November 2025 OBS Discussion

[Sundog]

Potential snowstorm day 9 on 6z GFS?

There could be something there, pattern looks good

[psv88]

51 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Looks like the snow level about 2100 feet here based on the radar beam height where the CC starts to show a mix. Bright banding over the south shore shows way high up it is snowing. Too bad it can’t be a month later. 

Where can you see that on RadarScope? I see Tilt 1 to Tilt 4 and see the height calculator generally online, but i don’t see how you can as accurate as 2100 feet. 

[MJO812]

38 with heavy rain

[steve392]

Nj dot trucks sitting on shoulders this morning for rain??  Was nowhere near areas that might see frozen precip. 

[uofmiami]

Had some brief wet flakes mixed in with the rain just now with the bright banding over Syosset, temp of 38. 

[anthonymm]

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Oh look the classic warm/wet to cold/dry and vice versa pattern. SE ridge comes back every time 

warm wet and cold dry is an unbeatable pattern

[qg_omega]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

You are really lucky to be living in such a beautiful region. The stronger winds and lack of ideal radiational cooling there are also a function of the warmer air masses in nearby Canada. Since really cold Arctic air masses usually begin with strong cold air advection followed by a few nights of high pressure and calm clear nights behind  the Arctic fronts leading to the great radiational cooling.

We haven’t been getting this cold pattern in the Northeast with Canada so warm. The Northeast needs good cold pooling near Hudson Bay which has become more rare over time.

The airport station that was established in June 1998. It’s in a uniquely cold area with excellent cold air drainage. So it can be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the village. But that microclimate is still a good proxy since it is currently experiencing its 2nd longest streak not dropping to -30 or colder. The #1 longest streak was several years ago.

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= -30 
for SARANAC LAKE ADIRONDACK REGIONAL AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Period of record: 1998-06-06
1	1103	2019-01-14 through 2022-01-20
2	1018	2023-02-05 through 2025-11-18
3	524	2000-10-31 through 2002-04-07
4	460	2007-03-08 through 2008-06-09
5	399	2011-01-25 through 2012-02-27
6	353	2016-06-30 through 2017-06-17
7	341	2004-02-21 through 2005-01-26
8	329	2012-03-01 through 2013-01-23
9	326	2013-02-21 through 2014-01-12
-	326	2010-01-12 through 2010-12-03

https://www.northcountrypublicradio.org/news/story/21443/20130218/why-lake-clear-is-so-very-cold

Feb 18, 2013 — The village of Saranac Lake has a reputation for cold. During the winter, it's frequently the coldest spot on the North Country weather map, sometimes the coldest in the lower 48 states. Overnight or early morning temperatures in January can hit 20 and sometimes 30 degrees below zero Fahrenheit.

That kind of cold is has brought the community a fair share of publicity over the years, but technically, that publicity should go to another community located about five miles outside of Saranac Lake: the hamlet of Lake Clear.

Watch the nightly forecast from WPTZ weatherman Tom Messner and you'll find Saranac Lake is often the coldest spot on the map. But that's actually not Saranac Lake's temperature.

The reading Messner and other forecasters are giving is recorded at the National Weather Service automated weather station at the Adirondack Regional Airport in Lake Clear. It's typically much colder there than it is in a short distance away in the village of Saranac Lake - sometimes as much as 10 to 15 degrees colder.

 

Enterprise

Sometimes the airport temperature is significantly colder than it is just a mile-and-a-half down the road in the hamlet of Lake Clear, where Bob Callaghan lives.

 

The same morning in mid-January that the airport weather station hit 31 below, Callaghan said he had minus 21 at his house. "The thermometer in the car definitely registers colder when we get in the area of the airport," Callaghan said. "Sometimes it's 10 degrees difference."

Why is it so much colder near the airport? What strange weather phenomenon is at work here?

Dave Werner started asking that question a few years ago. Werner lives in Malone and is a cooperative observer for the National Weather Service.

"Every day I'd compare my readings with all of upstate New York and Vermont," he said. "And it was so interesting to me that Saranac Lake [Lake Clear] was so much colder than every other place."

In 2008, Werner contacted the weather service's Burlington office and got an explanation.

"It's called cold air drainage," Werner said. "The bowl-shaped terrain around the Lake Clear airport is such that cold air settles or drains into the airport area, giving it significantly colder readings than are found in the village of Saranac Lake."

John Goff is a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Burlington. He says Lake Clear is higher up, "and it's an open area, an open kind of clear area at the top of a hill where the cool air can kind of just pool."

For people who live and work in Lake Clear, the bitter cold winter temperatures brought on by this microclimate are just a fact of life.

Deb Gauthier is the Lake Clear postmaster: "It was minus 31 yesterday. When I went out at lunch time it was minus 21. You don't go out with wet hair, and you bundle up. We live with it."

Surprisingly, the arctic temperatures cause few headaches at the airport, according to its manager Corey Hurwitch.

"Just our equipment sometimes starting up is a little more difficult in the morning," he said.

It was finally calm and clear, their low temperature was 2 degrees last night.  

[FPizz]

.43" of rain.  Wasn't expecting that.

[Sundog]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

Potential snowstorm day 9 on 6z GFS?

There could be something there, pattern looks good

For the people who are confused or don't know what potential means:

6z GFS:

 

0Z Euro:

 

 

 

[wdrag]

Back to the future:  Ensemble qpf storm track more or less southern Plains to the northeast USA next 16 days.  Ensembles have no snow prior to D10. but between D10-16 all ensembles try to bring snow accumulation down to the coasts (climo influence?). Nov 30th for now is the EPS next target day for a possible wind advisory.  That's D11. Let see if I cant get D1 right... NAEFS has us chilling a bit in early Dec. Have a good day! Thanks for all the overnight reports.

[NorthShoreWx]

10 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Seems that way, at least in the boundary, but it might stay dry.

Overnight rainfall here only 0.06".  Most of the precip was to our S and SW.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

Potential snowstorm day 9 on 6z GFS?

There could be something there, pattern looks good

Agree

Pattern is in the transition stage. 

[psv88]

33 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Overnight rainfall here only 0.06".  Most of the precip was to our S and SW.

0.07 here. 

[Sundog]

12z GFS for the people who were confused at my post earlier lol:

 

[Sundog]

The wave amplified much further west this run, so the low formed farther west and the cold didn't get a chance to dig as south as the earlier run either. 

Like I said, there is a trough in the east and some energy around, maybe something can happen. 

[uofmiami]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Overnight rainfall here only 0.06".  Most of the precip was to our S and SW.

0.13" for Muttontown & 0.11" for Syosset

[ForestHillWx]

Just seeing a long range paste bomb brings seasonal joy after the past few years. Nothing like a little hope-porn to get the tracking juices flowing. 

[eduggs]

I hate being a downer, but I'm not high on snow chances in the mid- or long-range yet. I think there will probably be a cold shot after Thanksgiving, but wintry chances locally will depend on very favorable wave spacing and evolution, which is still too low confidence for me to get excited. The good news to me is that we are transitioning into the season where we can realistically analyze the models for snow threats. The bad news is we are still in a rut where legit chances seem very hard to come by.

[Sundog]

15 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I hate being a downer, but I'm not high on snow chances in the mid- or long-range yet. I think there will probably be a cold shot after Thanksgiving, but wintry chances locally will depend on very favorable wave spacing and evolution, which is still too low confidence for me to get excited. The good news to me is that we are transitioning into the season where we can realistically analyze the models for snow threats. The bed news is we are still in a rut where legit chances seem very hard to come by.

We have had year after year where models in the medium and long range have had raging SE Ridges and wildly warm anomalies for December. 

I'll take models showing a nice trough in the east with some energy around and take my chances with that any day. 

[eduggs]

12 minutes ago, Sundog said:

We have had year after year where models in the medium and long range have had raging SE Ridges and wildly warm anomalies for December. 

I'll take models showing a nice trough in the east with some energy around and take my chances with that any day. 

I remember numerous modeled snowstorms at day 10 over the past few years. Even some as early as late October. Since there are 4 runs per day of each global model that goes out past day 10 (CMC, ECM, GFS), there will always be more modeled snowstorms than real ones in the long range. It doesn't mean much until it's inside day 7 on more than one model. I'd rather see negative height anomalies and deep trofs at day 10 too. But it doesn't mean I'm excited for any particular snow threat and it doesn't mean I think anything looks different this year than last.

What does feel different is that I've already observed falling snow locally on 4 separate occasions and observed accumulations twice. That feels different.

[Dark Star]

On 11/18/2025 at 12:43 PM, Brian5671 said:

That would just bring cold and dry to us-forcing the storm track well south.  

I would rather have a source of cold air, than hoping for the exact right setup...