October Hybrid: 2025 Edition

[WxWatcher007]

Although we're in the tropical doldrums, in recent years October has delivered several impressive subtropical or hybrid coastal storms in the region that have brought significant impacts to the coast and/or inland. Although uncertainty remains on the track and intensity of a coastal low that is expected to form later this week, the signal for impacts in SNE has increased. 

Cyclogenesis begins to occur off the southeast coast late week/early weekend. Although there will be some tropical influence, nobody should be expecting some sort of purely tropical entity to develop. You can see why below. 

As the system gets pulled north, energy from the Great Lakes region attempts to dive down and phase. Whether it is subtropical by then (unlikely given how the NHC handled a possible subtropical system earlier this season) is irrelevant. This is a coastal storm that will become quite strong and will be "enhanced" by a gradient to the north of the center. 

There are still differences in track and intensity that will determine if this is just a run of the mill autumn coastal, or something a bit stronger. The Euro keeps the core of the winds and rain to our south with a further south track. 

Meanwhile, the GFS is more robust, and brings the core of the system closer to the region. 

Regardless of track, this will be a sprawling system, meaning that you don't actually need to be in the center to get the most impacts, unlike a purely tropical system (which is NOT happening). 

While the system may bring some much needed rain, I don't think that's the story currently. Persistent onshore flow and wind may be the biggest stories. The extent of coastal flooding will probably depend on the exact track of the system.

Strongest winds are likely at the coast of course, but a stronger system with further north ticks could introduce some inland areas to windier conditions. With leaves on the trees that could cause some issues. 

 

As @CoastalWxsaid in the other thread, the best way to get wind inland would probably be to get this to peak near the Cape and then rip the low back west as it occludes. Not sure how viable an option that is though with so much likely to happen to our south with regard to the maturation of the low. 

[ineedsnow]

Icon stronger

[CoastalWx]

This could really give cstl NJ problems with how it moves west there.

[weatherwiz]

12z GFS continuing the theme...maybe even a bit more stout with wind potential, even inland to the Pike. 

edit: nvm...its status quo, maybe a tad weaker. I still had 6z up  

[CoastalWx]

Euro AI and Euro op all in. Go America. 

[kdxken]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro AI and Euro op all in. Go America. 

Everybody's in.

[kdxken]

This ought to send ditty into a lather. 

 

 

[OrangeCTWX]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro AI and Euro op all in. Go America. 

I’m looking at pivotal and I thought the EURO op seemed pretty south with the low compared to the GFS no?

[ineedsnow]

EPS seems to be north it's coming

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, OrangeCTWX said:

I’m looking at pivotal and I thought the EURO op seemed pretty south with the low compared to the GFS no?

You can ignore the exact low placement when you have a massive low with the LLJ and moisture train well to the north. Check out the area around the low pressure and how baggy it is, then look how tight the isobars are north of the warm front over SNE. 

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, kdxken said:

This ought to send ditty into a lather. 

 

 

Unfortunately for him we won't be mixing anything close to 850 lol.

[ineedsnow]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Unfortunately for him we won't be mixing anything close to 850 lol.

Some of your EPS members swing west after heading out

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, kdxken said:

This ought to send ditty into a lather. 

 

 

I’m rubbing the hose again 

[Typhoon Tip]

If that consensus verifies the QPF along the ORH spine and then again along the Berk's will probably over perform.

The wind is less a concern west of ~ I95...  However, with the oceans being potentially warmer than the air over top, the coastal zone may get bigger gusts/ mixed more momentum. 

[weatherwiz]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Unfortunately for him we won't be mixing anything close to 850 lol.

Obviously still early but seems like the best spot to really mix down stronger winds will be far eastern Mass/Cape Cod (surprise, surprise) but GFS has more in the way of some convective precipitation out that way. But we'll mostly be focusing on pressure gradient for winds and that will help inland. Def becoming a bit concerned for some power outage potential. Gusts 50-60 generally not overly concerning but will be with leaves. 

[ineedsnow]

Let's get this even stronger

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Let's get this even stronger

Work on getting this far north, first 

[weatherwiz]

39 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Let's get this even stronger

Stronger would actually be a negative for us I think. Stronger would yield quicker occlusion and alot of the processes would begin shutting down. Ultimately, would lead to less wind/rain, especially away from the coast. 

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Unfortunately for him we won't be mixing anything close to 850 lol.

Yup

 

[Cyclone-68]

I want a minimum of seven tropopause folds 

[Torch Tiger]

Inland winds look light. Nbd

[Damage In Tolland]

Hammer says it’s finally our time .We damage .

 

[cut]

Let's hope this is a precursor to many of these as we get into winter.

[ineedsnow]

46 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Inland winds look light. Nbd

who cares we drive to the beach! 

[CoastalWx]

Models have that weird pressure pattern over CT again and associated increase/decrease of LLJ.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Models have that weird pressure pattern over CT again and associated increase/decrease of LLJ.

 

[ineedsnow]

flooding is going to be bad on the coast

[ineedsnow]

18z GFS a bit weaker and further south.. still big impacts though