Spooky Season (October Disco Thread)

[CoastalWx]

What a torch after the two day mild down starting Saturday. Just amazing.

[Damage In Tolland]

Deep summer well thru Roctorcher 

[WxWatcher007]

6 hours ago, Snowedin said:

That Christmas was something else. I remember looking for the switch for the a/c that morning and then realizing we’d turned it off nearly 2 months prior! That day was the definition of torch.

Truly horrific. 

[TheMainer]

23 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

We have a white Christmas well over 90% of the time, that day and one back in the 90s are the only ones I remember (not living in Southern Maine) that didnt meet the white Christmas definition. 

[Great Snow 1717]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Deep summer well thru Roctorcher 

even into the first month of winter(November) ???

[CoastalWx]

30 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

even into the first month of winter(November) ???

Could be Mowvember to start?

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Could be Mowvember to start?

you are wishing for that lol...

[CoastalWx]

32 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

you are wishing for that lol...

Nah by then it’s time for the tables to turn.
 

But to be honest I’m pretty numb to worrying about winter. I’ve learned not to worry over it after these last several years. 

[Great Snow 1717]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nah by then it’s time for the tables to turn.
 

But to be honest I’m pretty numb to worrying about winter. I’ve learned not to worry over it after these last several years. 

There are some good values on condos available in Florida..

[WxWatcher007]

13 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

There are some good values on condos available in Florida..

Why move to Florida when we can do sunny, dry, and AN without the humidity DJF?

[Great Snow 1717]

33 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Why move to Florida when we can do sunny, dry, and AN without the humidity DJF?

is that a serious question?????

[WxWatcher007]

33 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

is that a serious question?????

Of course not lol

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Of course not lol

Yeah it’s more like RDU now up here. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Man 85-90 this weekend and into part of next week 

[CoastalWx]

38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man 85-90 this weekend and into part of next week 

Amazing stuff. 

[CoastalWx]

Chilly Wednesday and Thursday for sure. The usual weenies will say COC only to replaced by sweaty COC this weekend.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Monday should be the warmest for a while.  Mid 80s possible. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

 

lock it in....

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

 

lock it in....

I don't care about the blue hallucinations but would love to have the rain.

[Typhoon Tip]

This is interesting from the MJO desk/CPC

"...support for the formation of a Central American Gyre (CAG) event during October."

Just inferring from hemispheric mode one would guess CAG vulnerability - wasn't looking but a corroboration from the MJO folk adds to that.  

Notable risks are TC's.   Opal and I suspect Sandy ( just for examples) were born out of CAG gyres, just to name a couple. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Re the fantasy range GFS solution above. 

you know, there are two types of fantasy.  Those that don't look even physically very plausible - if physically not impossible.  Then there are those that look physically plausible - because they are both physically possible, but fit some sort of back ground (non-linearity) about the flow behaviors.   This is like pattern zeitgeist ?   It fits the spirit of the times.  That solution above does.  We keep repeating these +PNA foot prints, perhaps masked at times. 

Anyway, we've seen this sort of turn out mid latitude snow or snow supportive synoptic modes some half of the Octobers since 2000 - as an aside ... prior to that approximate yesteryear, much rarer was that ever the case.  Something switched around then to make October 10 - TG holiday span more prone to this - we all know what that is so won't get into it. 

This is part and parcel why I feel our best odds at expressing winter being a front loaded one.  There's background tendencies to fire off blocking early ...and this fits that leitmotif as discussed, as a possible harbinger of a proficient blocking autumn into early winter.   That's not me trying to sell November/December 1995, either.  Really just what it says... our best odds at expressing winter - perhaps at all. I don't have faith in winters anymore, as being sort of Currier&Ives nostalgic reduxing, due to this gradient saturation issue. It's hard to block during the DJF period, when the gradient becomes seasonally extreme, because in more basic physical sense, fast flow does not go around short(er) curved surfaces if the flow exceeds the critical velocity threshold - it can't because the centrifugal acceleration exceeds the Coriolis and that opens it back up...  that basic physical premise has become a delimiter during recent (decades) of winter, with increasing tendencies.  

2015 was unique ... as an afterthought.  That was resonance at a huge scale. The entire WPO-EPO-N/A arc was in on it, and so... such large spatial domain doesn't have short radial geometry - the flow can remain fast around a -WPO/-EPO loading pattern that way.

[Typhoon Tip]

On 9/29/2025 at 10:16 AM, TheMainer said:

We have a white Christmas well over 90% of the time, that day and one back in the 90s are the only ones I remember (not living in Southern Maine) that didnt meet the white Christmas definition. 

you realize you just doomed not only this year, but probably the next 6 of them due to your declaration - nice goin'

[tamarack]

On 9/29/2025 at 3:07 AM, Snowedin said:

That Christmas was something else. I remember looking for the switch for the a/c that morning and then realizing we’d turned it off nearly 2 months prior! That day was the definition of torch.

December 2015 blew away warmth records all over the East.  At NYC the average was 50.77.  That's +11.9 compared to the 1991-2020 norms and was 6.2° milder than their 2nd warmest (set last year).  In fact, 12/2015 was 2.9° milder than the November norm.

[tamarack]

On 9/29/2025 at 10:16 AM, TheMainer said:

We have a white Christmas well over 90% of the time, that day and one back in the 90s are the only ones I remember (not living in Southern Maine) that didnt meet the white Christmas definition. 

I record snow depth at 9 PM, and have had bare ground at that hour of Christmas night four times in 27 years - 1999, 2006, 2015 and 2020.  On that last date, my 7 AM report for cocorahs was a fast-disappearing 2", as we had moderate RA and near 50 at report time.  The 54/43 temps were +28, the greatest AN for any day since moving here in 1998.  (2nd is +27 on 3/22/2012.)