November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...

[George001]

4 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Honestly, What is wrong with this guidance? It’s so much worse than it was, and I don’t even think that’s debatable anymore.  WTF? 

I’m not entirely sure, but I’ve heard that guidance struggles the most during seasonal transition periods and during la Nina’s. The struggles during La Niñas I would think is because they are northern energy dominant, and models struggle the most with energy originating from the north as it’s very sparsely populated up there. We are currently in a seasonal transition period and La Niña conditions are present, so I would expect these struggles to continue.

[radarman]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

West is best today. 
 

That back edge in view from Treehouse

[CoastalWx]

EPS is cold To end. That’s a massive vortex in Canada. Would be nice to get some NAO ridging.

[TheMainer]

Topped out about 40 here, nice sunny day. Now getting a few mood flakes, not sure how since it's still pretty warm out.

Hoping for a December 07 repeat here but avoid the massive January (I think) cutter that pretty much wiped out pack almost out 

[WinterWolf]

42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS is cold To end. That’s a massive vortex in Canada. Would be nice to get some NAO ridging.

Good to hear.  
 

Every NAO that we’ve had over the last 3-4 years hasn’t done Jack for us.  In fact it’s hurt us more than anything.  
 

I’ll take some random transient ridging and run, thank you very much. 

[ORH_wxman]

55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS is cold To end. That’s a massive vortex in Canada. Would be nice to get some NAO ridging.

Not sure we’d need any NAO ridging with that look. That’s pretty cold. 
 

That SE Canada and Atlantic look is very reminiscent of early to mid December 2007…the WPO is more negative than ‘07 though…that’s pure cross polar there  

 

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not sure we’d need any NAO ridging with that look. That’s pretty cold. 
 

That SE Canada and Atlantic look is very reminiscent of early to mid December 2007…the WPO is more negative than ‘07 though…that’s pure cross polar there  

 

 

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/dec-13-2007

 

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/dec-16-2007

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not sure we’d need any NAO ridging with that look. That’s pretty cold. 
 

That SE Canada and Atlantic look is very reminiscent of early to mid December 2007…the WPO is more negative than ‘07 though…that’s pure cross polar there  

 

 

No, definitely don’t need it verbatim there, I was just thinking the NAO would help kind of pin that vortex more in Canada after a certain amount of time. Just to give it more staying power that’s all. I feel like the Pacific might relax a little bit over time.

[leo2000]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not sure we’d need any NAO ridging with that look. That’s pretty cold. 
 

That SE Canada and Atlantic look is very reminiscent of early to mid December 2007…the WPO is more negative than ‘07 though…that’s pure cross polar there  

 

 

Very nice theirs some chatter over on the other side of this forum about a robust positive AO we shall see. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, leo2000 said:

Very nice theirs some chatter over on the other side of this forum about a robust positive AO we shall see. 

+AO? 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/dec-13-2007

Here’s the mid December 2007 stretch that was quite kind to the region. Esp N of pike but even that 12/13 event got your area good. 12/16 hammered pike northward. You can see that big vortex in SE Canada. 
 

[eduggs]

15 day EPS anomaly charts haven't meant much lately - not sure if they ever really did. But even if we accept it as is, the neg anomalies over SCal and pos anomalies in the Deep South are red flags. This is a common and recent failure mode. Yes, more so for the Mid-Atl than for NE... but I'd still rather be in the Whites or Maine for a "pattern" like that.

[leo2000]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

+AO? 

Yes, Don was mentioning it with evidence to back it up a forecast that shows it latter now. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Here’s the mid December 2007 stretch that was quite kind to the region. Esp N of pike but even that 12/13 event got your area good. 12/16 hammered pike northward. You can see that big vortex in SE Canada. 
 

Ya pretty similar, hopefully we can squash the SE ridge a bit more to spread the wealth this time. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

+AO? 

Looks like all teleconnections are pretty neutral actually on all guidance especially dec 1-10

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

15 day EPS anomaly charts haven't meant much lately - not sure if they ever really did. But even if we accept it as is, the neg anomalies over SCal and pos anomalies in the Deep South are red flags. This is a common and recent failure mode. Yes, more so for the Mid-Atl than for NE... but I'd still rather be in the Whites or Maine for a "pattern" like that.

It’s def not a Kocin cookbook pattern at all. But sometimes our best stretches are when we have to play with fire. Ala those 2007 and 2008 type stretches with lots of battleground between SE ridge and confluence to the north. But if we’re gonna deal with classic La Niña deep -PDO and a -PNA pattern, this is one of the better ones to try and make it work…you have excellent cross polar flow showing up almost the entire run so at least we will have true arctic cold not far away. 

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s def not a Kocin cookbook pattern at all. But sometimes our best stretches are when we have to play with fire. Ala those 2007 and 2008 type stretches with lots of battleground between SE ridge and confluence to the north. But if we’re gonna deal with classic La Niña deep -PDO and a -PNA pattern, this is one of the better ones to try and make it work…you have excellent cross polar flow showing up almost the entire run so at least we will have true arctic cold not far away. 

Maybe. The details will/would determine the regional outcome across the sharp gradient I guess. In my experience a ridge through LA, MS, AL, GA, TN, KY usually doesn't work out well except in NNE. To me this looks like a recipe for big snows across maybe the high plains, upper mid-west, or southern Canada.

Not much sense in dissecting a 15-day ensemble mean though I guess. At least we're into winter-type "patterns."