November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...

[George001]

4 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Honestly, What is wrong with this guidance? It’s so much worse than it was, and I don’t even think that’s debatable anymore.  WTF? 

I’m not entirely sure, but I’ve heard that guidance struggles the most during seasonal transition periods and during la Nina’s. The struggles during La Niñas I would think is because they are northern energy dominant, and models struggle the most with energy originating from the north as it’s very sparsely populated up there. We are currently in a seasonal transition period and La Niña conditions are present, so I would expect these struggles to continue.

[radarman]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

West is best today. 
 

That back edge in view from Treehouse

[CoastalWx]

EPS is cold To end. That’s a massive vortex in Canada. Would be nice to get some NAO ridging.

[TheMainer]

Topped out about 40 here, nice sunny day. Now getting a few mood flakes, not sure how since it's still pretty warm out.

Hoping for a December 07 repeat here but avoid the massive January (I think) cutter that pretty much wiped out pack almost out 

[WinterWolf]

42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS is cold To end. That’s a massive vortex in Canada. Would be nice to get some NAO ridging.

Good to hear.  
 

Every NAO that we’ve had over the last 3-4 years hasn’t done Jack for us.  In fact it’s hurt us more than anything.  
 

I’ll take some random transient ridging and run, thank you very much. 

[ORH_wxman]

55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS is cold To end. That’s a massive vortex in Canada. Would be nice to get some NAO ridging.

Not sure we’d need any NAO ridging with that look. That’s pretty cold. 
 

That SE Canada and Atlantic look is very reminiscent of early to mid December 2007…the WPO is more negative than ‘07 though…that’s pure cross polar there  

 

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not sure we’d need any NAO ridging with that look. That’s pretty cold. 
 

That SE Canada and Atlantic look is very reminiscent of early to mid December 2007…the WPO is more negative than ‘07 though…that’s pure cross polar there  

 

 

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/dec-13-2007

 

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/dec-16-2007

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not sure we’d need any NAO ridging with that look. That’s pretty cold. 
 

That SE Canada and Atlantic look is very reminiscent of early to mid December 2007…the WPO is more negative than ‘07 though…that’s pure cross polar there  

 

 

No, definitely don’t need it verbatim there, I was just thinking the NAO would help kind of pin that vortex more in Canada after a certain amount of time. Just to give it more staying power that’s all. I feel like the Pacific might relax a little bit over time.

[leo2000]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not sure we’d need any NAO ridging with that look. That’s pretty cold. 
 

That SE Canada and Atlantic look is very reminiscent of early to mid December 2007…the WPO is more negative than ‘07 though…that’s pure cross polar there  

 

 

Very nice theirs some chatter over on the other side of this forum about a robust positive AO we shall see. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, leo2000 said:

Very nice theirs some chatter over on the other side of this forum about a robust positive AO we shall see. 

+AO? 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/dec-13-2007

Here’s the mid December 2007 stretch that was quite kind to the region. Esp N of pike but even that 12/13 event got your area good. 12/16 hammered pike northward. You can see that big vortex in SE Canada. 
 

[eduggs]

15 day EPS anomaly charts haven't meant much lately - not sure if they ever really did. But even if we accept it as is, the neg anomalies over SCal and pos anomalies in the Deep South are red flags. This is a common and recent failure mode. Yes, more so for the Mid-Atl than for NE... but I'd still rather be in the Whites or Maine for a "pattern" like that.

[leo2000]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

+AO? 

Yes, Don was mentioning it with evidence to back it up a forecast that shows it latter now. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Here’s the mid December 2007 stretch that was quite kind to the region. Esp N of pike but even that 12/13 event got your area good. 12/16 hammered pike northward. You can see that big vortex in SE Canada. 
 

Ya pretty similar, hopefully we can squash the SE ridge a bit more to spread the wealth this time. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

+AO? 

Looks like all teleconnections are pretty neutral actually on all guidance especially dec 1-10

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

15 day EPS anomaly charts haven't meant much lately - not sure if they ever really did. But even if we accept it as is, the neg anomalies over SCal and pos anomalies in the Deep South are red flags. This is a common and recent failure mode. Yes, more so for the Mid-Atl than for NE... but I'd still rather be in the Whites or Maine for a "pattern" like that.

It’s def not a Kocin cookbook pattern at all. But sometimes our best stretches are when we have to play with fire. Ala those 2007 and 2008 type stretches with lots of battleground between SE ridge and confluence to the north. But if we’re gonna deal with classic La Niña deep -PDO and a -PNA pattern, this is one of the better ones to try and make it work…you have excellent cross polar flow showing up almost the entire run so at least we will have true arctic cold not far away. 

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s def not a Kocin cookbook pattern at all. But sometimes our best stretches are when we have to play with fire. Ala those 2007 and 2008 type stretches with lots of battleground between SE ridge and confluence to the north. But if we’re gonna deal with classic La Niña deep -PDO and a -PNA pattern, this is one of the better ones to try and make it work…you have excellent cross polar flow showing up almost the entire run so at least we will have true arctic cold not far away. 

Maybe. The details will/would determine the regional outcome across the sharp gradient I guess. In my experience a ridge through LA, MS, AL, GA, TN, KY usually doesn't work out well except in NNE. To me this looks like a recipe for big snows across maybe the high plains, upper mid-west, or southern Canada.

Not much sense in dissecting a 15-day ensemble mean though I guess. At least we're into winter-type "patterns."

[eduggs]

This says "cold rain" to me outside of the elevated interior. Except maybe if you could squeeze a SWFE in there somewhere. That's not really unseasonable though. And I prefer the GEFS and EPS anyway.

 

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, TheMainer said:

Topped out about 40 here, nice sunny day. Now getting a few mood flakes, not sure how since it's still pretty warm out.

Hoping for a December 07 repeat here but avoid the massive January (I think) cutter that pretty much wiped out pack almost out 

Cold wetbulbs right off the deck.

[Damage In Tolland]

Wind advisory or perhaps HWW on Tgiving Day with strong CAA and mixing . 

[ORH_wxman]

2008 also had a similar SE ridge (this is the setup for the prolific back to back snow events that month pre-Xmas)…the key to keeping it cold in New England is the big SE Canada vortex. If you don’t have that, you can’t hold that high/confluence long enough.

Here’s prior to the 12/22/83 SWFE as well. Big massive cold dump into the plains and Rockies with decent SE ridge but we had some good antecedent cold held in by that confluence in SE Canada..little mini NAO on the ‘83 look but it’s the same idea/concept…anything to hold confluence over SE Canada. 

 
 

 

Here’s the back to back SFWE setup in December 2013 as well…look at that SE Canada region…huge -WPO/-EPO fighting that SE ridge  

 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wind advisory or perhaps HWW on Tgiving Day with strong CAA and mixing . 

Oh boy here we go lol…f the winds…it’s a joke. 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Oh boy here we go lol…f the winds…it’s a joke. 

Cook the bird Wednesday 

[WxWatcher007]

45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not sure we’d need any NAO ridging with that look. That’s pretty cold. 
 

That SE Canada and Atlantic look is very reminiscent of early to mid December 2007…the WPO is more negative than ‘07 though…that’s pure cross polar there  

 

 

 

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s def not a Kocin cookbook pattern at all. But sometimes our best stretches are when we have to play with fire. Ala those 2007 and 2008 type stretches with lots of battleground between SE ridge and confluence to the north. But if we’re gonna deal with classic La Niña deep -PDO and a -PNA pattern, this is one of the better ones to try and make it work…you have excellent cross polar flow showing up almost the entire run so at least we will have true arctic cold not far away. 

We love to see it. Obviously it’s all about snow  come Dec 1 on but that cross polar flow looks excellent to give us chances. Nobody would scoff at a nice SWFE followed by deep cold. Just need to keep the Grinch at bay later in the month.

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here’s the back to back SFWE setup in December 2013 as well…look at that SE Canada region…huge -WPO/-EPO fighting that SE ridge  

 

I was in DC. The city missed on that first significant event that month but much of the region cashed in. It was then wall to wall winter after Jan 1.

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Cook the bird Wednesday 

Giving thanks under candlelight like in 1625?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here’s the mid December 2007 stretch that was quite kind to the region. Esp N of pike but even that 12/13 event got your area good. 12/16 hammered pike northward. You can see that big vortex in SE Canada. 
 

That was my first winter in Greenfield. That was a really snowy month here. I remember going to the Christmas tree farm with knee deep snow in the fields.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Looks like all teleconnections are pretty neutral actually on all guidance especially dec 1-10

Yeah when I look at the pattern, doesn’t necessarily scream +AO to me at the moment. 

[CoastalWx]

For the first time in a long time, we got money in the bank up in Canada. I’ve also noticed some of those op  runs have a nice scooter high building in. I’ll take my chances.

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully the Pacific doesn’t break down quickly. If I’m going to be picky, I don’t want to see those heights lower in the GOA like the EPS tries to show. I’ve seen that before. Luckily the gyre in Canada is huge for now.