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October 2025 Discussion and Obs


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50 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

again school hours can be adjusted

do the first hour of school on remote learning if necessary

Sports and after school activities prohibit how much school hours can be adjusted, especially for fields that don't have lights, which are still many.  You also have to take into account travel from one school to the next.  Also bussing schedules

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55 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We tried this in the 70s and it was a disaster. Standard time is the way to go. It matches much better with our circadian rhythms. 

There's no debate 

So the Sun rising at 4AM in summer is what's natural? We have so much artificial light that "what's natural" is meaningless. Just having the lights on, watching TV and being on your phone completely negates any benefit from having standard time year round. 

The only natural rhythm is the one of equatorial regions if we are going to go the evolutionary route. 

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47 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Outdoor sports in January?   LOL:weenie:

Never played football? 

And have you noticed our temperatures lately? I used to play a little football here or there when it was like 20 degrees outside with bare hands. 

Mid 40s is actually quite comfortable for exercise and sports. 

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36 minutes ago, HailMan06 said:

Yeah I have to agree. IMO the two biggest causes for Gen Z’s academic struggles were remote learning during COVID and cellphone use in school.

My kids both learned remotely and were fine. I think this is overblown

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1 hour ago, Sundog said:

So the Sun rising at 4AM in summer is what's natural? We have so much artificial light that "what's natural" is meaningless. Just having the lights on, watching TV and being on your phone completely negates any benefit from having standard time year round. 

The only natural rhythm is the one of equatorial regions if we are going to go the evolutionary route. 

when i started teaching in 1988, teachers told me what a disaster it was in the 70s as they watched the sunrise during first period....kids at the bus stops in the dark, walking to school in the dark...

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

My kids both learned remotely and were fine. I think this is overblown

many kids did not do well, i was working in schools at the time. motivated kids did well, others did not, and the data bears this out. but hindsight is 20-20 and there was no playbook for this. over a million dead...the worst results in the developed world. my kids did fine online, but some kids just never logged in. 

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2 hours ago, Sundog said:

Never played football? 

And have you noticed our temperatures lately? I used to play a little football here or there when it was like 20 degrees outside with bare hands. 

Mid 40s is actually quite comfortable for exercise and sports. 

sure, if you have a good down parka.....i used to hike all winter, jogged when i was younger. it was cold. very much so.

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Tomorrow will be partly sunny and milder with highs reaching the middle 60s. However, a fresh shot of cool air will move into the region late in the day or at night. Following the frontal passage, parts of the region could experience their coolest temperatures so far this fall. Dry conditions will likely prevail through the remainder of the week.

In the 18 past years where Central Park saw at least two 80° or above highs and Newark saw at least two 84° or above highs during the first week of October, the temperature returned to 70° or above on at least one day during the second half of October in 17 (94.4%) of those cases. For all other cases, 84.1% saw at least one such high temperature during the second half of October. Therefore, the sharp cool spell very likely won't mean that New York City has seen its last 70° or above high temperature. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter.

The SOI was -3.48 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.487 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.9° (1.0° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

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On 10/13/2025 at 8:12 AM, bluewave said:

The one small piece of good news regarding all the tree damage starting with the March 2010 nor’easter is that many of the weaker trees are no longer around. Residents and power companies have been very proactive removing older damaged trees rather than waiting for another storm to blow them down. The landscape in a place like Long Beach is completely different due to them losing all their sycamores with the salt water damage in Sandy. 

That has not been my experience- we’ve lost almost all our ash in the last 10 years and now beech leaf disease is killing all the beech!

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3 minutes ago, LAVistaNY said:

That has not been my experience- we’ve lost almost all our ash in the last 10 years and now beech leaf disease is killing all the beech!

Globalism and all its wonderful side effects.

I lost a 60 year old Ash tree to the Emerald Ash Borer. It was a gorgeous tree with a beautiful canopy that provided tons of shade and a beautiful fall foliage. 

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14 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Globalism and all its wonderful side effects.

I lost a 60 year old Ash tree to the Emerald Ash Borer. It was a gorgeous tree with a beautiful canopy that provided tons of shade and a beautiful fall foliage. 

You mean trade? These pests come over on ships from overseas. Ships have been engaged in trade for 1000 years. Ships brought over a lot of what we may think of as native. It’s how it always has been and always will be 

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9 hours ago, psv88 said:

You mean trade? These pests come over on ships from overseas. Ships have been engaged in trade for 1000 years. Ships brought over a lot of what we may think of as native. It’s how it always has been and always will be 

Globalism can refer to cultural, political or economic exchange. Our over-reliance on Asia has imported a large number of invasive species. 

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Most areas in the +1 to +3 range for the first two weeks of October.

FWN….+2.1°

TTN……+1.2°

SMQ…..+2.1°

NBW….+3.1°

EWR…..+2.6°

NYC…..+1.7°

JFK……+1.6°

LGA……+0.9

HPN…..+3.4°

ISP…….+3.2°

BDR…..-0.2°

HVN…..+3.2°

DXR……+3.1°

POU…..+1.6°

 

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Most areas in the +1 to +3 range for the first two weeks of October.

FWN….+2.1°

TTN……+1.2°

SMQ…..+2.1°

NBW….+3.1°

EWR…..+2.6°

NYC…..+1.7°

JFK……+1.6°

LGA……+0.9

HPN…..+3.4°

ISP…….+3.2°

BDR…..-0.2°

HVN…..+3.2°

DXR……+3.1°

POU…..+1.6°

 

Not too bad considering the torch we had to endure

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15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

These departures are against are warmest normals. They're like +5 or better compared to 90s averages 

Central Park October average for 1961-1990 was 57.5 degrees. The 1991-2020 average is 57.9 degrees (although I calculated 57.8 degrees, not sure how the NWS got 57.9.)

So it's not that much warmer. Other months haver warmed more.

And wait until this decade goes into the averages. Temperatures have gone off the rails since 2020.

 

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58 / 52 partly cloudy and 96 hours of clouds finally gone with a brief return / warmup to the 70s for some (first since Oct 8th).  Chilly next 48 hours before warming up this weekend and most sites getting back to low - mid 70s Sat for some Sunday for most.  Front brings next round of storms/showers and rains Monday.  Beyond there back and forth overall warmer than normal.

 

GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 86 (1956)
NYC: 84 (1956)
LGA: 83 (2021)
JFK: 82 (1975)


Lows:

EWR: 32 (1937)
NYC: 32 (1876)
LGA: 39 (2009)
JFK: 37 (1999)

Historical:

1608: Evangelista Torricelli, the Italian physicist and mathematician who invented the barometer was born on this date. In 1644, Evangelista Torricelli, built the first barometer with mercury. The aneroid barometer was made first in 1843, the French scientist Lucien Vidie invented the aneroid barometer. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1876: Snow fell on the backside of a coastal storm from Virginia to New England. New York City, NY had its earliest 32° temperature and a half inch of snow. Fall River, MA reported 3.5 inches of snow. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1880: This was the beginning of what was called the  Mid West "Snow Winter of 1880-81". People were trapped in their homes and by the end of the winter it was reported snow was around 11 feet deep.

1880 - A violent early season blizzard raked Minnesota and the Dakotas. Winds gusted to 70 mph at Yankton SD, and snow drifts 10 to 15 feet high were reported in northwest Iowa and southeast South Dakota. Saint Paul MN reported a barometric pressure of 28.65 inches on the 16th. Railroads were blocked by drifts of snow which remained throughout the severe winter to follow. Gales did extensive damage to ship on the Great Lakes. (15th-16th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1947: People question attempts to weaken a hurricane by seeding it with dry ice after it made an unexpected turn off the coast making landfall near Savannah, GA with winds of 100 mph. One person was killed. Damage totaled $3 million dollars. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

1954 - Hurricane Hazel struck the Carolina coastline. The hurricane demolished every pier along a 170 mile stretch from Myrtle Beach SC to Cedar Island NC, and obliterated entire lines of beach homes. Hurricane Hazel also destroyed 1500 homes as it moved inland with seventeen foot tides. Winds between Myrtle Beach SC and Cape Fear NC gusted to 150 mph. Hurricane Hazel caused 163 million dollars damage, and claimed the lives of 98 persons. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1954: By 11 pm on the 15th, Hurricane Hazel had reached and crossed the waters of Lake Ontario, still sporting sustained winds as high as 60 mph. Hazel took direct aim at the heart of Toronto as it roared past at 49 mph. Toronto saw heavy rainfall before Hurricane Hazel on the 14th. The previous storm, in combination with the hurricane, resulted in significant flooding. 

1966 - Iowa experienced its worst late season tornado of record. In just one minute a twister tore through the town of Belmond leveling 75 percent of the businesses, and 100 homes, causing more than eleven million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel)

1984: The Monday Night Football game in Denver, Colorado, was played in a raging blizzard. 15 inches of snow fell with up to 34 inches reported in the nearby mountains. The Air Force Academy canceled classes for the first time in its' recorded history. 

1987 - Unseasonably cold weather continued in the eastern U.S., with thirteen cities reporting record low temperatures for the date. The low of 34 degrees at Montgomery AL was their coldest reading of record for so early in the season. Lows of 32 degrees at Harrisburg PA and 34 degrees at Parkersburg WV marked their third straight morning of record cold. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - The cold high pressure system responsible for the record low temperatures in the eastern U.S. began to move out to sea, giving way to a trend toward "Indian Summer". Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced golf ball size hail at Altamont KS and hail two inches in diameter at Yates City IL. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Hurricane Jerry made landfall at Galveston, TX, at 6 30 PM (CDT). Winds at the Galveston Airport reached 75 mph, with gusts to 100 mph. Tides along the island were six to eight feet, and rainfall totals ranged up to slightly more than six inches north of Beaumont. Three persons were killed when their vehicle was blown off the Galveston seawall into the pounding surf. Total damage along the Upper Texas Coast was estimated at fifteen million dollars. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Lower Michigan during the late morning. Two persons were injured when a tree fell on their camper at the Traverse City State park. While strong northerly winds ushered much colder air into the central U.S., unseasonably warm weather continued in the south central and eastern U.S. The afternoon high of 82 degrees at Bluefield WV was a record for October. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2005: On this date through the 17th, the summit of Mt. Washington, NH reported 34 inches of snow. The 24-hour record for the most snowfall occurred when 25.5 inches fell in 24 hours. (Ref. Wilson Weather History) (Ref. WxDoctor)

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More on the 1987 record cold

1987
Unseasonably cold weather continued in the eastern U.S., with thirteen cities reporting record low temperatures for the date. The low of 34 degrees at Montgomery, AL was their coldest reading of record for so early in the season.
Daily record lows included: Sterling (Dulles Airport), VA: 28°,
Trenton, NJ: 30°, Allentown, PA: 30°-Tied,
Columbia, SC: 32°-Tied, Harrisburg, PA: 32°-Tied, Macon, GA: 33°,
Baltimore, MD: 33°-Tied, Parkersburg, WV: 34°, Chattanooga, TN: 34°,
Islip, NY: 34 (later tied in 2006) °, Montgomery, AL: 34°, Bridgeport, CT: 36°,
Augusta, GA: 36°-Tied and New York (Kennedy Airport), NY: 39°.
Harrisburg, PA 32 °F
(The National Weather Summary)

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No chatter on the impact of the block the rest of the month?  While the Ideal Greenland Block shifts westward to Canada...its still a block and will be effective (I think) on sending eastward moving shortwaves Into negative tilt along and south of I80 for our area, the remainder of the month.  That should mean additional meaningful rainfall and a couple good storms.  

I monitor ECAI my cyclic guide to what should happen as I find it particularly useful on yes/no. 

Not sure if anyone saw the CF-squall line gusts near 60 MPH vicinity Cape May Monday morning.  Whether this occurs as attempted by the 05z EC OP 5-6 days in advance... it's a small possibility.

No thread for us but bumpy flights eastern quarter of the country later Sunday-Monday morning and some decent 1-3" rains.  

I'll be curious as to the drought outlook changes eastern NJ/se NYS/CT when it posts tomorrow morning. 

 

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1 hour ago, Sundog said:

Central Park October average for 1961-1990 was 57.5 degrees. The 1991-2020 average is 57.9 degrees (although I calculated 57.8 degrees, not sure how the NWS got 57.9.)

So it's not that much warmer. Other months haver warmed more.

And wait until this decade goes into the averages. Temperatures have gone off the rails since 2020.

 

The normals aren't simple arithmetic averages. In fact, with the 1991-2020 normals, it looks like they were piloting some sort of new method of calculating them in Ohio, where the normals are significantly above the means.

This is especially prevalent at Toledo, where the normal is an unbelievable 1.9F above the calculated mean. It appears to be a new methodology to factor in the warming trend, so more months are near or below average, instead of exclusively above average. Because of this change, even a "normal" year would be among the warmest ever recorded at Toledo. Just another way for them to hide the incline, I guess. :fever:

4em79C4.png

PHTqbdU.png

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2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The normals aren't simple arithmetic averages. In fact, with the 1991-2020 normals, it looks like they were piloting some sort of new method of calculating them in Ohio, where the normals are significantly above the means.

This is especially prevalent at Toledo, where the normal is an unbelievable 1.9F above the calculated mean. It appears to be a new methodology to factor in the warming trend, so more months are near or below average, instead of exclusively above average. Because of this change, even a "normal" year would be among the warmest ever recorded at Toledo. Just another way for them to hide the incline, I guess. :fever:

4em79C4.png

PHTqbdU.png

A "normal" year would be 10th hottest ever (excluding 2025's partial data). Note, as well, despite this "fib" factor on the normals, every single year since 2020 has come in above even these artificially elevated norms.  Prior to 2020, only four years were at or above 52.5F (1921, 1931, 1998, and 2012) and yet they want us to believe/accept that this is the new normal? What game are they playing?

pS9rhXW.png

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On 10/14/2025 at 9:08 AM, LibertyBell said:

Lows:

EWR: 32 (1932)
NYC: 37 (1988)
LGA: 40 (1993)
JFK: 37 (1993)
 

1993 was really interesting we went from endless historic heat to record cold in October back to historic heat in mid November followed by a historic winter.

I would say this is endless summer. At least it is in Ohio, not sure about New York City. This is one thing you often overlook by focusing on the anomalous past warm years, there were a lot of historic years that were VERY cold.

Looking at Cleveland, the first two weeks of October is running warmer than several historic Junes and even some of the coldest Augusts. Nobody would say June or August aren't summer months, just because they are colder than average. So if those months were colder than this October, and yet still considered to be summer, I would say you must accept that it is still summer.

The mean high temperature for October so far is 72.7F.

We can see there were 18 historic Junes with mean high temperatures for the month at or below that temperature, most recently in 1972.

4KxK8WU.png

And, for August, we can find one cooler year (1927) and one just 0.1F warmer than this October to date (1915). Nobody would say August 1927 wasn't a summer month.

pmtobqG.png

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6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I would say this is endless summer. At least it is in Ohio, not sure about New York City. This is one thing you often overlook by focusing on the anomalous past warm years, there were a lot of historic years that were VERY cold.

Looking at Cleveland, the first two weeks of October is running warmer than several historic Junes and even some of the coldest Augusts. Nobody would say June or August aren't summer months, just because they are colder than average. So if those months were colder than this October, and yet still considered to be summer, I would say you must accept that it is still summer.

The mean high temperature for October so far is 72.7F.

We can see there were 18 historic Junes with mean high temperatures for the month at or below that temperature, most recently in 1972.

4KxK8WU.png

And, for August, we can find one cooler year (1927) and one just 0.1F warmer than this October to date (1915). Nobody would say August 1927 wasn't a summer month.

pmtobqG.png

Looking at Newark, New Jersey, it's not as clear cut. It's teetering on the edge of summertime, as there is only one colder meteorological summer month in the expanded history (June 1903), although the mean high in June 1859 was only 0.1F warmer than the first two weeks of October 2025.

R4UmEDc.png

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Yea that mostly sunny forecast is a bust

Actually, the forecast was for clouds between 11 am and about 2 PM (at least I think from Fox5 yesterday), however, I see your point.  The NWS does say mostly sunny, while their Forecast Discussion does mention a frontal passage early this afternoon...

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