October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[Sundog]

11 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

felt like a november morning when i stepped outside my hands were freezing..

Any frostbite?

[winterwarlock]

Really not all that chilly today. Full sun rely keeps things from being cool

[psv88]

68 now. Pleasant 

[bluewave]

58 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It just seems more like it was when I grew up, which is fine and great to reduce my allergies and the bug population.

A lot of rain can be much more damaging to agriculture and gardening than too little rain.  

This dryness up here this summer with only 4.99” and the record heat was similar to the 2022 and 1999 back on Long Island. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2000	3.02	65
2	1966	4.15	0
3	2022	4.29	0
4	2017	4.76	3
5	2025	4.99	0

 

Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1999	4.00	63
2	2010	4.15	0
3	2022	4.68	1
4	2016	6.68	2
5	2005	6.92	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1966	3.89	0
2	2022	5.20	0
3	1999	5.56	0
4	1965	5.68	0
5	1993	5.71	0

 

[steve392]

48 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Keep this pattern going and it will be a different story for the reservoirs come Spring.  Not saying pattern will persist but a drier than normal pattern for Winter is not out of the question.  And I 100% agree if you have ag or garden / landscaping interests this pattern is not enjoyable.

Reservoirs here in NJ are already getting very very low.

[FPizz]

23 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Reservoirs here in NJ are already getting very very low.

[MANDA]

25 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Yes, this is what I mean.  Keep the dry pattern going through Winter and come Spring we will be significantly below normal.  Long ways to go but pattern has been rather persistent.  If we get lots of suppression from high pressure to our north as we move through Fall and Winter it will keep the dry pattern going.  Very possible.

[winterwx21]

70 degrees here and not a cloud in the sky. Great way to start October. I'm leaving right now for bow hunting for the first time this season. Perfect weather for it. 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

This dryness up here this summer with only 4.99” and the record heat was similar to the 2022 and 1999 back on Long Island. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2000	3.02	65
2	1966	4.15	0
3	2022	4.29	0
4	2017	4.76	3
5	2025	4.99	0

 

Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1999	4.00	63
2	2010	4.15	0
3	2022	4.68	1
4	2016	6.68	2
5	2005	6.92	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1966	3.89	0
2	2022	5.20	0
3	1999	5.56	0
4	1965	5.68	0
5	1993	5.71	0

 

2022 wasn't that hot though 1999 definitely was, I have great memories of that wonderful summer!!

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

This dryness up here this summer with only 4.99” and the record heat was similar to the 2022 and 1999 back on Long Island. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2000	3.02	65
2	1966	4.15	0
3	2022	4.29	0
4	2017	4.76	3
5	2025	4.99	0

 

Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1999	4.00	63
2	2010	4.15	0
3	2022	4.68	1
4	2016	6.68	2
5	2005	6.92	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1966	3.89	0
2	2022	5.20	0
3	1999	5.56	0
4	1965	5.68	0
5	1993	5.71	0

 

Three of my favorite summers in this list-- 1966, 1999, 1993.

Why not 2002?

2022 was not hot in any memorable way though.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

Really not all that chilly today. Full sun rely keeps things from being cool

the wind made it bad but now it's good 

no more wind

[donsutherland1]

October commenced with the arrival of the coolest air mass so far this season. After another very cool day tomorrow, temperatures will quickly moderate, rising to above normal levels by the weekend as an air mass that will challenge or break records in parts of the Upper Midwest moves eastward.

Tomorrow will be the coolest day. High temperatures will reach only the middle 60s tomorrow. New York City will see the low temperature bottom out in the lower 50s. Outside the City, widespread 40s are likely. A few of the colder locations could see the temperature bottom out in the 30s.

A rapid warmup will commence on Friday and a warm weekend lies ahead.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was +13.60 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.387 today. 

 

[winterwarlock]

73 today and its looking like a late August beach weekend.  Couldnt buy a decent beach weekend for about the first 6 weeks of the season but here we are now

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

73 today and its looking like a late August beach weekend.  Couldnt buy a decent beach weekend for about the first 6 weeks of the season but here we are now

Belmars highs are 72 this weekend.  Not a beach day. 

[ForestHillWx]

Cooled off at the soccer fields once the sun dipped behind the tree line. 56 now, going down to the low 40s tonight. 

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

73 today and its looking like a late August beach weekend.  Couldnt buy a decent beach weekend for about the first 6 weeks of the season but here we are now

with that northeast wind blowing you don't want to be on the beach. 

[winterwarlock]

28 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

with that northeast wind blowing you don't want to be on the beach. 

winds are forecasted to be from the southwest on Saturday and Sunday  so sorry to inform you

[winterwarlock]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Belmars highs are 72 this weekend.  Not a beach day. 

i see upper 70s for asbury park and for belmar on the weather channel ..do you want me to screen shot...ditto for weatherunderground. its likely temps will overperform just as they have each day this 2 day coolshot was first spotted. 

[TJW014]

Water's also still in the 68-72 degree range. Plenty warm for a swim/surf

[winterwarlock]

3 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Water's also still in the 68-72 degree range. Plenty warm for a swim/surf

these early to mid october beach days turn out to be gems as long as there is full sun which it looks like there will be.  No crowds and its like a little secret bonus...had one last year and the previous year and i think 3 years ago too

 

for beach lovers and sun worshippers its not about 90 degree and trying to beat the heat...its all about getting one extra day..if you arent a beach bum you just do not understand and you are free to roast yourself apple picking or getting dehydrated in some corn maze at 85 degrees doing your fall activities

[Sundog]

How in the world did Shirley on the east end manage to get calm winds with these NE breezes?

[SACRUS]

 

Highs

 

PHL: 74
EWR: 73
New Brnswck: 72
TEB: 71
TTN: 71
JFK: 70
ISP: 70
LGA: 70
ACY: 70
BLM: 69
NYC: 69

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

i see upper 70s for asbury park and for belmar on the weather channel ..do you want me to screen shot...ditto for weatherunderground. its likely temps will overperform just as they have each day this 2 day coolshot was first spotted. 

Ill screenshot for you from a real weather platform.  Use sunscreen, the sun is still strong.  Hope for a temp bust for you to enjoy more.

[psv88]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Ill screenshot for you from a real weather platform.  Use sunscreen, the sun is still strong.  Hope for a temp bust for you to enjoy more.

Weird.  Nws going with 77-78 up here 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

How in the world did Shirley on the east end manage to get calm winds with these NE breezes?

the winds calmed down this afternoon

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

Ill screenshot for you from a real weather platform.  Use sunscreen, the sun is still strong.  Hope for a temp bust for you to enjoy more.

I agree with warlock on this one. I don't know why NWS is going so low for that area. It will likely be higher than low 70s with the southwest winds. 

[MJO812]

56 here

[donsutherland1]

7 hours ago, psv88 said:

Weird.  Nws going with 77-78 up here 

The forecast is inconsistent with the AFD, which states:

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Our expansive high pressure system remains the dominant weather
feature through the short term period. This keeps the tranquil
weather pattern going into the weekend. Friday night and Saturday
night look mostly clear with minimal cloud cover. During the day
Saturday, it is a mostly sunny day. Highs on Saturday will be in the
mid to upper 70s. 

The NBM has consistently shown highs of 77°-79° for Saturday and Sunday. Moreover, if one uses "South Belmar" (Lake Como) and "West Belmar," one gets the warmer forecast.

Belmar:

South Belmar:

 

West Belmar:

 

[bluewave]

My coolest morning of the fall so far with a low of 46°.

 

[steve392]

44 degree's once i got to Mahwah.  What a feeling getting that fresh cool air with some remnants of fire places still in the air.  Awesome out!