 AM 12/11   44.66N/72.39W

Greensboro 3.9 NNE           6.0 in    0730 AM 12/11   44.63N/72.28W/2035

Morgan 6.7 SE                5.5 in    0645 AM 12/11   44.86N/71.91W/1341

2 NNE Albany Center          5.3 in    0855 AM 12/11   44.76N/72.33W

2 N Greensboro               5.2 in    0948 AM 12/11   44.61N/72.29W

Derby Line 1.9 W             5.1 in    0700 AM 12/11   45.00N/72.14W/771

Greensboro 2.1 NNW           5.1 in    0700 AM 12/11   44.61N/72.31W/1495

Brownington 4.7 ESE          4.7 in    0800 AM 12/11   44.81N/72.08W/1467

 

...Rutland County...

West Rutland 0.9 SSE         5.5 in    0800 AM 12/11   43.58N/73.04W/545

2 NE Hortonia                5.0 in    0400 PM 12/10   43.76N/73.20W

1 N Rutland                  4.6 in    0700 AM 12/11   43.63N/72.98W/620

Rutland 1.2 N                4.6 in    0700 AM 12/11   43.63N/72.98W/629

Shrewsbury 0.8 W             4.5 in    0600 AM 12/11   43.51N/72.88W

Pittsford 2.2 SSE            4.5 in    0730 AM 12/11   43.68N/73.02W

Wallingford 2.7 SSW          3.6 in    0700 AM 12/11   43.43N/72.99W/602

 

...Washington County...

3 SSW Waterbury              8.7 in    0445 PM 12/10   44.30N/72.78W

Waterbury 3.0 NW             7.1 in    0600 AM 12/11   44.36N/72.81W/458

Woodbury 3.4 NNW             6.5 in    0700 AM 12/11   44.49N/72.43W/1624

1.6 W Worcester              6.0 in    0700 AM 12/11   44.37N/72.58W/1360

East Calais 1.5 SW           5.5 in    0700 AM 12/11   44.36N/72.46W/1054

Northfield 1.5 N             3.8 in    0700 AM 12/11   44.17N/72.65W/672

East Montpelier              3.5 in    0730 AM 12/11   44.27N/72.50W

Montpelier 1.7 NE            3.0 in    0800 AM 12/11   44.28N/72.55W

Warren 2.8 E                 2.8 in    0700 AM 12/11   44.11N/72.80W

 

...Windsor County...

Andover 2.5 NW               7.5 in    0700 AM 12/11   43.30N/72.74W/1766

Ludlow 3.4 S                 6.8 in    0700 AM 12/11   43.35N/72.70W/1727

3 S Ludlow                   6.5 in    0830 PM 12/10   43.35N/72.70W

Proctorsville 0.3 NNE        6.4 in    0700 AM 12/11   43.39N/72.64W/983

Chester 4.1 WNW              6.1 in    0800 AM 12/11   43.27N/72.67W

Hartland 4.1 W               5.5 in    0800 AM 12/11   43.53N/72.48W/1140

Chester 3.0 WSW              5.2 in    0700 AM 12/11   43.24N/72.65W/1097

Barnard 2.7 NW               4.5 in    0700 AM 12/11   43.75N/72.66W

3 NW Barnard                 4.5 in    0716 AM 12/11   43.76N/72.66W

Rochester 1.7 NNE            3.6 in    0500 AM 12/11   43.90N/72.80W

0.6 E Woodstock              3.6 in    0800 AM 12/11   43.63N/72.51W/600

North Hartland 1 NNE         3.0 in    0700 AM 12/11   43.60N/72.36W/562

 

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I spoke too soon. Last night we produced with the backside fluff. Final of 3.1" not including the other inch in the prior day. 

Very interesting that nighttime produces so well here. There's a meaningful difference even when temperatures are solidly below freezing. It's stark compared to anywhere else I've lived. Not sure why that is. 

 

27 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

100% agree and same for down here, speaking mainly for my experience with W/NW orographic /upslope snow.  The good producers are almost always at night here.  Maybe places like Stowe or Jay it is more even, but I can say for down here there is a stark difference.  

I feel this has been talked about at some point maybe years ago, I just cant remember that reason.  I think one of the possible reasons was during the day with the Sun it can make them more convective in nature vs at night more stratiform without the daytime heating (relative).  I may be completely off on that though...lol.   

Nighttime is definitely more productive upslope and my theory has always been it has to do with the developing nocturnal inversion that happens at night.  It tends to allow for a more concentrated band of low level snow.  Daytime heating tends to disrupt it to some degree (of course unless it is just a monster set up and moisture/wind overpowers it, ie northern Greens)...

I feel like the most concentrated upslope bands occur once the nocturnal inversion tries to set in aloft, trapping moisture in the low levels too, enhancing the terrain's influence further... while daytime heating causes it to go more cellular or convective showers.

I think we see it with Lake Effect too... you see more cellular squally stuff during the day but then at night you get those diesel bands of 3-5"/hr that just park themselves.

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25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 

Nighttime is definitely more productive upslope and my theory has always been it has to do with the developing nocturnal inversion that happens at night.  It tends to allow for a more concentrated band of low level snow.  Daytime heating tends to disrupt it to some degree (of course unless it is just a monster set up and moisture/wind overpowers it, ie northern Greens)...

I feel like the most concentrated upslope bands occur once the nocturnal inversion tries to set in aloft, trapping moisture in the low levels too, enhancing the terrain's influence further... while daytime heating causes it to go more cellular or convective showers.

I think we see it with Lake Effect too... you see more cellular squally stuff during the day but then at night you get those diesel bands of 3-5"/hr that just park themselves.

Thats a great hypothesis and concur. My place is about 10-12 miles ENE of WxWatcher007 in SLK- on the base of the Northern slope of Whiteface Mountain. Its around 1900 ft. I see the same phenomenon (and did this morning, too) regularly of slight enehanced upslope rates/accumulation overnight. Thanks for characterizing what I've noticed but hadn't articulated! Interesting. 

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