November 2025 OBS Discussion

[ForestHillWx]

I didn’t check the low, but the top layer of ground was frozen. 

[donsutherland1]

There was a heavier snow shower in the Harriman, NY area this afternoon.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be unseasonably cold. There is potential for New York City's Central Park to experience its first freeze of 2025 tomorrow morning. The 1991-2020 normal first date is November 21. The 1961-1990 baseline was November 11. Last winter's first freeze occurred on November 30.

Saturday and Sunday will see a snowstorm blanket parts of the Great Lakes Region. Chicago and Milwaukee could see 6"-12" of snow. Detroit could pick up 4"-8". Toronto could see 3"-6".

Sunday and Monday will be somewhat milder. Showers are possible on Monday as a cold front moves across the region. Generally colder than normal conditions could then continue into or through the second week of December. Severe cold appears unlikely through at least the first 10 days of December. Nevertheless, December 1-10 will be a solidly colder than normal period. 

Moreover, a storm could affect the region on Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing 0.50"-1.50" precipitation to the region. There is a distinct possibility that New York City could see its first measurable snowfall of the season. Interior sections have the highest probability of seeing accumulations of snow.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.16°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was -3.12 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.081 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.2° (0.8° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.5° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[BxEngine]

13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

There was a heavier snow shower in the Harriman, NY area this afternoon.

Came through here as i was putting up some outdoor decorations. Perfect timing to get the season started off right.

[IrishRob17]

9 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Came through here as i was putting up some outdoor decorations. Perfect timing to get the season started off right.

And we thought all your decorations went up on November 1st each year 

[MJO812]

Just now, IrishRob17 said:

And we thought all your decorations went up on November 1st each year 

My tree has been up since November 1.  I have been done decorating since then.

I wanted to do it earlier this year because wife is 30 weeks pregnant and we have alot coming up.

[IrishRob17]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

My tree has been up since November 1.  I have been done decorating since then.

I wanted to do it earlier this year because wife is 30 weeks pregnant and we have alot coming up.

Nice. I'm not judging, just bustin balls. I put some lights outside on Labor Day Weekend as it's nice to sit out there in the evening with a cocktail under some lights. One of our trees goes up Columbus Weekend and gets decorated for fall/Thanksgiving. That tree will obviously now get decorated for Christmas and then for Saint Patrick's Day, after which it will get put away. It's the dark time of the year so I like to bring it some light. 

[donsutherland1]

Central Park has recorded its first freeze of the 2025-2026 season. The 1991-2020 normal first date is November 21. The 1961-1990 baseline was November 11. Last winter's first freeze occurred on November 30.

[bluewave]

Big story this year continues to be the strong W to NW flow  behind the lows racing by to our north. So far this year has had 63 days at Newark with wind gusts reaching 40 mph or higher. This resulted in the impressive sieche on Lake Erie

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Parts of the region saw some heavier snow showers yesterday. Binghamton wound up picking up 1.6". Even heavier snow fell in some of the lake effect areas. Syracuse picked up 10.3" of snow, breaking the daily record of 8.8" from 1958.

[SACRUS]

35 / 20 off a low of 28.  Clear and cold but dry, winds calmer -  cold day but not bad for putting the christmas lights up.  Overall cold but Tue/Wed looks wet (as much discussed)  Trough digigng into the east per euro deep - Gfs a bit less - but cold none the less, especially Dec 4-7.

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 70 (1990)
NYC: 69 (1990)
LGA: 69 (1990)
JFK: 64 (2017)

Low:

EWR: 15 (1955)
NYC: 14 (1875)
LGA: 17 (1955)
JFK: 25 (1989)

 

Historical:

1835: -11 °F below zero at Ft. Snelling, MN. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1896 - The mercury plunged to 51 degrees below zero at Havre, MT. It marked the culmination of a two week long cold wave caused by a stagnate high pressure area similar to those over Siberia during the winter. During the month of November temperatures across Montana and the Dakotas averaged 15 to 25 degrees below normal. (David Ludlum)


1898: Boston, Massachusetts on the 27th and 29th had 12 inches of snow the greatest 24 hour total for the month of November.
(Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) (Ref. Wilson Wx. Additional Info.)


1921: The Worcester, MA area was especially hit by a major three day ice storm that affected central New England. Trees and wires were downed over a wide area. Millions of dollars in damage resulted. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1930: Cold wave 14° at 2416 M St. N.W. in Washington, DC with 15° recorded on the 28th - (Washington Weather Records - KDCA)
The low temperature of 10 °F is the lowest ever recorded in Richmond, VA in November and also occurred on November 16th 1933.(Ref. Richmond Weather Records KRIC )

1963: Coastal storm with a 29.04 barometer and 1.55 inches of rain at KDCA and NW winds to 33 mph. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1966: High winds struck the Chicago, IL area producing extensive damage. Winds gusted to 55 mph along the Lake Front and 48 mph at Midway Airport. The Lake Front was the hardest hit with waves up to 13 feet high. Low lying areas were inundated and property damage was extensive. A newly constructed home along the Lake Front was demolished at Long Beach, IN.  (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1969 - Dense fog along the Jersey Turnpike resulted in a chain reaction of vehicle collisions during the morning rush hour. A propane truck jacknifed and was struck by a trailor truck, and other vehicles piled into the fiery mass. (David Ludlum)

1975 - Red River was buried under 34 inches of snow in 24 hours, establishing a record for the state of New Mexico. (The Weather Channel)
This was also a day for record temperatures. Some record lows were set from the Rockies to the West Coast. Fresno, CA dipped to 26° establishing their coldest temperature on record for November. Other daily record lows included: Butte, MT: -22°, Cut Bank, MT: -21°, Lewistown, MT: -11°, Casper, WY: -10°, Billings, MT: -5°, Reno, NV: 5°, Grand Junction, CO: 5°, Olympia, WA: 14°, Idyllwild, CA: 16°, Palomar Mountain, CA: 17°, Stockton, CA: 26°, Los Angeles (LAX), CA: 41° and Downtown Los Angeles, CA: 41°-Tied.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1985 - The temperature at Bismarck, ND, plunged to 30 degrees below zero to establish their record low for the month of November. The high that day was 4 degrees below zero. (The Weather Channel)
In contrast, an upper level ridge brought record highs to parts of the southeast including: Tampa, FL: 85°-Tied, Wilmington, NC: 83°, Charleston, SC: 82° and Savannah, GA: 82°-Tied. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - Snow blanketed the Upper Mississippi Valley, with heavy snow reported near Lake Superior. Up to ten inches of snow was reported in Douglas County and Bayfield County of Wisconsin. Brule WI received nine inches of snow. Heavy rain soaked the Middle Atlantic Coast States, while gale force winds lashed the coastline. Flooding was reported in Maryland and Virginia. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Nine inches of snow at Alta UT brought their total for the month to 164 inches, surpassing their previous November record of 144 inches. Snowbird UT, also in the Little Cottonwood Valley, surpassed their November record of 118 inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Strong Santa Ana winds diminished over southern California, but record cold was reported in some of the California valleys, with readings of 27 degrees at Redding and 31 degrees at Bakersfield. Gale force winds, gusting to 44 mph at Milwuakee WI, produced snow squalls in the Great Lakes Region. Sault Ste Marie MI finished the month of November with a record 46.8 inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1991:A tornado struck southeast Springfield, Missouri, causing F4 damage. Shortly after touchdown, the tornado reached F3 intensity, approximately 3 miles north of the town of Nixa. While crossing Highway 65, the tornado picked up a truck and dropped it onto a frontage road, killing one passenger and injuring ten others. The tornado intensified to F4 strength as it moved through the Woodbridge and Natural Bridge Estates subdivisions where 15 homes were destroyed. Altogether, two people were killed and 64 others were injured.

1998: A strong upper level ridge and surface high pressure brought record warm temperatures ahead of a cold front from the Midwest & southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic States. The morning low in Rochester, MN of 54° was actually higher than the previous record high for the date. The temperature reached a record high of 62°. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

2006: An upper level trough across the Rockies brought record low temperatures for the date including: West Yellowstone, MT: -26, White Sulfur Springs, MT: -22, Bozeman, MT: -18, Boulder, MT: -18, Ennis, MT: -18, Dillon, MT: -16, Townsend, MT: -14, Stanford, MT: -13, Livingston, MT: -12 and Virginia City, MT: -11. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2009: Western Texas Panhandle: Snow falls in the western Texas Panhandle with Nazareth covered by 4.0 inches and 3.0 inches just southwest of Amarillo, Texas. (Ref. WxDoctor)

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

NYC Metro-MUCH Colder weather is just ahead in next 2-3 weeks expecting some snow on the ground by Dec 15th maybe as early as Dec 5th.

WX/PT