October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[psv88]

36 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Where I am I think it’s pretty likely. Dews are in the upper 20s and wind should be about calm. 

Dews are in the mid to upper 30s in our area now. 

[sussexcountyobs]

No frost or free,e warning here since we have had both already. It was a beautiful day reaching 57 for the high. Temp rapidly falling now. Now 44.5

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Dews are in the mid to upper 30s in our area now. 

I saw FRG has 29 dewpoint and ISP 31. I agree they’ll probably tick up overnight. It usually cools down pretty good where I am but I’m elevated 50 feet or so just east of 110. 

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I saw FRG has 29 dewpoint and ISP 31. I agree they’ll probably tick up overnight. It usually cools down pretty good where I am but I’m elevated 50 feet or so just east of 110. 

Yea they are lower than north shore areas I see on local PWS. Uptons point and click has our dews around 35 all night. 

[uofmiami]

DP is 29/30 in Muttontown, should be around freezing tomorrow for the low. 

[Sundog]

You can tell how fake the cold is, when someone sneezes the temperature jumps up several degrees. 

I was in the upper 40s but a 4 mph wind was recorded and it resulted in temps jumping into the lower 50s.  

[Tatamy]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

Yea they are lower than north shore areas I see on local PWS. Uptons point and click has our dews around 35 all night. 

I grew up in East Northport so I can tell you that the combination of the slightly higher elevations on the north shore and a very light breeze off the sound during the overnight hours messed up many a frost opportunity with this type of synoptic setup.  It’s why places in the center of the island and out by Westhampton are usually the cold spots.  

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

I grew up in East Northport so I can tell you that the combination of the slightly higher elevations on the north shore and a very light breeze off the sound during the overnight hours messed up many a frost opportunity with this type of synoptic setup.  It’s why places in the center of the island and out by Westhampton are usually the cold spots.  

Yep, and some of the earliest winter events before the sound cools down it rains north of 25A but snow south of there. 

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, and some of the earliest winter events before the sound cools down it rains north of 25A but snow south of there. 

Absolutely true.

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Absolutely true.

I moved here in Nov 2018 thinking I’d finally cash in on good winters here vs growing up in Long Beach. Then the luck areawide ran out lol (other than 20-21). 

[Tatamy]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

I moved here in Nov 2018 thinking I’d finally cash in on good winters here vs growing up in Long Beach. Then the luck areawide ran out lol (other than 20-21). 

Eventually the longer term pattern will change.  It’s well known that the north shore is the place to be on LI during winter storms with the added moisture from the sound entraining into the synoptic scale precipitation bands.  Now the pattern is more like that of 70s/80s with the coastal hugger storm tracks.  I moved out to PA in 2005 and you guys probably got 3x more snow since then through 20/21 than what I saw here.  

[Sundog]

27 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, and some of the earliest winter events before the sound cools down it rains north of 25A but snow south of there. 

I'm not far from the water, about a mile and a half. In November 2012 I had 8 inches of paste while LGA recorded 1 inch because of the station being right next to the East River. 

 

[FPizz]

38

[psv88]

55 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

I grew up in East Northport so I can tell you that the combination of the slightly higher elevations on the north shore and a very light breeze off the sound during the overnight hours messed up many a frost opportunity with this type of synoptic setup.  It’s why places in the center of the island and out by Westhampton are usually the cold spots.  

Yep. Was 39 now up to 39.8 with a breeze developing. Don’t see us going lower than 37

[uofmiami]

38 in Muttontown & 40 in Syosset. 

[snywx]

Another hard freeze here 

currently 27

[jm1220]

PWS nearby has 32. 

May be a little low, surrounding stations have 36-38. 

[psv88]

36.2, consistent with the other PWS in the area. A few of the colder local spots got down to 33/34, but nowhere closeby got to 32

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, Sundog said:

I'm not far from the water, about a mile and a half. In November 2012 I had 8 inches of paste while LGA recorded 1 inch because of the station being right next to the East River. 

 

That was a great run of early season snowfall from 2008 to 2018. The higher elevation event later in October 2008 followed by the historic late October 2011 snowstorm. Then the post Sandy snowstorm in 2012 and the SWFE in November 2018. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

That was a great run of early season snowfall from 2008 to 2018. The higher elevation event later in October 2008 followed by the historic late October 2011 snowstorm. Then the post Sandy snowstorm and the great SWFE in November 2018. 

Yep, that Nov 2018 SWFE snow was totally unexpected and had the impact of a MECS given it was during rush hour and no one planned for it. Driving back to Long Beach from Melville was like a car zombie apocalypse. And it was bad all the way to the immediate shore. I think it was supposed to be a half hour of white rain that’s it. 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, that Nov 2018 SWFE snow was totally unexpected and had the impact of a MECS given it was during rush hour and no one planned for it. Driving back to Long Beach from Melville was like a car zombie apocalypse. And it was bad all the way to the immediate shore. I think it was supposed to be a half hour of white rain that’s it. 

It’s really interesting how we also had great 11 year runs for snowfall in December and March also. OCT-NOV 2008 to 2018…DEC 2000 to 2010….MAR 2009 to 2019.

Following each of those runs it was like someone shutting off a switch during the respective months.

OCT and NOV haven’t featured any early season snows since 2018.

Our last historic December snowstorm was Boxing Day in 2010. Interior sections near BGM in 2020 got their historic December snowstorm near 40” since the storm hugged the coast too close near ACY for us to get the really heavy totals. Then the big cutter a week later on Christmas with all the damage and flooding at the ski resorts.

Then our least really big March with 30” on Long Island was 2018 and some areas did well in March 2019. Since then coastal sections have had nearly no March snow in the last 6 years. 

[uofmiami]

33.8 in Muttontown & 36.8 in Syosset this morning.  Davis vantage vue around the corner from my Syosset station had 33.1 at 2am but I question it personally. 

[lee59]

38 the low here, no frost

[sussexcountyobs]

31 here. Saw a few temps as low as 23 this morning in Allamuchy and Hampton.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, lee59 said:

38 the low here, no frost

I had my first frost on Saturday morning but was very patchy. 

[winterwarlock]

25 this morning...coldest of the season

 

I miss summer in fall

[Brian5671]

Growing season over here with a hard frost....32 for the low

[Sundog]

I couldn't get any lower than 42 degrees, the wind never died down long enough to let it drop further, it would always pick up here and there to bump tremps back up. But a couple miles south of me temps got down to 37 degrees. 

I'm just too close to the water I guess. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

29 degrees for a morning low at 8:00 am. Didn't quite top the 28 from October 10th. 

[SACRUS]

 

Low of 30 here, Now 39 / 34.   Dry 48 hours before cutoff system brings heaviest rains since Aug 13/Jul 14th 1 - 3 inches of rin Wed evening into Thu evening.   Looks to dry out and perhaps clear out Friday.   Cooler Nov 1 -6 before moderation around the 6th - overall near normal by then/ slightly warmer.